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[M810]Mutual Funds Market Timing
by Jim Pretin, Jim
Ideally, investors try to buy a stock when the price has reached a support level (a level at which the price is as low as it will go) and sell the stock when it hits a resistance level (a level at which the price is as high as it will go). This is easier said than done. Most investors end up missing out on a continual rise by waiting for a stock to plummet first, or sell way to early by underestimating how high the price will go. In this article, we will focus on the two most popular strategies that you can use to invest without having to worry about market timing.

Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.

An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.

The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.

Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.

Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start.

If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.

Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.

What is the day-after options expiration? Equity and index options all expire after the close of trading on the third Friday of each month. The “day-after options expiration” then is usually the following Monday. Note: traders can find a calendar of options expiration dates on the CBOE's website at www.cboe.com.

Between 1970 and 2006, there have been 444 of these options expiration days. We're going to ignore the one in October of 1987 because as we all know on that Monday the market fell a whopping -20.47% and we don't want that to skew our results.

Of the 443 remaining days, 58.47% were followed by a down Monday with an average return of -0.15%. That's a pretty consistent observation in an otherwise bullish period - the day-after options expiration tends to be a down day.

The Twist

But while looking at this issue, we also found this little nugget - there was a strong correlation between the return on the day of expiration (Friday) and the return on the day after (Monday). When Friday was down, Monday tended to also be down, and vice-versa.

Showing this without the benefit of a table is a bit difficult, but let's give it a shot. When the expiration day (Friday) was up, the day-after (Monday) was also up 46.98% of the time with an average return of +0.04%. However, when the expiration day was down, the day-after was up only 35.55% of the time with an abysmal average return of -0.36%.

The point of all those numbers is that we can double the predictive power of the day-after rule by considering the returns on the day of expiration. If expiration Friday is down, smart investors might choose to avoid being in the market on Monday or even going short.

This isn't an entire trading strategy in and of itself, but it's so rare that we find an idea that has been able to successfully short the market over an extended period of time that we think it's a worthy addition to the trader's toolbox.

Happy Trading!

Article Source : Pg. 153

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Both Jim Pretin & Michael Stokes are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Jim Pretin has sinced written about articles on various topics from Insurance, Medicine and Homeopathic Remedies. Jim Pretin is the owner of , a service that helps programmers make an HTML form. Jim Pretin's top article generates over 33100 views. to your Favourites.

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