Unless you've been living in a cave somewhere, you've probably heard many gloomy predictions about the state of realty and home values in the past year or so. According to the media and industry experts, the housing bubble is bursting, home value prices are dropping and the real estate market in general sucks.
Rest assured, this is NOT true. Perhaps when looked at on a national scale, the market could be better – but it's not as bad as many make it out to seem. Besides, knowing the national median home value (in 2006 it was $221,900) isn't going to help you when you move. Real estate is an investment, so you want to invest where your home value is bound to appreciate. So how do you know where to move to? By examining past home value and sales trends as well as the population, economy, job opportunities and attractions a specific area has to offer.
Texas (capital city: Austin) is the largest mainland state with a population of over 23.5 million in 2006. With so much space and such a huge population, it's a good thing Texas's economy has really grown lately, especially in the past few months. Their main agricultural products are cattle, cotton, dairy, nursery stock, poultry, sorghum, corn and wheat and its industrial services include chemical production, natural gas and petroleum, food processing, electric equipment, machinery, mining and tourism. In the past few months several industries have grown, including: trade, transportation and utilities; financial, professional and business services; education and health services and even the governmental sectors. Since new job opportunities equals more new residents, and new residents equals more demand for housing, it isn't much of a surprise that on average, Texas home value prices have continued to rise.
The various things to do in Texas also keeps attracting new residents as well, which again keeps home value averages steady and rising. Texas has something for everyone: nightlife from it's major cities (and there are many of them: Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, El Paso, San Antonio and Houston), historical and cultural monuments (plenty of battles took place in Texas – does the Alamo ring a bell?), outdoor activities (camping, birding, water sports, etc), beautiful beaches on the Gulf coast, and of course ranches and cowboys and horses (oh my!). All year round you can find festivals, fiestas and fishing tournaments throughout Texas, and amusement parks as well as state parks pepper the state. These attractions are continuously attracting more and more people to the estate, keeping the market stable.
Of course, the fact that Texas has had more job growth and the lowest unemployment rate in its history the past few months doesn't hurt home value prices either. With an unemployment rate of only 4.1% in May, more jobs than ever are available in Texas. On the flip side, according to American Community Survey, the state's median household income actually dropped nearly $1000 to $42,139 in 2005 (when inflation is calculated). Since Texas has some of the richest and poorest areas in the nation, that is not too surprising. The median assessed home value for the past month was about $131,824, while the median sales price was about $116,900.
Major cities in the state seem to be holding steady real estate markets. Affordable Austin has a median home value sales price of about $174,000 with homes spending less days on the market than in past months (an average of 63 now). Houston has cooled off somewhat overall, according to agents in the area, with slight drops in sales and home value in the past couple months. The average home value of a single family home is at about $214,540, which is still an increase over last year. San Antonio's inventory is at a historical high and the average list price is lowering somewhat as sellers get used to a slower than normal market. The average home value in May was about $184,721. The Dallas and Forth Worth area has also been growing, and home value averages reflect that at about $350,343 in the Dallas area.
All in all, Texas has areas that are doing very well and other areas that are slowing down somewhat and even dropping slightly in home value averages. However, with so much job growth and opportunity, it is likely that Texas' market will perk up again and home value prices will continue to appreciate.
Estimate Home Value Free
The real estate market is crashing, your home value is plummeting and soon you won't be able to give your house away. Is that similar to what you've been hearing around the nation about the state of the real estate market? Allow me to offer reassurance: the market's not that bad. Not in the majority of areas anyway. Besides, how will knowing the median home value nationwide (it's $221,900)or the rate of home sales across the U.S. really help you? Honestly, it won't, not really.
When you buy a new home, you're making an investment, so it's important to buy in an area your home value can continue to appreciate. To do that, you've got to look into specific geographic areas. Take a look at past home value and home sale trends as well as an area's economy, employment and job growth and the attraction level it has to new residents, and you can more reliably predict where your home value will go over the next few years.
The islands of Hawaii (capital city of Honolulu) have never had a problem attracting visitors and new residents. Though its islands are relatively small, Hawaii boasted a population of 1,211,537 in 2006. Its chief agricultural products include sugarcane, pineapple, nursery stock, livestock and macadamia nuts. Not surprisingly, Hawaii's biggest industrial sector is tourism, and others include food processing, apparel, fabricated metal products and stone, clay and glass products. With such varied trades for employment and such a huge tourism sector, it's not really surprising that most of the state's islands still have rising home value appreciation in a slower market.
As far as tourism goes, Hawaii is one of the bigger vacation attractions of the United States. With surf, sand, sun and adventure on every island, you can have a great time on even the smallest of them. Hawaii has 11 different climate zones, meaning the environment runs from lush forest to dry deserts, from black sand beaches to snow covered mountaintops. The Big Island (Hawaii) is full of ancient Hawaiian temples, European missionaries and is a great place to learn about the history and culture of the state. Maui has a combination of great nightlife, shopping and dining and natural adventures including hiking, water sports, wildlife watching and terrain exploring.
The island of Kauai is home of the “Grand Canyon of the Pacific" and the only navigable river in Hawaii. The more rural island of Molokai is considered the most “Hawaiian" island and is ideal for the true outdoorsman. The island of Oahu, one of the most popular in the state, had an amazing downtown area, great surfing and holds the Pearl Harbor Memorial. If you're looking for a more tropical and laid back vacation, Hawaii is the spot to be. With so many attractions and different places to visit, it's no wonder visitors make the decision to become permanent residents, assuring the stability of home value and the real estate market.
Hawaii has a high median household income compared to the rest of the nation at about $58,112 in 2005 (which actually was a slight decline from 2004) and a very low unemployment rate of 2.5% in May 2007. Professional and business services and leisure and hospitality has seen job growth, while government and trade, transport and utility jobs have declined. With an average home value of about $550,000, Hawaii is one of the more expensive places to buy a home in the United States. Their strong labor market, rising incomes and quickly rising home value equals a stable market for most. However, while their median income is high, home value prices are much higher, making homes less affordable then in other “poorer" states.
For now, most agents are noticing homes are spending a bit less time on the market in the 2nd quarter of 2007. One of the most expensive islands, Oahu, has a median home value of $665,000 which is down a couple thousand from the median in May of 2006. According to the Realtor Association of Maui statistics, the average home value sale price on the island of Maui at the end of April 2007 was over one million dollars! The smaller islands tend to be more affordable at this point, though the Big Island Hawaii saw a home value median of $430,000 at the end of 2006. Two of the smallest islands, Molokai and Lanai have the lowest median home value at $415,000 for Molokai (which is down from $505,000 in 2006) and 472,000 for Lanai, which is up from $410,000 in 2006.
With unemployment as low as it is, and home value prices high, it is unlikely for Hawaii's home value averages to continue skyrocketing. As of now, most areas of the state are leveling out and still appreciating slowly, while others, such as Molokai, have actually seen a decrease in home value appreciation. Over time, this will likely level off as well, and Hawaii will settle back into a stable, calm market with gradual rises in home value rates.
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