The Count



Start searching for a buying day 2 days after a swing high or, conversely, a shorting day 2 days after a swing low. Ideally, the market will move in complete 5-day cycles. (In a strong trend, the market will move 4 days in the primary direction and only 1 in reaction. Thus, one must seek entry 1 day earlier.)

"Check Mark" on the Test

The potential entry is sought opposite, or contrary to, the previous day's close. If looking to buy (sell), one first wants the market to "test" the previous day's low (high), preferably early in the day, and then form a trading pattern that looks like a "check mark" (see examples).

This pattern sets up and establishes a "double stop point" or strong support. If entering a market with only a "single stop point" or support formed by today's low only, exit on the same day--the trade is clearly against the trend.

Close vs. Open

The close should indicate the following day's opening. When a market opens opposite what is expected or indicated by the trend, one may first look to "fade" it--but must take profits quickly. Then look to reverse! Support (Resistance) Is today's support (resistance) higher or lower than yesterday's?

Swing Measurements

Where is the market relative to the last swing high or low? Look for swings (up or down) of equal length, and for retracements of equal percentage. No matter in what time frame, always look for supply at tops and support at bottoms. Penetrations should be accompanied by volume and activity. Expect trends, either up or down, to last for either 2 or 4 weeks.

The following conditions are fairly reliable indicators for the start of one of these trends (I personally skip the first buy or sell swing when one occurs because the move ensuing could be quite strong):

Narrowest range in the last 7 days

3 consecutive days with small range

The point of a wedge

A breakaway gap

A rising ADX (14-period) above 32

Practice

Because a certain amount of confidence in any technique is required to trade it consistently, paper trading can cultivate the faith necessary to recognize and trade pattern repetition. Although the temptation to try too many different styles and patterns always exists, one must strive ultimately to trade in just one consistent manner--or at least to integrate techniques into your own unique philosophy.

System Characteristics

Certain points about trading short-term swings deserve note. Understanding the nature of short-term systems can help you recognize the psychological aspect of trading.

When consistently following a short-term system, you should expect a very high win/loss ratio. Though the objectives with this style of swing trading appear conservative, you will almost always incur "positive slippage". In all systems, winners are skewed. Even though making steady profits, 3-4 really big trades may actually make the month. It is vitally important to always "lock in" your trades. Don't give back profits when short-term trading. You may be astonished at just how big some winners may be from catching the swings "just right!"

Article was written by Mouser57