Volatility in real estate prices is not new to California. During the 1970s, real estate prices detached from typical valuations of three-times yearly income seen in the rest of the country. Once residents realized they could push up prices in their real estate markets to dizzying heights, they have been doing it ever since. Greed springs eternal.
In the late 1970s prices rose to nearly five-times yearly income in a widespread real estate bubble. After the crash, prices stabilized at around four-times yearly income for a few years before Californians inflated the next housing bubble.
In the late 1980s prices rise to over six-times yearly income. Since this bubble was larger, it took longer for prices to fall to sustainable fundamental valuations. In a six-year decline from 1991 to 1996 prices fell about 20% across the state again bottoming at four-times income.
The Great Housing Bubble is the third such bubble in the last 30 years, and it is the largest of all. The detachment from traditional measures of valuation was so extreme that it is difficult for many to comprehend. In most California markets, prices rose to over eight-times yearly income. This is more than double the stable, fundamental value. As of early 2009, most markets in California have corrected more than 35% from the peak in 2006. Prices are still falling, and they will continue to do so until the 4-times income ratio is reached again.
Each time the bubble bursts, the crash is incorrectly blamed on some outside force, and each time the rally is thought to be different than the rally in previous cycles. It never is.
Every homebuyer operating in the deflation of the Great Housing Bubble needs to consider what loan terms will be available in the future. At some point, most buyers become sellers. The future buyer will likely need to borrow most of the money necessary to complete a real estate transaction. The availability of credit and the loan terms this future buyer will face is the primary determinant of the price this buyer will pay for real estate.
During the rally of the Great Housing Bubble, buyers did not concerned themselves with the day they were going to become sellers. Why would they? There was an endless demand for properties, and buyers were paying whatever was asked. If they wanted a price above current market values to pay off a loan, all they had to do was wait. Once the bubble burst and home prices started to decline, the conditions people were accustomed to during the rally dramatically changed.
Anyone considering buying a home in the aftermath of a crash should think about the buyer who is going to buy their home from them at some point in the future, and more specifically, what debt-to-income ratio and loan terms this future buyer will utilize. This is important, because the amount of money this take-out buyer will pay for the home is completely dependent upon these variables. At most, a house is only worth what a buyer can pay for it. In a declining market with few qualified buyers, many of those qualified buyers will only make offers if the deal is exceptional or simply wait for further price declines.
In a market environment where prices are detached from fundamental valuations, bubble buyers face a daunting challenge just to break even on their purchase when the time comes to sell it. A future buyer must have favorable borrowing terms allowing for a high degree of leverage or they may not be able to borrow the prodigious sums borrowers during the bubble rally were able to obtain. If a future buyer is not able to borrow as much with their income as bubble buyers, then wages must increase over time to permit future borrowers to borrow the same sum and allow a bubble buyer to avoid a loss. Unfortunately, it will take many years for wages to catch up to bubble prices. Even when this occurs, and a seller can recover their purchase price, inflation will have diminished the value of those dollars. If the prices are adjusted for inflation, many bubble buyers will never see an inflation adjusted breakeven price.
For all our wisdom and collective experience, none of us knows what the markets will do next. Like an ocean current or a raging river, a financial market charts its own course. It is fickle and feckless and flows without regard to our hopes and dreams. The ebbs and flows of financial markets are meaningful to us, but in reality they are just movements in price; nothing more. Price rallies make homeowners blissful and renters bitter, while price declines make homeowners gloomy and renters gleeful. These feelings and emotions are independent of movements in price. The market just moves, that is all it does. It is benign, yet dangerous; it is indifferent, yet demonstrative; the market is a paradox which we must simply accept.
Despite the difficulty in market forecasting, many who have examined the residential real estate market point to continued declines through 2009 and beyond.
Alex Gwen Thomson has sinced written about articles on various topics from Home Management, Income Tax Return and Wrinkles. is the author of The Great Housing Bubble: Why Did House Prices Fall?Learn more and get FREE eBooks at:. Alex Gwen Thomson's top article generates over 673000 views. to your Favourites.