Those large college numbers offer the bettor both risk and opportunity. For football bettors with the time, exploring the college football betting options may be the more rewarding choice. After all, in their rush to post wagering pointspreads, even the most experienced oddsmakers can’t get every line correct every week and occasionally misfire on a few games. That’s far more likely to happen at the collegiate level where, as the old adage goes, “bookmakers have to be right every time; bettors just once" gains added credence.
Getting to the Point(spread): You may live the rest of your life and not see Rice beat Texas in a college football game but no such stark mismatches exist in the NFL. In fact, even the Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts lost outright to Houston, Jacksonville and Tennessee last season, three teams that failed to make the playoffs. The largest pointspread differential in the NFL last year was 18, when the Colts welcomed the Titans to Indianapolis, Oct. 8. For the record, Indy prevailed, 14-13, but failed to cover.
The first 16 games of the 2007 NFL season opened with no team favored by more than seven points and a whopping nine contests where the line was a field goal or less.
Contrast that with the opening weekend of this year’s college season when no fewer than 16 games closed with pointspreads greater than 18, including two games above 30 and another pair of contests with lines of 40 points or more.
The larger numbers in the college football betting game also create greater volatility. For example, while top ranked USC opened as a 42 1/2-point favorite over Idaho, Sept. 1, gamblers pounded the Trojans, driving the line up to -49, a 6 1/2-point swing that you’ll never see happen in the NFL. USC failed to cover, winning, 38-10.
Also on Sept. 1, Michigan State was bet up from -17 to -23 against Alabama-Birmingham. The Spartans covered easily, 55-18.
This disparity in pointspreads creates a bit of a betting dilemma for bettors. The more conservative player may be better off concentrating on NFL betting, where no team is ever in a “can’t win" situation and the bettor isn’t apt to feel like a fool because a line has shifted significantly from the time it was posted to the time the player bet it.
The bettor with a more adventuresome streak may opt for college football betting where he could have, conceivably, laid 42 1/2 with USC and taken 49 with Idaho. He would have collected on both bets if the Trojans has won by 43-48 points. It didn’t work out this time but these highly desirable “middles," where the shop-wise bettor gets both ends of a moving line, are available more often in the college game than its NFL counterpart.
The Known Versus the Unknown: With teams required to list injuries and the probability of players participating in each week’s game, there are fewer surprises in NFL betting. College teams, however, are under no obligation to post injuries and/or suspensions, adding another level of uncertainty to the NCAA wagering experience.
I Second That Emotion: Although division contests can stir the juices, for the most part, professional football players operate on an even emotional keel. Even NFL coaches’ halftime speeches tend to be more about Xs and Os than motivation.
But the college game, where impressionable teenagers dominate, is more influenced by emotion, witness a motivated Appalachian State, which scored an astonishing upset of overconfident Michigan, Sept. 1.
That’s just another factor that makes college football betting more difficult and more risky, but potentially more rewarding than the NFL.
When it comes to football betting, a player has to find his comfort zone.
There are at least a half-dozen factors that separate college football betting from NFL betting. For starters, action on college football is much more likely to come from sophisticated bettors, known as "sharps" or "wiseguys", who often possess some insight or kernel of information that may provide them with an edge against the house. Experienced bet takers know not to treat heavy activity on an obscure game, such as East Carolina versus Wake Forest, as casually as they might deal with increased wagering interest on a marquee NFL game such as a Redskins-Cowboys confrontation. For that reason, bookmakers usually move college football betting lines quickly, often one full point at a time. In general, it takes more money to move an NFL betting line and, when it is moved, usually it is by only half a point.
Largely because of a lack of proficiency in the kicking game, key numbers such as 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14 are not nearly as sacrosanct in college football betting as they are in the NFL. College football games just do not fall on those numbers as often as they do in NFL contests.
We may never again see a three-touchdown favorite in the NFL but lines of -30, -40, or even -50 are not that uncommon in the college gridiron game. Oddsmakers and bookmakers also find college totals more difficult to gauge because some coaches try to impress those who have a vote in the polls by running up the score. Others, such as Penn State's Joe Paterno, feel that a third-string player's reward for practicing all week is to get to play in a blowout. It's just these types of unique uncertainties that compel bookmakers to shift college "over/under" numbers more quickly than they move NFL totals.
It's also the nature of college football that personnel change every year. This makes early season evaluation more difficult and leads bet takers to move lines and totals more quickly, especially in September and early October when the season is still young. There is personnel movement in the NFL too, of course, but mostly it involves players of established ability moving from team to team. In college football, you're always dealing with fresh faces.
By collective bargaining agreement, each week, the NFL publishes a comprehensive list of injured players and their status. Sure, there are mistakes and abuses and players who have been listed as "doubtful" have played while those regarded as "probable" have not but overall, the list is accurate. On the other hand, colleges are under no obligation to announce the status of injured or disciplined football players. This vagueness over availability sometimes can create opportunities in college football betting. Consequently, bookmakers are wary if too much wagering attention is paid to one team.
When it comes to parlay card numbers, you are much more apt to see a slight gap between those prices printed on cards and those posted on the board in the NFL than you are in college football. The key element is that bookmakers can more accurately predict the public inclination for an NFL game than they can for a college football game. It's not unusual then for traditionally popular team such as Dallas or a "hot" team such as Cincinnati, to be listed as a 7 1/2-point favorite on a parlay card but just a 6 1/2 or 7-point choice on the board. Through experience, bookmakers know that "public" teams such as the Cowboys, as well as "now" teams such as the Bengals, will be more aggressively played on parlay cards than they are straight up.
Clearly, understanding the differences between college football betting and NFL betting is essential to winning.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN COLLEGE AND PRO FOOTBALL
College Football: 'Wiseguys' frequently supply the action College football betting lines often are moved by a full point at a time Key numbers are not as important Personnel changes can make early season analysis difficult Information on injuries is not always accessible There's usually not a disparity between parlay card and board numbers
NFL: Money from public is prevalent Betting lines are usually moved by a half-point at a time Key numbers are VERY important Personnel changes are less volatile and easier to evaluate Information on injuries usually is accessible Parlay card numbers sometimes are intentionally different than prices on the board.
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Karol Lucan has sinced written about articles on various topics from Football, Recreation and Sports and Football. This article was written by Luken Karel for -The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering. Karol Lucan's top article generates over 3600 views. to your Favourites.
Luken Karel has sinced written about articles on various topics from Recreation and Sports, Football and Recreation and Sports. By Luken Karel for http://www.thegreek.com/ . The Greek Sportsbook & Casino is host to one of the top online sportsbooks offering , NFL betting and. Luken Karel's top article generates over 5400 views. to your Favourites.