-------------------- WELCOME & CONTENTS-------------------- Hello again, and welcome to another edition of theTrainerTrackStats newsletter. Included in this letter is your chance to win one of five free copies of TrainerFlatStats, the statistical trainer guide for the flat season, aswell as a preview of the novice events at this month's Cheltenham festival.We're now pretty much into a 'calm before the storm' period, with aquiet spell in terms of quality racing as the best horses are primedfor their respective assaults on the 24 races that make up this year'sCheltenham Festival.This issue, I've done some research on the six non-handicap noviceraces at the festival, as well as the usual newsletter features.I hope you enjoy it, and - as ever - feedback is welcomed at enquiries@trainertrackstats.com ---In this issue: - Introducing: Nag Nag Nag! - System analysis: "Cheltenham Novice Events" - Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats - The TTS Joke... - Tomorrow's qualifiers-----------------------------------INTRODUCING: WWW.NAG-NAG-NAG.CO.UK-----------------------------------I'm delighted to report that my new racing forum, Nag Nag Nag ('The Home of Racing Ranting')is now operational. The blog is online, and some of my analyses / newsletters / other ramblings will appear here in the next couple of weeks. A discussion forum can be found there too, in time for some healthy debate around matterspertaining to Cheltenham!So please have a 'butcher's' at my new site, and let me know what you think![Going forward, the big idea is that it becomes much less about my thoughts, and increasingly a place for you, dear readers, to share your views on the racing world.]Have a squint at http:\www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk soon!-------------------------------------------SYSTEM ANALYSIS: CHELTENHAM NOVICE EVENTS-------------------------------------------NOTE: SINCE I WROTE THIS PRICES HAVE CHANGED, AND RUNNING PLANS ARE CLEARER...SO PLEASE CHECK WHICH RACES YOUR SELECTIONS ARE NOMINATED FOR BEFORE BETTING!It's now only twelve days (at time of writing) to flagfall at the Cheltenham Festival, and the action is sure to be thick and fast from the very first race.There are six novice events that are not handicaps: two each on Tuesday, Wednesday andFriday. (In this humble scribe's opinion, the Thursday of the meeting is something of a damp squib all round...)The Festival gets underway with the traditional first act, the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, runover two miles and half a furlong. Its a race that Irish love to win, as it sets them up withGuinness tokens for the week!Seriously, the Irish do often get off to a flying start, and this year their team is stronger with no fewer than four of the first five in the betting crossing the sea to race. De Valira looks the pick on form (Aran Concerto is likely to run in another race), but he never wins hisraces by much. This could lead one to believe that he only ever does enough, and is thereforeunexposed. Alternatively, one could argue that this is as good as he is. Although I think he is probably unexposed (he was beaten in a very strange heat last time), Iwouldn't want to side with him in this race.Rather, I'd be interested in the 10/1 currently available about Hide The Evidence. Havingcarried all before him in novice hurdles in Ireland (4 wins from 4), he took on the big boyslast time out, and was not disgraced in finishing 20-odd lengths behind Hardy Eustace. In thecontext of this race, that was a very sound effort.Amaretto Rose, from Nicky Henderson's yard, is the favourite, and she's done nothing wrong in three facile wins to date. Personally, though, when I'm betting a horse, I like to know what itfinds off the bridle, as Rosey's unlikely to win this race on the bit. Given that the one time shewas asked a question (last year's Aintree bumper), she found nought, I'd be happy to pass over,though she's a decent mare and gets a 7lb allowance.You can see a fuller analysis for this and the following novice races at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlNext up, and a potentially thrilling race (as ever!) is the Irish Independent Arkle Novices' Chase.This has been the hunting ground for aspirant Champion Chasers in the past, and again it looks a very warm race, though strength is not necessarily in depth.The top three in the betting, Fair Along, Don't Push It, and My Way de Solzen, seem to me to bea class apart from the rest. Fair Along will almost certainly lead and he is a very game little horse (he's a very little horse!). Indeed, it's far from impossible that he'll run them ragged from the front. But, given that he's likely to have horses take him on for the lead, he may be a spentforce by the time the big guns play their hands, turning in.Don't Push It remains an enigma to me, and could easily win the race. The ratings though, suggest hehas a bit to find, and I'm not sure this is his best trip. So I'll swerve McCoy's ride, cognisant thatthis is a bad strategy at the best of times!This leaves My Way de Solzen. To drop back to two miles for last season's World Hurdler (staying champion hurdler for those unfamiliar with the new nomenclature) may seem a curious move, but Ihave every faith in My Way's trainer, Alan King, who I believe to be one of the best in the business (having learned from one of the best in the business, the late David Nicholson).My Way was comprehensively beaten by Fair Along at Sandown earlier in the year, but the way he stopped to a walk up the hill that day suggested he wasn't quite right. Particularly given we knowthe horse get at least another mile.At 7/1 (8's on Betfair), I think this horse has a cracking chance and, bar a fall, I cannot conceiveof him being out of the frame. The soundest each way punt of the meeting for me.Further down the lists, Pablo du Charmil looks interesting. He's got a lot of improvement to find onwhat we've seen to date, but he's unbeaten this season (3 from 3) and comes from the David Pipe stable, so will very likely be shorter than his current 25/1 (30 on Betfair) come the day. A back tolay opportunity, I think...Full ratings at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlWednesday's novice events feature the Ballymore Properties Novices Hurdle (formerly the Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle) and the Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Chase (formerly the Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Chase! Sorry...)These are the staying events for novices, and its the hurdle that opens the card.This race is Aran Concerto's preferred engagement, and his trainer has been making very flatteringnoises about the horse. Suggesting its the best he's trained (he being mighty Irish trainer Noel Meade)might be enough to make some people run to the bookies with their life savings. However, for a cynical old sot like me (old and sottish before my time I hasten to add!), I seem to remember himeulogising similarly about a horse called Sweet Wake this time last year. That horse was sunk withouttrace in the Cotswolds and I'd be prepared to leave this one for others.There are three horses on the 9-1 mark, Wichita Lineman (doubtful in this race, as his betfair price of 25 reflects), Silverburn and Catch Me. The first named would probably win this if lining up, and I'm surprised connections have opted for the race on the Friday. (I might have been tempted to run him here, and then in the Friday race as well if he came out ok).Silverburn has solid form but has yet to prove he stays this far. Although 2nd over 2 1/2 miles on hishurdling debut (on a flat track), its interesting that he's been dropped back in trip to around 2 milessubsequently and, given the emphasis on stamina at Cheltenham, I'm giving this one the 'non-stayer' mark.Which leaves Catch Me. Another doubtful stayer, I get the impression that he's running here to avoid a rematch with De Valira, who readily put him in his place two runs back.So I've now removed the first four from the betting and I'm still looking for the winner... The one I likeis Tidal Bay, from the Howard Johnson stable. Although I'm always wary of backing Northern-trained horsesat Cheltenham (sorry guys, their record is simply woeful), this horse has been racing against the best,and a six length beating by Wichita Lineman was no mean feat. There were some very smart horses in behindthat day, and it was felt he raced to keenly as well. At the price, he will run very close if he settlesa bit better. There are no doubts about handling track, trip or ground either, as there are with so manyof his rivals.Full ratings at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlMoving onto the staying novice chase, run over what will be a thoroughly knackering three miles, I'mlooking for horse who jumps well and stays longer than the proverbial mother-in-law (with apologies toany mothers-in-law who may be reading this!). I reckon you can pretty much forget class - its guts thatwill win the day in this race...Luckily for me, the favourite and the class horse in the race, looked to be a very gutsy individual onhis last outing. I'm talking of course about Denman, who remains unbeaten over fences after three facileromps, and a good battling performance last time against Don't Push It. I'm fairly convinced that the reason Don't Push It is going for the Arkle is to avoid a rematch with Denman here.When they met over course and distance (albeit the New Course) in November, Don't Push It came to win the race at the last, but Denman - who may have been dossing in front - saw him, raced off a straightline towards his assailant, eyeballed him, and then went away. You can watch the tape of the race onthe racing post website if you don't believe me, but this is one mean mother of a horse.He was off colour when beaten last year in the staying novice hurdle, and he's my nap of the meeting.I am not really inclined to mention any of his 'rivals', but for the sake of completeness will touchon a couple:Cailin Alainn - can't jump, won't jump, lay for a place because it won't get roundUngaro - each way chance, but 3m on a stiff track is likely beyond himDom D'Orgeval - a very good hurdler, doesn't have the form in the book to trouble the DenManGungadu - stable companion who, at 33/1, looks decent each way (He is however 85 on betfair so theremay be something amiss here... proceed only with caution.)Full ratings at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlA day off on Thursday, and so to Friday...The placepot nightmare that is the Triumph Hurdle starts the day, and maybe - just maybe - its going to be easy this year... Why? Well, I reckon there are two horses who stand out a mile. And no prizes ifyou've guessed they're Lounaos and Katchit. The first named is champion juvenile elect in Ireland, and ran a fine race when fourth in the AIG IrishChampion Hurdle (beaten only eight lengths by Hardy Eustace and just two by Macs Joy). On a literal interpretation of that form, this race is over before its started. However, she was getting a whoppingnineteen pounds from the principals that day. Nonetheless, it was an excellent run and continued her stellar rise up the ranks. She also get seven pounds from most of her rivals, and is a very decent 5/1 chance in my estimation.Her chief, and potentially only, threat in my book is the legendary Katchit. I use the term 'legendary'ironically of course, but I have to say that I've fallen for this horse in a big way. It is my heartand not my head that says he's a Triumph Hurdle winner (my head says Lounaos is a shoo in).He has won at Cheltenham no less than three times, he travels phenomenally well, he jumps impeccably and,when they come to challenge, he just keeps on finding. Alas, he will probably get beaten on the day, buthe owes connections nothing and has been a credit to all involved. My money will be on these two on the day, and its not inconceivable that they have this to themselves fromsome way out.Of the others, Mountain is a talking horse for me, and has a 'Mountain' to climb (sorry), in terms of improvement; Degas Art did beat Katchit to inflict his only defeat, but in three wins has beaten just 12horses and has to prove he can handle the hurly burly of a Triumph; Punjabi is a joke price on the back ofa 'stolen' win in a Grade 2 last time (yes, I did back the second that day!); Good Bye Simon has very goodform and will be staying on better than most - probably the biggest danger to the front two in the betting;Duty has some sound form but is probably not good enough; likewise, Liberate.Forget the rest!Full ratings at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlAnd finally, the Brit Insurance Novices' Hurdle, over three miles.Again, for me, there are two standout horses, Wichita Lineman and Flight Leader. On form, they're hard to split, but the latter of the pair if more than twice the price, based presumably on reputation. From the small stable of CL Tizzard (a TTS trainer no less!), this horse is tough and consistent, and will stillbe running when plenty have cried enough. Whether he has the bare class to be Wichita Lineman remains to be seen but, at the prices (9/2 vs 2/1), I'd take him.Elsewhere on the list, there are a number of other aspirants who'd like to call this race theirs...Labelthou would have a rock solid each way chance if lining up, but she has engagements elsewhere soI'd hold fire until you know which race she's going for.Sir Jimmy Shand is another who's won for TTS this year, but - though he's done it pretty easily in his two wins - he looked well held by Wichita Lineman last time, and is a doubtful stayer on that run too.Kazal has very good form in Ireland and the trainer says if the ground is soft he'll run in this race. Another one with a very live each way chance at 12/1 (only trading at 10.5 on Betfair!).The rest don't look good enough, but I must give an honourable mention in dispatches to Chief Dan George.This guy is tough as teak. He won't be good enough here, but he'll put up a damned good fight!Full ratings at: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/cheltenham.htmlAnd thats it for the novices - I won't be sharing my thoughts on the handicaps with you, largely becausethey are notoriously difficult to find the winners in.There will be one more bulletin before Cheltenham, when I'll nail my colours to the mast once and for all.This will be out on Monday 12th March, so look in your inbox for it! ------------------------------COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS------------------------------TrainerFlatStats, 'the TTS for the Level' is coming along well, and I've already unearthed some pretty exciting trends. It will be ready for release on 24th March, and you could get hold of a copy for free. Simply visit http:\www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and follow the prompts, and you'll be entered into the draw for the chance to win one of five copies of TrainerFlatStats, PLUS everyone who signs up will receive a FREE trial subscription to the daily emailservice for a full fortnight AND get the chance to buy TrainerFlatStats at a significant discount. Notethat this price will not be repeated, and its only available to those who support the new website. Moredetails at: http:\www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk -------------THE TTS JOKE-------------A woman went to a psychiatrist and said she was in great distress over her husband. "He thinks he's a horse. He sleeps standing up and he neighs instead of speaking. He even insists on being fed oats in a bag." said the woman "It's terrible!", "How long has that be going on?" asks the doctor. "Six, maybe eight months." she replied. "You have let things go too far," said the doctor. "Your husband will require a great deal of treatment and it will be very expensive." "I don't care about the expense," said the wife. "I will pay you anything -- anything at all to make my husband stop thinking he's a horse." "But it will cost many thousands of pounds, can you afford this amount of money?" asked the doctor. "Why of course we can," said the woman. "He's already won three races this season at Ascot!"-------------------------------------TOMORROW'S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS-------------------------------------Below are tomorrow's TTS qualifiers, subject to being 14/1 or shorter in the market:Sandown2.05 Tarotino Youll Do For Me Albertas Run5.25 Hoo La BalooChepstow4.45 My WorldThat’s all for this edition of the TTS newsletter. Until next time, wishing you continued health, wealth and happiness.Best RegardsMattwww.trainerflatstats.comwww.nag-nag-nag.co.uk