Lets



be honest, horse racing is an inexact sport (science?), horses are

unpredictable animals which don't always perform according to

expectations. Jockeys too have their good and bad days (wrong side of

the bed syndrome) and if doping and race fixing allegations are to be

believed these too add to the uncertainty of the outcome of the race.

No

trainer would deliberately race a horse which he didn't think was

'fit'. But being fit and the horse being at its peak are two different

things. Just because a horse won or performed well in it's previous

race doesn't mean it's going to do well in it's next race. Why? There

are a multitude of reasons, for example, it may just have gone off it's

peak or it could be that it's at its peak but so are the others and

they're just simply quicker on the day.



The truth is that each horse is 'capable' of achieving a certain level

of performance and will generally in each race, perform within a given

'band' or performance range. How wide that performance range is

determines how good the horse is and how often it will win.

Horses are often

'handicapped' or given 'extra weight' to carry during a race to try

even out their performance and bring it into line with the other horses

in the field. However, think about it. The horse weighs a few hundred

kilos and carries a jockey weighing around 7 or 8 stone. What

difference is a few extra pounds going to make? Ok, if the extra few

pounds are the equivalent of 'the straw that broke the camels back'. If

you took an Olympic runner and strapped an extra couple of pounds to

his back, would it really effect his performance dramatically?

Probably, not. What would have a greater effect would be if he had a

bit of a cold, a minor injury etc . Of course it is also true that

horses with the highest handicap generally win, despite the extra

weight, mainly because they are better racehorses.

What we're trying to say is that you

can't just take a few facts and figures about a horses previous

performance and base the outcome of future race on these. There are

other factors which have a greater effect but that no one takes into

account. There is no such thing as a perfect system, for all the above

reasons and many more. Anyone who claims they have one is telling

'fibs'.

As with casinos, bookmakers

have the odds stacked in their favour. What we need to be successful at

horse racing is an 'edge', to shift the odds from the bookmakers favour

to the 'punter'.

This is exactly what punters need, 'an edge'. How?, by running the race, BEFORE the race is run…..

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