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Foregin Exchange is one of the most popular investing markets, and with a proper understanding of the markets and factors influencing it it is possible to enjoy great success in terms of returns. A case study which highlights all of the areas and considerations when it comes to Forex investments is not hard to come by- in fact, recent years have shown that even countries which may be overlooked by traditional investors may provide the greatest opportunities when it comes to investment.
A good example of the success that can be had in the foreign currency exchange is that set by the Canadian dollar. Most Americans pay little mind to Canada- it is the big country up North, most of the time it creates no problems and can be a compliant ally. Taking a nation and its economy for granted can be a huge mistake when it comes to foreign exchange, however.
Six years ago, the Canadian dollar was worth sixty cents when compared to the American greenback. This fact was intrinsically noted by many Americans, who began buying Canadian products cheaply; everything from cars to medication. This observation was not, for the most part, carried forward into the foreign exchange market. Canada, as a developed and established democracy, was not foreseen to provide any real change in the dollar amount, at least not when compared to potential through the roof opportunities such as China, India, or even countries with great development potential such as the Czech Republic.
Presently, the Canadian loonie sits at just over ninety cents compared to the American dollar- an increase of thirty-two cents in just six years. The growth continues to be surprising; the currency has gained a further four cents in the past week. Potential investors coming even late into the game were therefore assured of some profit, although not nearly equal to those they would have enjoyed if they had realized the potential a few years earlier.
The study of the loonie provides a good case for forex speculators. A country should not be eliminated from consideration when it comes to currency speculation just because it seems to be static developmentally in terms of market of commodities, government, and expansion. The Canadian economic boom has come about as a reulst of a combination of many factors.
The first and possibly the most important factor is the change in focus of the Canadian government. A new Liberal government was elected in 1994, and one of the key ideas on the election platform was the elimination of the government spending deficit. They achieved this goal against all expectations, and the end of deficit spending provided the basic groundwork when it came to an improved economy.
Even with sound fiscal policies, a country's economy can only be as strong as its export and import abilities. Canada possesses one of the most valuable resources in the world today- oil reserves in the province of Alberta are equal to those of the United States, and thus rising prices have contributed to an economic booster that is currently driving a lot of the Canadian GDP.
When it comes to forex investing, there are many factors which can determine profit margins. Make sure to take these all into account before talking to your broker or bank.
During recent months, the Canadian dollar traded a tight range against Sterling between 2.2500 and 2.3000. This follows a sharp uptrend in GBP/CAD from a low around 1.9737 (02/03/06) to a recent high at 2.3567 (23/01/07) caused by expectations of higher interest rates in the UK, coupled with interest rate stagnation in Canada. At the same time, the US$ has weakened, forcing the exchange over US$2 per GBP and down to US$1.11 per CAD giving UK customers a boost while detracting the value for our southern neighbours.
In the UK, the Bank of England left interest rates on hold in April, however, expectations of higher rates in the months ahead continue to offer support to Sterling. With a buoyant housing market and strong levels of consumer spending, the market is expecting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will be forced to raise rates at least once more in an attempt to dampen down inflationary pressures. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI – the most recognised measure of inflation in the UK) is currently running at 2.8% y/y against a target rate of 2.0% and raising interest rates is the most obvious way of combating rising prices.
Meanwhile, Canada has been faced by interest rate stagnation following the rise to 4.25% in May 2006. Risks to the Canadian economy remain finely balanced with the threat of an economic slowdown filtering across the boarder from the US. As its biggest trading partner, any signs of a struggling US economy may impact the Canadian economy although this has not really been the case so far in 2007. In similar fashion to the UK, the Canadian housing market remains robust with The Canadian Real Estate Association reporting strong sales of existing homes in February and record high average house prices. The Canadian Dollar is also likely to remain well supported against the US$ by rising oil prices given that oil exports represent a large percentage of the Canadian economy.
Looking back to March 2006 GBP/CAD traded a low of 1.9737 (02/03/06) indicating a difference of CAD 32,300 in less than twelve months when looking to transfer £100,000. Therefore, anyone looking to transfer funds between Canada and the UK should pay considerable attention to the GBP/CAD exchange rate as it can have such a dramatic impact upon their future wealth. Should you be looking to move large sums it definitely pays to monitor the markets and be aware of international factors that can affect which direction currencies will go. The debt and ongoing military interventions of the US will undoubtedly have some effect on the US$ against the CAD, though the weak US$ will most likely help boost the exports from their struggling economy. The recent trend of the Dow Jones to smash new records and factory orders starting to increase does point towards the start of a turn around for the US which, if fuelled by the exports will be another reason for the US to try to maintain a weaker dollar.
Advising migrants and businesses of currency movements and protecting them from the risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates is the speciality of currency brokers. Whilst nobody can guarantee future currency movements due to the sheer size and number of participants in the market, both personal and business accounts can increase their bottom lines in dramatic fashion by taking expert advice.