With well over a century of steady usage of crude oil, it is fairly easy to predict some of the recurring trends in the rise and fall of crude oil future prices. What we have to do is simply employ the old rule of thumb that tells us there is nothing new under the sum and then apply that to projections on crude oil production and consumption. Here are some examples of changes that we can anticipate to occur right on schedule.



As the nation emerges from cold weather and reaches toward the summer months, more of us will be thinking about vacations to far away places, and maybe even some short trips to the beach if we live within a reasonable distance to the coastline. Past experience teaches us that we can expect an increase in crude oil future prices around the time that people begin to get serious about some holiday traveling. Everything from gasoline to airfare will increase around this time. At times, the increase is attributed to slow production due to some production facilities being understaffed, while at other times there is speculation about crude oil being hoarded by the this nation or that. Regardless of the reason, there is always at least once factor that leads to an increase in prices as the weather begins to warm.

Just as predictably, any occurrence of natural disasters during the summer months will bring about increase in petroleum prices. Tornadoes and hurricanes that impact the production ability of offshore rigs and onshore processing plants will surely result in prices going up, even if people are not really in a good position to handle the increase. Keep your bicycle tires pumped up just in case.

As we begin to go into the autumn of the year, we will see crude oil future prices begin to level off and perhaps even dip a bit. It is usually not a god idea to get too excited with any significant change we see, as it will most likely be short lived. From the decrease, we can expect a small rebound to a slightly higher price, which will most likely be fairly constant for the winter months, barring any type of major problem somewhere in the world.

Predicting crude oil future prices based on past experience is a fairly reliable way for the consumer to plan for any upcoming changes that may have to be made in order to accommodate the shift in pricing. Make sure you watch the current status of the prices, and let history be your guide in planning your upcoming budget.