Gambling is sometimes defined as entertainment for people who don't understand mathematics. Everyone has heard stories about a basketball bettor who has a great streak...but streaks tend to be relatively shortlived. Ultimately, bettors generally end up in the red.
But, winning basketball bets is possible if you're smart and have a little good fortune.
Sports bettors...those who successfully wager on basketball or any other sport...tend to adhere to a pretty similar set of guidelines. Here are some good gidelines for basketball bettors.
1. Decide on a budget at the beginning of the season. Determine how much you want to bet on individual games, and the maximum number of games on which you will wager. Your budget should be low...an amount of money you can afford to lose without hardship. If at any point you are tempted to increase the maximums you have set, stop gambling immediately.
2. If your goal is winning, treat every wager as an individual investment decision. Research, analyze, and weigh the options.
3. Do not bet every game you think you have handicapped. Bet only those about which you have good reason to feel highly confident. Your percentage of winners is likely to be far higher.
4. Be wary of attaching too much importance to trend data, especially if some of that data is historical, as opposed to current. How well a team has shot free throws during the last five years may not tell you much about what its percentage from the line will be this year, for instance. TV and radio analysts will sometimes give you a lot of "gee whiz" information or make statements they could not defend against the questions of a high school debater. You have to decide which information really means something in determining the outcome of each game on which you consider wagering.
5. Continue to question and analyze the method by which you select games and winners. Do you tend to select games which interest you instead of games in which choosing a winner might be easier? Too you place too much value on a team's ability to shoot three pointers? Do you tend to favor teams from tough conferences without deeper analysis? What kinds of games have you been more likely to win?
6. Be sure to appropriately factor in the homecourt advantage. In no other sport is playing at home as large an advantage as it is in basketball (especially college basketball).
The reality is, you may very well be able to win bets against your friends if you follow the guidelines above. And, even if you lose a little every season, you can have a lot of fun. Just don't think you can win betting against the pros. Small wagers can make watching a great game even more fun, large wagers are for fools.
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