Oil, oil, oil. It seems you can't turn left or right without having the subject come up. The reason, of course, is oil is a fossil fuel that forms the energy basis for most of the things in our lives. On a more practical basis, one can hardly be surprised that many of the political and military conflicts in the world revolve around countries with oil reserves. While somewhat cynical, there is little dispute that Kenya is not exactly a hot spot at the moment.

When discussing oil, much of the focus is on supply issues. Simply put, who has it? How much do they have? How long will all of it last? Will it be made available to the world freely, to wit, who controls it? All are valid and important questions. One question that doesn't get much attention is what happens when we start to run out of it?

More than a few scientists have tried to estimate when world wide peak oil production will occur. Much of the discussion focuses on the Hubbert Curve which has accurately predicted past peak oil production for specific areas. The problem in predicting when world wide peak oil production will occur is people apply different numbers to the formula that determines the curve. Some feel it will be 2007 while others predict a future date. While the debate of when peak oil production will occur is interesting, a second important question is what happens after it?

There are many studies and scenarios regarding our world after we start seeing a decrease in oil production. None of them are pretty. At first glance, you might think we would see a gradual decline in prices and supply that parallel the decrease in production. The studies do not support this. Instead, issues like panic, conflict and price speculation paint a very ugly situation.

First and foremost, we will see a sudden, unpredicted impact from declining oil production. The change will literally come upon us in a matter of days and weeks, not months and years. Making matters worse, our current research into alternative energy sources offers little relief. At current levels, it will take between 10 and 20 YEARS to replace the oil supply with other energy sources. Obviously, such a gap will lead to a disaster. The studies predict failing economies, massive political unrest and a potential breakdown of basic civil society. In short, it is going to be bad.

Whether we want to admit it or not, the world is changing around us. One of the most important aspects of that change is oil production is going to hit its peak and then decline. When it declines, we better be ready to deal with it.