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[V159]Volatility In Stock Market
by Richard Stoyeck, Ric
Why is it that some people only buy one or two stocks? Others may have 15 stocks but have 50 percent of their investment assets in just one of those 15 stocks. In Wall Street we refer to this type of behavior as concentration. Some firms call it over-concentration. When this happens in a brokerage firm it is always considered dangerous. It is so dangerous, in fact, that if the brokerage firm is using a concentrated stock position as capital, then the market value of the security in question is given a haircut. This means that the full market value of the security is chopped by some fixed percentage in any capital computation. In other words, if you are over-concentrated, you don't get full value. Some of you may have margin accounts. As you know, StocksAtBottom.com advocates cash ownership of stocks. If you own stocks on margin, it is our opinion that you will get sold out on margin. Normally in a margin account you put up 50 percent of the value of the stock you acquire in cash. If equity falls below 35 percent, you get a margin call. Now, brokerage firms love it when clients have 15 or 20 different stocks in a margin account. If there are some bonds in that account, guess what, they love it even more. Why? Because brokerage firms know that stocks represent risky investments. Something can always go wrong in any one situation. Maybe something can go wrong in any two situations. It's tough to see something go wrong in 15 situations. That is the essence of diversification. SPREAD THE RISK AROUND. It makes a lot of sense. Some investors own 50 to 100 stocks. This is because they think they need that many to achieve the investment goals that they set out for themselves. In business school at a master's degree level they teach you that to achieve true diversification you need to own something approaching 14 equity positions. It has been the experience of StocksAtBottom.com that 6 to 10 different equity positions is sufficient to achieve diversification. The one thing we know for sure is that it's not one stock or two stocks. Own one or two and you get killed.

Putting all your eggs in one basket We advise all investors to own several stocks and to own more than one sector. Own more than one type of investment (that means equities, bonds, real estate, cash, you get the picture) or you will have problems. Sectors refer to stocks with broad themes. Examples are: * Energy * Semi-conductors * Housing * Auto * Consumer * Airlines * Personal Computers * Technology in general If you own 10 stocks, but they fall into only 2 sectors then you really have not achieved diversity in your portfolio. You see, when they come to get Ford Motor, usually General Motors is not that far behind. By the way, it's great on the upside to own everything in one sector when that sector is going your way. There's probably not a greater high in the world than when everything you own is going up. On the flip side, when you are overly concentrated in a sector that's heading down, lower and lower every day, there is no worse emotional low. The depression can be almost unbelievable. There's also the issue of owning more than one type of investment. There are equity investments, which are stocks. There are real estate investments, and bond investments. There are also venture capital investments, precious metals, and others such as oil and gas. To a large extent, you achieve diversity in your investment strategies by owning different types of investments, as well as investing in different sectors. Let's go into a few real life examples. We at StocksAtBottom.com believe we have already made the equivalent of a lifetime of investing mistakes, so learn from a few of ours.

Arrow Electronics It was Christmas week in the early 1980's. One of us was sitting at Bear Stearns as a limited partner at the time. We were doing very well as stockbrokers. It was the period of full commissions (no discounting), and clients were doing 10,000 share trades in $50 dollar stocks. Taking home an income of $500,000 to $1,000,000 in a year was no big deal at the time. We were loaded up on Arrow Electronics, a NYSE company in the semi-conductor sector. Business was fantastic, the future was bright, and things could not have been better. Since we were involved on the banking side as well, we had an open line of communication to the company. We knew we had a good thing going. The telephone rang on one of those beautiful days prior to Christmas when New York City is the place to be, Rockefeller Center all lit up with a 50 foot Christmas tree and all. "Hello." A harried response, "There's been a fire at the Tarrytown Hilton Executive Center, a lot of people are dead." "Okay, that's terrible, how does it affect me and by the way, what's for lunch today?" "Buddy, you don't understand," the dead pan voice says. "What don't I understand?" "The entire executive leadership of Arrow Electronics was in that fire." All of them, every one of them had been killed by this monstrous tragedy. It was the worst Christmas imaginable for the wonderful families of this dedicated group of execs. The families never recovered, the company never recovered in terms of the people that were left, and the stock took years to recover. It plummeted from $32 per share to $4 per share in a matter of days. The recovery was slow and hard, it was agony all the way back on this particular stock. Arrow Electronics is an example of putting all your eggs in one basket. It is an example of owning just one stock. SAB does not care how much you know about a company, things can go wrong and do go wrong. You simply cannot own just one company because the risk on the downside is too great. YOU MUST DIVERSIFY IN ORDER TO SPREAD THE RISK.

The Jewish tribe has an interesting factor that has helped them become spectacularly financially successful. I call it “the gift of psychological drive to prove something.” The Jewish tribe has considered itself chosen by God and oppressed by man at the same time (I contend that every ethnicity has been oppressed by man at some time or other but that is another story).

How in the heck has this helped the Jewish ethnicity progress you might ask? Well if you always feel like the underdog you have two choices. The first is to tuck your tail, give up, and hide. The other choice is to “toe the line” and work harder than other ethnicities in areas that are most likely to prove people wrong like education, professional trades, and as entrepreneurs. Steven Silbiger in his book “The Jewish Phenomenon” points to this aspect of the Jewish ethnicity that has allowed Jews to post spectacular financial and intellectual achievements as compared to other ethnicities on average.

You can use this psychological secret to your advantage as a stock market investor. Wall Street wants you to believe that you cannot (1) manage your own stock investments, (2) cannot pick your own stocks, and (3) cannot beat at their own game their “professional money managers.” They project this on you because they want control your money for a hefty fee. You can learn to “toe the line” by dedicating yourself to an organized path of personal study in the field of investing. A chip on your shoulder to prove Wall Street wrong doesn't hurt to motivate you to study hard.

Study a major area of investing. Examples are Dow dividend strategies. Momentum strategies, value investing, long term technical analysis. Some of the better people out there to read about include, Warren Buffet, George Soros, and William O'Neill. The key point to remember is to be in a constant state of open minded joyful study. This allows you to eventually learn most of what is out there and find just the right investing style for you. The right style makes the most sense to you and is the most comfortable way for you to invest based on your psychology.

I personally know of a marine welder who retired a multi millionaire because he drove himself in his free time to master his understanding of the stock market. Another example is a family friend who is now a wealthy and retired beautician who invested her savings and those of her high school principal coach husband's in no load mutual funds, the very simplest of al strategies. They are now retired millionaires as well.

The only thing holding you back from fantastic success in the stock market is your own beliefs about yourself. Change your beliefs to an “I can too!” philosophy and you will change your reality. Today I was buying a bunch of tacos at Taco Bell. The cashier told me that I should play the state lottery with the numbers that came up on as the food price total. I looked her calmly in the eye, smiled, and remarked, “My dear why would I play the lottery when I have the stock market which truly is a much surer bet?”

Article Source : How To Trade Stock

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Both Richard Stoyeck & Dr. Scott Brown, Ph.d. are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Richard Stoyeck has sinced written about articles on various topics from Politics, Finances and Foreclosure Help. Richard Stoyeck is the publisher of stocksatbottom.com. Subscribers get award winning stock ideas from one of Americas premiere money managers. Extraodinary track record has generated returns of 36% per year for 6 years. Subscribe today by visiting. Richard Stoyeck's top article generates over 22200 views. to your Favourites.

Dr. Scott Brown, Ph.d. has sinced written about articles on various topics from Best Mutual Funds, Finances and Car Parts. . Dr. Scott Brown, Ph.d.'s top article generates over 49500 views. to your Favourites.
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