On the 6th of November, an unprecedented meeting took place involving the Bank of England's monetary policy committee. At that meeting the bank decided to drop their interest rates by a huge 1.5%, bringing interest the interest rate to the lowest level seen since 1954. The rate currently sits at 3%.
But is this going to make any difference to the market as it stands? Unfortunately, in my professional opinion, the answer to that question is probably "no". It seems likely to me that most lenders are unable to compete and drop their interest rates by this 1.5%.It seems that the majority if not all of the lenders have failed to pass this reduction on to their clients and are holding their standard variable as it stands, regardless of the fact that his is now at least 6 months behind the times.
What has happened in both the UK and in the world markets is that, although the banks have indeed lowered their rates, the rates for funds from bank to bank have not decreased at the same level. The London inter-bank offered rate, or LIBOR as it is also known, is the rate at which the London financial institutions lend between themselves. Now whilst LIBOR has indeed decreased of late, it has not done so as much as the banks base rates. So although base rate drop would seem to help, it does not.
In light of what is happening with the credit crunch, and also because lenders bad lending books have become transparent and public knowledge, public lenders have become reluctant to lend to one another. This nervousness amongst lenders is what affects the LIBOR rate. Everyone in the finance industry is all too aware at the moment of the bad lending decisions that have been made in recent times, and with credit risk being such a hot topic lenders just aren't prepared to take any more risks.
The massive injection of capital which has been promised by the worlds different governments would surely ease the situation, I hear you say. I am sorry but this is not the case. Rumours have come to the fore that a stipulation of these injections is that there will be mandatory set lending percentage increases forced on the institutions over the coming year and with that in mind they are saving themselves for these. I don't know but what is clear is that there is very little money out there and that the rates are poor for any lending that is occurring.
I personally think that todays decision will have the effect of boosting consumer confidence, people will think that low base rates can only mean things are going to get better. That said they will soon realise this may not actually be the case, especially if their particular lender does not pass that increase on to them within their own mortgage. That said commercial finance should get cheaper as most commercial finance deals are based as a percentage over base rates so any deals that have been done in the past will benefit from this cut.
Irrespective of that, a lot of commercial lenders have bumped up their over base rate level to preempt any new customers looking to borrow. Equally, some lenders have already withdrawn their base rate tracker level or increased it so as to eliminate any possible risk of losing more money. After such a huge single cut in rates, and looking at the action being taken, it makes you wonder if these lenders actually saw it coming!
So in short will it have any effect? Well may be not in the short term but I would like to think may be even hope that over the coming months this recent reduction will find its way to the pumps as it were. If it doesn't and doesn't soon then all I can say is in the immortal words of Dads Army, We're all doomed, doomed I tell you. Let's hope not hey?