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[H1134]How To Get Big But
by Rob Mitchell, Rob
One of the most important things about trading is the management of the risk on your trade positions. Let's face it, if the market just doesn't go anywhere while you are in a position, you just cannot gain from it. So, depending on market volatility, you really cannot control to any degree what your gains will be. You can, however manage what your losses can be to some degree with good risk management techniques.

The principle is simple but it is really hard to do (all these examples will be based on a long trade, use the opposite for shorts). When entering a trade, I simply do the opposite of what I feel. That's right, buy when the market is falling and sell, when it is rising. If trading on a daily time frame, to buy for example, I might like to see the market at a 3-5 day low, or below a moving average of some reasonable length. Then, I like the particular interval I am in to also be down. For example, I will buy on a down day.

I have attended money manager conferences and listened to industry professionals talk about how they will buy into strength. This is great in a bull market, but in today's uncertain markets, in my opinion, it is a recipe for disaster.

Let's look at the logic of it. That stock market spends a good portion of its time alternating up and down without making any ground. This is true on just about any time frame. Research suggests this is true around 66% of the time. That means you have a significant edge over random entry using this concept for trade entry alone. Further, it tells us that as the market moves higher (on a buy) there is that much less to go before it turns around and continues back down again. As a result, it can be much lower risk to actually enter a buy when the market is declining (to some measure of its alternating range) because the amount I stand to lose is lessened.

So, even though it is very uncomfortable to buy while the market is declining, I know it is reducing the amount of risk I will take on the trade at the same time.

Let's consider the psychological factors as well. If I am feeling really scared that the market is falling when I am putting on a long trade, I know most other market participants are feeling the same thing. This assures me that my fear to buy is really an indicator that measures current market sentiment. If sentiment is really that low, then I reason we must be running out of sellers to drive the market lower.

Let's look at it from a numerical standpoint on where I might place a stop loss order. If the recent previous low on the S&P is at 1280 and the market is declining into that area, I am thinking the market will likely react and go back up at that level. If I buy near that level, I can place a stop beneath it by a reasonable margin, say 1275 and have that be a reasonable measure, if it gets hit, as to whether I was really wrong or not. So as the market declines to that level, my mind is oscillating between the greed of buying the absolute low and the fear of it continuing to fall. But, for every point it falls, it is one more point reduced from my risk. At some point in this equation and mental oscillation, I pull the trigger and buy (preferably at 1280 or so, if I can get it).

Using this mental exercise to enter a trade has taught me much. I have done this for years and have been very successful with it. Now, having trained myself in this way, I experience fear if these conditions are not true. This is true because I want to get a good deal, and this translates into small stop sizes and smaller losses when I have them.

What does this mean in the big picture? By keeping my losses reasonably small and going against the majority, I do not get demoralized by trading. That keeps me in good spirits while the market is beating people up (which is just about the time it will take off for a really good move). So the famous wisdom of Rudyard Kipling stands: it is important to keep your head about you when all about you are losing theirs.

You can't win if you don't play the game. The market has a way of demoralizing its participants just before the very best moves. By keeping your risk managed, and your spirits high while trading, you will always be there when the market decides to deliver you a really big trade (the one thing you cannot control). Make sure you are there to benefit from the spoils of the trading battle.

You can find good FOREX trading systems from vendors, but be warned over 95% of them are junk.

In this article we will look at how to find one with the potential for making capital gains.

1. Don't Buy a FOREX day trading system!

Most novice traders do this and lose.

Day trading simply does not work ? All short term volatility is random.

If you are trading FX, ignore the promises of profits, the reality is your account will get wiped out ? which leads me onto my next point.


2. Always ask for a real time track record

Most FOREX Trading systems don't have real time track records.

You do however get a hypothetical track record.

For those of you who don't know what this is ? it's a track record designed in hindsight, knowing the closing prices already.

No wonder they all make a profit!

Ask yourself this question:

Why would you give money to someone who does not trade their own system?

If they don't have the courage to trade it why should you?

Look for a track record of at least two years, ask for audited proof of the systems performance and this should be net of all fees.

3. Make sure you understand the systems logic

Never buy a black box system where the logic is not revealed.

The reason for this is that if you don't know the logic the system is based on you probably won't have the discipline to stick with it when it runs into a period of losses which all systems will do.

From understanding the logic comes confidence and from confidence comes discipline.

4. Drawdowns

Always look at the worst peak to valley drawdown and time to recovery and then ask yourself the question:

Can I handle that without throwing in the towel?

Many systems have great gains over the long term but can draw down by 50% or more ? if you are not happy taking this risk you will probably not stay with the system.

Always assume your worst drawdown is ahead of you.

5. Guarantees and support

I like to know who I am dealing with find out something about their past, their views and what support they offer and think this is something all FX traders should do.

I also like a money back guarantee as well so if this is part of the package all the better.

Reputable vendors if you ask serious questions will normally be more than happy to answer your questions and queries so do so and don't deal with a vendor until you feel comfortable with them.

Most FOREX trading systems sold are:

Junk and not worth the cash, the best way to weed them out is to do the track record test ? get a real one or don't buy.

That may not guarantee you currency trading success, but if it is over a long period of time and has produced profits you can at least assume the logic is soundly based.

Picking a FOREX system to trade is really all about using common sense, cutting through the advertising copy and seeing the facts.

If you spend some time shopping around, you can find one of the minority of systems that not only can deliver you value for money, but also give you big profit potential from global FOREX markets.

Article Source : Investing In Mutual Funds

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Both Rob Mitchell & Kelly Price are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Rob Mitchell has sinced written about articles on various topics from Finances, Investing and Trading and Finances. Rob Mitchell is co-owner, researcher and head trader at , an internet website specializing in cyclical stock index swing trading.. Rob Mitchell's top article generates over 2900 views. to your Favourites.

Kelly Price has sinced written about articles on various topics from RSS, Learn Trading and Forex Trading Forex. GRAB 2 X FREE TRADER PDF'S AND MUCH MORE! On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including features, downloads and some critical FREE Trader PDF's and more FREE. Kelly Price's top article generates over 165000 views. to your Favourites.
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