With autumn very likely to represent another opportunity for the bird flu virus to find new hosts in new territories, as a consequence of the movement of large flocks of migratory birds across great distances, some experts warn the flu pandemic that is so feared and predicted for some while now could be just around the corner. But how severe could such an outcome be? Estimates range from thousands to millions of victims. In any case, it might not be a disease to end civilization as we know it, but it is quite likely to cause important social disturbances. So how does this disease influence current world affairs and how will it take its toll on our lives in an unfortunate future?



Current effects of the much talked about virus are obvious in areas where the virus has been detected in birds or even humans. Asian countries in particular have been facing the disease for a few years now. Most have at least some prevention measures implemented and there are programs to monitor and test birds populations for the virus. Some have chosen to vaccinate poultry with anti viral drugs and where there is an outbreak, rapid culling of all the birds in the area is standard procedure. In countries relying heavily on poultry consumption, the culling of millions of birds has forced the population to choose other products as a substitute.

Poultry farm owners and all other types of companies involved in the process of raising, processing and distributing poultry products have suffered great losses and are likely to go to great lengths to merely keep their businesses alive. The financial issue is manifested at a national level as well. Countries depending on their poultry exports are forced to see their products rejected from the international market, as many others ban such imports fearing a possible spread of the disease. Tourism is also affected. Although not as noticeably as the food industry, periodic changes into the travelers' preferences can be noticed. Previously favoured destinations in Asia now struggle to attract tourists, as many people are rightfully reluctant to visit regions where the bird flu virus has ravishing effects. Some governments have even warned their people and recommended those destinations to be avoided.

However, the greatest disruptions can be expected in the future, in the event of a local or world wide epidemic. With predictions of millions of people succumbing to the disease, it is easy to foresee all areas being affected. For businesses in particular, it would be interesting to consider the effects such a widespread health conditions could have. Some new reports estimate that up to half of the staff of any business could fall ill or be absent from work. Employers are being warned to take precautions and be prepared for such an event. Although terrorism is a more common concern for anyone today, a bird flu pandemic could cause even greater disruption. It is expected that employees will miss work either to care for others, or prevent an infection, or because they will have been infected themselves. It will therefore be difficult to find cover for the absent staff and the costs of any service is likely to rise considerably.

Furthermore, public transport could be disrupted itself and prevent staff getting to work. It is advisable to research the possibility of some of them working from home. This could prevent a further spread of the virus, while also offering a solution for those only suffering minor symptoms. Supply chains will also be impaired and stocks of different provisions should be taken into consideration. Travel will become very difficult and might not be recommended, as to avoid further spreads. The simplest way any employer can do to prepare for this is a plain information bulletin for their staff to keep them informed on the situation, or even considering all these factors and preparing suitable equipment for them to continue their work from home. It would be wrong to wait and see to what extent the virus will strike, as preparations at that time could prove too little too late.