Approximately 75% of fund managers do not beat the S&P 500 year in and year out. How can a basket of 500 hundred stocks beat the majority of actively managed mutual funds? The people who manage these funds are, for the most part, brilliant people. They are highly educated and have access to the most advanced information and decision support systems in the world. So why is it that they do not outperform the S&P 500?
A Quick Test:
Here's a very crude test of management performance: Let's compare the domestic-equity mutual fund performance supplied by Morningstar against the S&P 500 index for one, three, five and ten-year periods, looking back from April 30, 1995. The S&P 500 index is a fair comparison for large, domestic companies.
Our results:
--Of the 1,097 funds Morningstar covered for the one-year period, 110 beat the S&P 500, while 987 fell short. Results ranged from 46.84% to -32.26%, while the S&P 500 attained a 17.44% return.
--During the three-year period, the S&P 500 returned 10.54%, while results in the funds varied from 29.28% to -15.02% compounded annually. Of the total 609 funds, only 266 beat the S&P 500.
--Shifting to the five-year period, of 470 funds, 204 beat the S&P 500. Results ranged from 27.35% to -8.51%, while the index racked up 12.62%.
--At ten years, only 56 of 262 funds managed to beat the index, and results varied from 24.77% to -4.06% compounded annually against 14.78% for the S&P 500.
The fact that most funds do not beat the overall stock market should not be surprising. Since the majority of money invested in the stock market comes from mutual funds, it would be mathematically impossible for the majority all of these funds to out perform the market.
The implied promise held out to investors in actively managed mutual funds is that in exchange for higher fees (relative to index funds), the actively managed fund will deliver superior market performance. There are a host of barriers to fulfilling this implied promise.
Some of the problems are:
--The larger a mutual fund gets, the more difficult it becomes to deliver exceptional performance.
--Although fund size runs counter to performance, fund managers have a strong motivation to let the fund grow as big as possible because the bigger the fund gets, the more money the fund managers make.
--Most skillful mutual fund managers are hired away by hedge funds, where their financial rewards are greater and there are few restrictions on investment techniques.
--By law mutual funds are supposed to be conservative, which in theory limits their potential losses. This conservative stance generally limits their ability to use arbitrage, options, or shorting stocks.
Can You Do Better?
Because of the general inflexibility and restrictions of most mutual funds, your investment capital is not properly hedged against market fluctuations. In most cases, if you compared the beta of the equity exposure held in actively managed mutual funds to an equal equity exposure to the S&P 500 index, your reward/risk ratio would be less rewarding than purchasing an identical equity exposure to the S&P 500 index. So, the answer is, you can do better and beat the S & P 500 by using an effective stock market timing system.
Historical S&p 500 Prices
What are Index Futures?
Future contracts originate from commodity trading. A future contract is an obligation to buy/sell a certain quantity of commodity at a specific date for a specific price determined at the outset of the contract. Future contracts are frequently used for hedging risks and also for speculation.
For example, with the recent hike in oil prices, an airline company which uses a lot of fuel might want to hedge it's exposure to oil prices through the purchase of oil futures. If the price of oil is $60 now and is expected to go up to $70 within 3 months, the airline would hedge its exposure by purchasing the 3 month future contracts so long as the agreed price is less than $70.
Oil prices now $60
Expected oil price in 3 mth's time (by airline) $70
Price of 3 mth oil contract (by oil producer) $68
Actual price 3 mths later $65
Let's assume the airline can find an oil producer willing to sell oil 3 month later for $68, the company would enter a futures agreement with this oil producer for delivery of a certain quantity of oil in 3 month's time. If the price of oil falls to $65, the airline still has to purchase at the agreed price of $68. But what propelled the airline to enter the futures contract in the first place is its expectations of future oil prices going up to $70 in 3 months and buying at a price below $70 (3 months later) seemed reasonable to the company.
Index futures are cash settled, there is no physical delivery of commodity as in the case of wheat, corn, etc. Although index futures can also be held for the long term, the time span we are concentrating on is a day. We are using the index futures as a vehicle for speculation and not for hedging as in the case of the airline company.
What is the Emini S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100?
NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 index futures is listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and trades on the Globex electronic system. CME acts as the counter party for each trade, hence if you short futures, CME will be taking the long position and vice versa.
NASDAQ 100 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the NASDAQ 100 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $20 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.5 points which is equivalent to $10.
S&P 500 Emini contracts is actually one fifth the size of their larger counterparts, the S&P 500 index futures. Each point of the index will represent $50 and the minimum fluctuation ( tick size ) is 0.25 points which is equivalent to $12.50.
Globex opens from 16:30(EST) on weekdays and 18:00(EST) on Sundays and public holidays. The closing time is 16:15(EST) on all days. However, there will be a scheduled maintenance of Globex from 17:30 till 18:00 (Monday through Thursday, nightly). I know the timings can be quite complicated, however as day traders, we are mostly concerned with trading when the market is opened as we have to capitalize on the higher liquidity available. I do not recommend entering trades after market hours, due to low volume which leads to slippage. The time span you have to concentrate on is really the market opening hours from 9:30 till 16:15 (EST).
More information regarding the contract specification of the Emini can be found on CME's website.
symbols for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Emini index futures. Both the NQ and ES emini contracts have expiry months in March, June, September and December which are denoted by the letters "H", "M", "U", "Z" respectively. Hence NQ05Z will represent the NASDAQ 100 emini contract with expiry month in December 2005. Similarly, ES06H will be the symbol for an S&P 500 emini contract with expiry month in March 2006.
Both John M. Mcclure & Michael Taylor are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
John M. Mcclure has sinced written about articles on various topics from Property Guide, Best Mutual Funds and Stock. John M. McClure is CEO and President of EquiTrend Inc., a stock market timing system that averages 42% profits per year. Mr. McClure is also a Registered Investment Advisor and President of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.. John M. Mcclure's top article generates over 2900 views. to your Favourites.
Michael Taylor has sinced written about articles on various topics from Day Trading, Stock and Day Trading. Michael Taylor is a professional trader and webmaster of He regular updates his trading blog at. Michael Taylor's top article generates over 8100 views. to your Favourites.
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