Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.
Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.
Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:
1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.
2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.
Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.
Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government's interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions.
Foreign exchange trading is one of the largest trading opportunities available. Every day, nearly two trillion dollars worth of foreign currency is traded on the bourses. Because of the immense size of this market, no single investor can substantially impact the market. Even multibillion dollar transactions are a relatively small percentage of the overall market, and can alter prices only slightly, and in the short term.
Foreign exchange trading is built on variations in basis points, where the basis point is one tenth of a cent (or one tenth of the smallest unit of currency being traded). For example, if Euros are $1.60 each, every $32 you put into Euros will net 20 of them. If Euros rise to $1.80 each, your 20 Euros will be worth $36.00.
The chief strategy for foreign exchange trading is watching the closing times of the major trading venues, which are London, the Asian markets and New York. A lot of banks will try to close out their positions at those times, which will cause the market to fluctuate.
Foreign exchange trading, like day trading in stocks, can result in an adrenaline rush mentality, and there's a lot of money to be made in small shifts in exchange rates. However, to make foreign exchange trading work for you as a day trader, you need to live the life and adjust your sleep schedule to be awake when the markets are open to capitalize on shifts.
You can also take a long term strategy on foreign exchange trading. This is where you're looking for long term trends rather than trying to run the races each day on daily shifts.
Key factors to keep in mind in terms of foreign exchange trading are the international news. In particular, any moves the Federal Reserve makes will change the exchange rates. Interest rate increases make the dollar more valuable (because holding investments in dollars that earn interest mean they accrue faster). Anything related to international conflict will drive the dollar down, and make other currencies more valuable.
A related type of foreign exchange trading is holding foreign bonds. This is how most foreign traders hold dollars, they buy US Treasury T-bills. A variation on this strategy is to hold foreign certificates of deposit. Basically anything rated in a foreign currency that's accumulating interest on a short term basis (or using a ladder strategy or options strategy) can be used to double dip foreign exchange processes, getting both the relative movement of currencies and the interest accrued.
Both Tomas Anderson & Matt Ehrlin are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.