INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS): Led by an unheralded offensive line that allowed the fewest sacks in the league for the third straight season, the Colts racked up an NFL record third down conversion rate of 56.1 percent last season. QB Peyton Manning, WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, and RB Joseph Addai, who added 1,071 yards rushing as a rookie, are back for another season. The defense, which repaired a poor performance against the run late in the season, must replace a pair of cornerbacks but has solid depth and should be adequate. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 92-52 ATS: 72-68-4 HF: 32-31-1 HD: 3-3 AF: 21-16-2 AD: 14-13-1 Sportsbook Buster: The Colts are 8-1 ATS versus the Chiefs, who they play at home, Nov. 18. Sports Betting Angle: Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS the week after playing division weakling, Houston.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The Jaguars took several steps back from their 12-4 season in 2005 and the blame rests squarely with an offense that was anemic last season. Head Coach Jack Del Rio fired three offensive assistants and the Jags will opt for a power running game, relying on the tandem of Maurice Jones-Drew 941 yards) and Fred Taylor (1,146 yards), taking some heat off QB Byron Leftwich, who lacks a quality receiving corps. Despite a bevy of injuries, Jacksonville's defense finished second in the NFL. If Leftwich remains healthy and the offense improves, the Jaguars could challenge for a wild card spot. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 77-67 ATS: 73-65-5 HF: 27-23-2 HD: 12-7-1 AF: 12-19-1 AD: 22-17-1 Sportsbook Buster: The Jaguars have covered four straight games against the Steelers, who they meet in Pittsburgh, Dec. 16. Sports Betting Angle: Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS the game after a double-digit loss.
TENNESSEE TITANS (8-8 SU, 11-5 ATS): The Titans won six of seven games down the stretch, mostly because QB Vince Young began to demonstrate his extraordinary talent, proving himself to be a player who could take over a game and make things happen. Sadly, Young is just about on his own now that top rusher Travis Henry (1,211 yards) and wideouts Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade, the top two pass catchers, have left the team. The defense, which had only 26 sacks last year, was devastated by the loss of CB Pacman Jones, who now has bigger problems than man-to-man coverage. Even with the explosive Young, it's tough to envision the Titans back in the playoffs. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 81-63 ATS: 71-67-2 HF: 21-26-1 HD: 13-10 AF: 10-13-1 AD: 24-21 Sportsbook Buster: The Titans are 0-9 ATS as road favorites of less than three points after a SU win. Sports Betting Angle: Tennessee has covered four straight against both Atlanta and Tampa Bay, who they meet on successive weekends, Oct. 7 and 14.
HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS): The Texans finished 28th in offense last season and QB David Carr, who suffered 43 sacks, was sent packing, making Matt Schaub the starting quarterback. The addition of former Packer Ahman Green gives Houston a veteran running back and Andre Johnson, who caught 103 passes last year despite numerous double teams, is a quality receiver. The offensive line, long a problem area, still needs a left tackle. The defense improved as the season went on but the Texans just don't have enough quality overall to make a move up the division ladder this year. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006) SU: 24-56 ATS: 39-40-1 HF: 4-6 HD: 16-13-1 AF: 0-0 AD: 19-21 Sportsbook Buster: The Texans are 4-13 as a non-division underdog of more than three points. Sports Betting Angle: Houston is 5-1 ATS versus Jacksonville, who they play on the road Oct. 14 and at home Dec. 30.
Legend: SU = Straight Up ATS = Against the Spread HF = Home Favorite HD = Home Underdog AF = Away Favorite AD = Away Underdog
Third of an eight-part NFL betting preview series Next: Analyzing the AFC West
BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS): The Ravens abandoned their ?good defense, no offense? tag once Head Coach Brain Billick began calling the plays six games into the season. The return of rickety but reliable Steve McNair at QB, the drafting of highly regarded guard Ben Grubbs and the upgrade of Willis McGahee at RB should keep the attack humming. The always intimidating defense lost a stud in LB Adalius Thomas but don't expect defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to be any less aggressive. It's not a stretch to see the Ravens at 7-0 before their bye week. Then comes a brutal second-half slate that includes the Chargers, Patriots and Colts, back-to-back-to-back. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 81-63 ATS: 79-69-6 HF: 34-15-2 HD: 8-9-3 AF: 10-16 AD: 23-17 Sportsbook Buster: The Ravens are just 2-9 ATS versus the Dolphins, who they play in Miami, Dec. 16 Sports Betting Angle: Baltimore has been one of the most reliable home favorites in the NFL the last nine seasons, amassing a 34-15-2 record (.693) ATS.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-8 SU, 8-7-1 ATS): There's no question that in QB Carson Palmer, WR Chad Johnson and RB Rudi Johnson, the Bengals have the offensive explosiveness to compete with anyone. But can Cincinnati Head Coach Marvin Lewis finally construct a defense worthy of that high powered offense and, just as importantly, can the Bengals stay out of trouble with the law? The Bengals had nine players arrested in a nine-month period last year, which, clearly is no way to build a winning football team. Cincinnati has the talent to be 10-6 but could just as easily finish 6-10. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 54-90 ATS: 60-80-4 HF: 11-18-2 HD: 15-24 AF: 9-3 AD: 24-34-2 Sportsbook Buster: The Bengals are 7-1-1 ATS their last nine games versus the Patriots, who they face, Oct. 1. Sports Betting Angle: Cincinnati has been a bad bet at home, forging just a 26-42-2 record (.382) ATS in Paul Brown Stadium, the last nine seasons.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): Mike Tomlin brings his ?Tampa 2? defense from Minnesota to Pittsburgh, ending the 15-year reign of Bill Cowher as Steelers head coach. The return of defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau will ease the transition and Pittsburgh will maintain its 3-4 alignment, though help is needed at linebacker to ease the burden on safety Troy Polamalu. After suffering a motor cycle accident before the start of last season, QB Ben Roethlisberger is at full health and a return to his Super Bowl winning form of 2005 is eagerly anticipated. Like Cincinnati, Pittsburgh could finish anywhere from 10-6 to 6-10, depending on how the team performs. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006) SU: 85-58-1 ATS: 73-67-4 HF: 29-33-1 HD: 6-3 AF: 17-14-2 AD: 21-17-1 Sportsbook Buster: The Steelers are 11-2 ATS at home on Monday night, where they play Baltimore, Nov. 5 and Miami, Nov. 26. Sports Betting Angle: Pittsburgh has covered six straight games ATS at Cincinnati, where the teams meet, Oct. 28.
CLEVELAND BROWNS (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS): Winless in division play a year ago, it's difficult to make a case for a change of basement residence for the Browns this season. There's uncertainty at quarterback where Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson and rookie Brady Quinn (if he ever signs) are vying for the starting job but the running attack, led by recent arrival Jamal Lewis, operating behind guard Eric Steinbach and No. 1 draft pick, tackle Joe Thomas, should be improved. The Browns were 27th in total defense last year and the play of that unit, alone, probably won't be good enough to keep Cleveland from finishing in the AFC North cellar again. By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1999-2006) SU: 40-88 ATS: 58-68-2 HF: 10-11 HD: 18-22-1 AF: 2-0 AD: 28-33-1 Sportsbook Buster: The Browns have lost seven straight ATS to the Steelers, who they play at home Sept. 9 and on the road Nov. 11. Sports Betting Angle: Cleveland is 0-6 ATS when facing a division foe at home the game after playing a non-conference opponent.
Legend: SU = Straight Up ATS = Against the Spread HF = Home Favorite HD = Home Underdog AF = Away Favorite AD = Away Underdog
Second of an eight-part NFL betting preview series Next: Analyzing the AFC South
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