Previously, we posted an article saying that John McCain's proposal would cover only 2 million Americans. These numbers were reported by the Commonwealth Fund, which is more liberal leaning.
A report by the Lewin Group is competing with the Commonwealth Fund's report. It is showing that 21 million Americans would be knocked off the uninsured list by 2019, says the Los Angeles Times and Associated Press.
How would McCain's plan hit this 21 million number? The report estimated that close to 24 million people would use the tax credit provide by the federal government under McCain's plan and buy their own individual health insurance plans in the private market. It was conceded that around 16 million would lose their group health insurance plan with their employers. But the report thought some new businesses would jump in and offer health insurance for the first time, which would offset at least a part of that 16 million workers who lost coverage.
The study has had skeptics. The largest argument against the Lewin Group's report is that people possibly being denied coverage in the private market because of pre existing health conditions as being a reality. The Lewin Group says it did account for this. Vice President of Lewin Group, John Sheils says, "The people who are sick are going to have a lot of trouble affording coverage, even with the credit."
Sheils said that roughly half of those who are uninsured today are Americans between the ages of 19 to 34. That's the group where the McCain plan will make up the biggest number from those who lost employer coverage, argued Sheils. It's an interesting report, but our first reaction is that their numbers might be inflated.