The metropolitan city of Mumbai is seeing a high time real estate boom. It reflects the growing real estate sector of India. There is a considerable increase in demand and supply and an appreciation in real estate values across micro markets. After Delhi and Gurgaon, Mumbai is the next favourite hub and people are moving into the city in large numbers day in and day out. Investors and HNI's have been investing in various pre-leased properties having insurance, banking, IT/ITES, residential and retail sector occupants.
When compared to any other real estate market in India, Mumbai property sector is considered to be very transparent. In the last couple of years there has been an increase in the cash component in transactions. The large demand and the provision of state-of-art flats in Mumbai's most posh locality or even in the outskirts of the city, has led to the land prices in Mumbai go up considerably. The investment market has been thriving with returns increasing manifold over the past few years.
The classic example being, an investor who invested in Peninsula Corporate Park, Lower Parel two years ago at Rs 5,000 per sq feet, has enjoyed a capital appreciated of 50 per cent and a rental yield of 11-12 per cent per annum, translating in to a return of over 70 per cent in just a span of two years. Currently, the real estate investors are mainly HNI's and the good news for Mumbaiites will be the institutional money which will flow into this sector in the coming years. The coming up of malls, huge complex and more commercial establishments, there is an upsurge in construction activities in most parts of the city leading to investment opportunities in commercial and retail real estate sectors. Locations such as Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) and Lower Parel have seen increasing demand in Grade-A office buildings.
The occupancy levels in locations such as Andheri East and NarimaPoint havealso increased considerably in the last few months. The occupancy rate is 90 to 95 per cent which is quite high. A Mumbai Real Estate Developer, Ranjan S, said, "There is a new trend that has set in Mumbai which is quite recent. Due to high traffic congestions, high cost of living many are slowly leaving Mumbai and giving away their homes for rent. This is the same case with mall and other commercial establishments. Someone invests in the building not to start any establishment but the sole purpose of buying it is to lend it to a tenant who will pay an high amount of rent. A single-bed room flat in Mumbai's posh area would fetch a rent of around Rs 12,000 a month. Pre-leased properties with high profile tenants are the most favoured real estate investment options."
Just to give an example of how Mumbai remains to be one of the preferred cities and its impact on the real estate arena, look at these statistics. In 2003, a land in Colaba would cost Rs 56, 850 per sq mt while now in 2006, the price has shot up to Rs 62,500. Worli, another high traffic location in Mumbai, was priced Rs 43, 850 per sq mt in 2003, and in 2006 the rate is gone up by Rs 48,250 per sq mt. The posh of the lot, Cuffe Parada/Madam Cama Road, originally costed Rs 72,000 per sq mt in 2003 and now it rates Rs 75, 600.
The recent National Textile Mills (NTC) transactions in Central Mumbai have greatly altered the face of the land of Mumbai transactions. Meanwhile, the 17th Cotover Bombay High court ruling scuppered the NTC mill land sales. Here, 5 mills were sold to private developers, totaling over Rs 202 million), as it held the sale of surplus mill land contrary to the Supreme Courts earlier order.
But all said and done, if the current interest rates remain constant, the yields from commercial properties are expected to decrease to around 9 per cent from the current 10.5 per cent but if the interest rates go up then the yields will be around 10 to 12 per cent.
Mumbai Land prices are all set to increase by a good 5 to 10 per cent according to the annual ready report issued by the inspector general for stamp duty and registration. He said that the prices in south and central Mumbai are expected to go up while those for office space will remain at its current level. Secondary business districts like Worli and Lower Parel are set to move Northward.
Undoubtedly, even the residential prices have gone up considerably. The demand for 3BRK apartments, which falls under the high end category, has increased owing to factors like high deplorable income, double income facilities and overall greater affordability. The demand for residential property will be high provided the interest rate on housing finance is reasonably low and the economy is stable. In Mumbai, on a average, capital values have shown a rise of 15 to 20 per cent over the last one year.
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While there are few markets in the country that have managed to survive the current housing market without any battle scars there are some markets that have experienced more serious issues than others. Two of the worst markets in the United States at the moment are Cleveland and Detroit; however, they are definitely not alone when it comes to markets that are falling with no end in sight any time soon.
By and large, the riskiest markets at the moment are those that are experiencing the highest rates of foreclosures. Other factors that are contributing to problem areas include high rates of job loss and slow job growth. Markets in which the number of homes for sale is rapidly rising are also experiencing significant problems. Rapidly rising property values just a few short years ago is also proving to be a stumbling block for many markets.
During the housing boom these markets commonly experienced property value increases of two-fold and even three-fold in many cases. Once the boom ended; however, these markets began to fall and as of yet, they have not hit the bottom. These markets are also at greater risk for problems due to the large presence of adjustable rate mortgages.
During the housing boom, as prices were escalating quickly, buyers frequently took advantage of adjustable rate mortgages to obtain even lower interest rates to make their housing payments more affordable. This was quite common in areas where first-time home buyers were struggling to afford the rapidly rising prices of homes.
The subprime mortgage market is also more highly concentrated in these areas of the country. Lower interest rates at the time prompted many people to rush out and buy homes. Unfortunately, the credit profile of many of these buyers was less than sterling. Mortgage loans made in these markets during this time frequently involved subprime, adjustable rate mortgages. As the market began to fall, interest rates began to increase. Today, those same homeowners are finding they can no longer afford their mortgage payments. The result? Foreclosures have risen sharply in market areas where the boom once allowed housing values to double and even triple practically overnight.
Economic conditions in many areas have further fueled the crisis. As the number of layoffs increase, the number of foreclosures and homes for sale seem to increase as well.
At the moment, the ten worst housing markets in the country are Sacramento, New Orleans, Detroit, Riverside-San Bernardino, Las Vegas, Tampa, Miami, Cleveland, Phoenix and Jacksonville, Florida.
Sacramento, considered to be among the top ten of the worst housing markets, has experienced a drop in homes prices that is well above the national average. Like many other housing markets in similar situations, Sacramento fell victim to a fast paced market and subsequent plummeting pricing. Today the median home price for homes in Sacramento remains far above other markets in the country, despite the worsening situation. Given the large number of houses on the market; however, this is far from good news.
In spite of the situation in Sacramento; however, it is definitely not the worst case scenario at the moment. That honor goes to Detroit, where market prices have experienced a drop of more than 7%. The key factor in Detroit is the massive amounts of layoffs stemming from the auto industry. Matters are not much better in Cleveland where median prices have also dropped by several percent and inventory continues to rise.
While these markets are not showing any signs they will rebound in the near future; there are some markets; however, which are actually posting increases. Seattle is one such market. Median home prices in Seattle have actually risen almost 9% in the last year. Other cities on the rise include Raleigh and Charlotte in North Carolina as well as San Jose, California. San Francisco is not far behind, garnering an increase of more than 7% in the last year.
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