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[D149]Deforestation And Climate Change
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From the handy Webster dictionary the entry for ?cult? is: ??great devotion to a person, idea, object, movement, or work (as a film or book); especially: such devotion regarded as a literary or intellectual fad.? Devotion to a fad is the key idea. It is an apt description of the mother Gaia cult of eco-fascist hyperbole and irrationality ? devoted to implausible and unscientific ideas and abstract Marxist ideology. The current ?green? cult is no more intelligent, rational or environmentally friendly than the earth cults of Sumeria, Assyria, ancient Egypt or the 2000 year old pagan cult centered at Delphi in Greece. Nor is it more enlightened and relevant than the Druidic cults which were smashed by the Romans in Gaul and Britain. Cults are simply bad news.

And this is apparent if one takes a long view of history and civilisational development. One of the great historians ? the Frenchman Braudel ? wrote a magnum opus called, ?The Mediterranean in the ancient world.? It should be required reading in high school. This book best illustrates the power of viewing reality for what it is. Braudel is perhaps the best historian of the last 100 years. He focuses on what he calls the ?longue duree? or the long view of history, wrapping up geography, social movements, technology and trade improvements along with leadership, to form holistic ideas about civilisation's advance. It is Braudel in fact that brings the development of civilisation into clear focus.

In his great work on the Mediterranean Braudel makes some important claims that should enlighten the reader about how civilisation advances and why cults are impediments to our development. Braudel rightly ascribes the creation of villages and then urban centers to trade; a division of labor; early capitalism and the creation of institutions of laws and mores. The nexus of the above was centered for many practical reasons in the ?garden of eden? or early Mesopotamia. From there the structures of civilisation spread out to cover the Near East and Aegean.

As trade and technology developed from agriculture through to the copper and bronze ages [about 5000 b.c.], society became wealthier, more urban and more open to ideas, higher culture [advance pottery and textile production took off about this time], and more creative in devising political and intellectual solutions to satisfy economic and spiritual needs. In fumbling around for a spiritual dimension most Neolithic and ancient societies developed the earth goddess or mother fertility cult. As Braudel points out from southern Russia to Egypt this cult was supreme until the times of the Roman empire which smashed the last earth cult at Delphi in 170 AD.

What is interesting in Braudel's work, written in the 1960s is his description of climate change. Braudel uses archeological data and many sources to rightly ascribe civilisational change in the Mediterranean area to massive upheavals in climate. For instance in 1200 BC the Hittite, Mycenaean and Cretan civilisations literally vanished within 30 years. No evidence of invasions, war, human interference or disease has been found to account for this collapse. Migrations of people did exist of course but not on the scale to bring down 3 wealthy empires within 30 years. Something else happened and that was massive climate change ? caused by a warming period that ensured drought, a lack of food production, starvation and ultimately societal collapse.

Braudel recounts the migrations of people in and around 1230 BC from the arid areas of the Mediterranean to those areas that were still receiving rain. Hence the central plateaus of Turkey, Western Greece, Syria, Palestine and other domains that were not receiving rain, were depopulated. North Western and Eastern Greece, Attica [central eastern Greece], parts of Ionia [Turkey's Aegean coast], and Macedonia became the recipients of these population movements. The result? A complete reordering of civilisation including a huge impact on trade and technology development; writing; pottery and textile manufacturing and even fertility.

So what is the relevance of this tale?

Braudel who is perhaps the smartest historian of the past 100 years ascribes one of the great civilizational falls in all of history, the collapse in 1200 BC that outlasted that of Rome's demise in 476 AD in length of time and societal calamity, to climate change. Natural climate change it should be noted. There were no Co2 emission linkages to the global warming that wiped out 3 civilisations, nor was there $100 billion given to eco-institutes to warn the Hittites that the earth goddess was angry. Nor were there eco-prophets flying in private jets to various conferences announcing the end of the world. Climate change just simply happened and there was not a damn thing that the local Mycenaean King could do to stop it.

In the 'longue duree' of history the cycles of climate occur with no linkages between Co2 gases and temperature. This is the why the modern eco-cult is so dangerous. There are literally thousands of climate change episodes throughout history that have nothing to do with Co2 or any other gaseous emissions. Yet the cult of mother earth will ignore all of this. The cult ignores rational investigation; historical patterns; archeological and ice core evidence; non-land based temperature readings; and anything that challenges its orthodoxy.

In Braudel's vision of history the earth cults were shattered by more advanced and rational economies and societies. Ossified, impervious to meaningful change, hierarchical and anti-reality, the earth cults stretching from Assyria to Egypt and beyond were doomed by more advance and less hubristic empires.

If you want to save mother earth and appease the earth goddess Braudel and others would suggest you do something concrete: privatise the oceans to stop over-fishing; clean up your cities; protect your rivers and lakes; and ensure that your society is wealthy and able to use technology to protect natural resources. Setting up an intolerant earth cult to rail and snarl against natural climate patterns, would be as Braudel would say, a completely ignorant view of history's ?longue duree?.

Global warming is a problem that needs serious attention and discussion. People all around the world are wondering if the climate change is a consequence of human activity or is the Earth just going through a cycle of evolution. Scientists have been studying global warming ever since 1960 when an Oceanographic Institution observed that the Arctic ice was starting to melt. In 1995, when global warming had already become one of the most controversial issues for environment agencies (EPA), almost 20,000 square km of ice had already melted in the Arctic pouring fresh, cold water into the oceans and leading to climate change.

By examining temperature and salinity in the world's oceans and comparing them with patterns, researchers were able to understand some of the aspects related to the climate change as a result of increased global warming. A very good example is provided by the ocean currents that drive the Gulf Stream. Further melting in the Arctic could change the circulation of those currents and cause Britain's temperature to decrease with almost 6'C.

What would happen if the ice kept on melting? Well, a new Ice Age is a very strong possibility. If the warm-water currents shut down, there wouldn't be any warm water for many of Earth's regions and the climate change would take place. Still, no climate change was, is or will be sudden. If that would happen today, the dramatic results would be revealed as a disaster that would include season alteration with the possible dissappearance of summer, dry weather or quite the contrary only rain and snow. In other parts of the globe droughts and firestorms would destroy everything in their path. Some places on our planet could become unhabitable and people would starve or freeze to death. There are many possible scenarios and none of them looks good.

Can we do something to prevent all this from happening? Specialists are trying to increase the awareness of the people who can do something about global warming. Yes, climate change is an issue everyone is well acquainted with. The risks are big and they involve the whole population of the Globe, but we are not doing anything to stop our mistakes. On the contrary, we are all giving a helping hand. Pollution is one of the main culprits of climate change. Coal, oil and gas industries are making millions in the era of development and very few of them care if the environment is protected from all the waste. People rely on these energy sources to travel, to eat, to heat without giving a moment's thought towards global warming, climate change and a disastrous future. A friendly environment without ice melting and the rising of water levels is a very far to reach target.

Earth's climate systems are extremely sensitive. They can suddenly swift from one mechanism to another and it may not be the right one (e.g. climate change caused by global warming). There are many strategies to avoid pollution and, as a consequence, the climate change. People are advised to choose healthier, cleaner energy sources such as solar power, wind and wave energy, fuel cells and hydrogen powered cars. Still, these solutions are expensive and not everyone can afford them.

In the opinion of some researchers, simple gestures could make a big difference in the case of global warming. We must all remember that oceans are essential in the distribution of life-sustaining water. They are the planet's largest reservoir of water and the climate change affects them as well. So, to lower the global warming level and avoid causing acid rains, hurricans, flooding and droughts, we might want to consider cutting down on fuel, recycling and quit dumping our waste in the most inappropriate places. All this can lead to a healthier style of life.

Another theory developed on the global warming issue is the constructal theory. It sees the Earth as a heat engine that dissipates the power produced through air and water currents. Based on this theory, scientists are able to predict some of the climate changes that will occur in desert and tropical forests, as well as in temperate zones and poles. The main characteristics that help reduce the uncertainty about climate change and global warming are: the sun's temperature, the solar constant (amount of incoming solar radiation), cloud cover and greenhouse factor (concentrations of aerosols and greenhouse gases to establish the quantity of energy trapped by the atmosphere). By studying these factors we may be able to improve the ability to predict what would happen and, with the help of instruments monitoring critical present-day conditions, to set up global warming patterns. Alternative reasons for the rise in temperature were given throughout the decade, changes in solar and volcanic activity being often incriminated. These are just suspicions as no actual proof was provided to sustain these affirmations.

The truth lies in the reorganization of the ocean currents circulating around the Earth and mainly the Ocean Conveyor (including the Gulf Stream) which distributes a large amount of heat around the planet. If that would be affected, and it may be by global warming, climate change wouldn't hesitate to appear. However, that doesn't mean we can keep polluting the planet. We must stand up and say no to gases that affect the atmosphere, the ozone layer and our natural habitat. Learning more about global warming and the climate change can make a difference in the future of our children.
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