The total supply of apartments in the downtown area was 10,182 units in the 2nd quarter of 2007, which was an increase of 2.6% year-on-year but a slight fall of 0.6% quarter-on-quarter. The slight drop on a quarterly basis was because five apartments were removed from our stock as they were no longer used as apartments. Two new grade A apartment projects were completed in this quarter, both adding 90 units in Sukhumvit area. This area remains the most popular area, where about 7,194 units or 70% of the downtown apartment supply is located. The Riverside/Rama III area had the lowest supply, with about 5% or 508 units.
The number of expatriates in Bangkok was 70,757 in the 2nd quarter of 2007, an increase 0.7% from the previous quarter. The Japanese still made up the largest share, with about 21.6% of the total number of expatriates in Bangkok. This was followed by Indian, Chinese, British and American expatriates, with 11%, 9%, 8% and 7%, respectively.
The average occupancy rate for the apartment market increased from 87% in the previous quarter to 89.2% in this quarter, an increase of 2.3% quarter-on-quarter. Occupancy rates improved, due to supply increasing only slightly while take-up continued to increased at a faster rate in the 2nd quarter of 2007. The average occupancy rate of grade A apartments was 95.7%, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, while that of grade B apartments decreased by about 1.4% year-on-year, this indicates that grade A apartments are still in demand.
Asking rents and achieved rents for both grade A and B apartment in all areas increased on a quarterly basis except grade A apartments in the Sukhumvit area. The achieved rents per square meter for grade A apartments in Silom/Sathorn, Central Lumpini, Sukhumvit and Riverside/Rama III were THB 388, 414 and 386 and 337, respectively.
Newly opened grade A apartments will continue to enjoy high occupancy rates and rents could also increase for these new units.
Supply
There were two newly completed apartments in this quarter: G. M. Height on Sukhumvit 22, comprising 56 units ranging from 3 to 4 bedroom units and Bangkok View Tower on Sukhumvit 31, comprising 34 units ranging from 3+1 bedroom units to penthouse units.
13 new apartments with at least 1,108 units will be added to the market within the next two years. Of these, 662 units or 65% of the future supply are planned to be completed this year.
In the condominium sector, 2 projects with 362 units were completed in this quarter. However, these will not compete in the rental market until the 3rd quarter of 2007 or later.
The competition in the rental market is anticipated to intensify, due to the continued growth in the number of condominium units that will soon finish being decorated.
Demand
The occupancy rate increased from 86.9% in the 1st quarter of 2007 to 89.2% in the 2nd quarter of 2007. There were 9,086 occupied units from the total of 10,182 units, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year and 2.1% quarter-on-quarter. Occupancy rates improved, due to supply increasing only slightly while take-up continued to increase at a faster rate in this quarter. The average occupancy of grade A apartment was 95.7% in the 2nd quarter of 2007, indicating an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, while that of grade B apartments was at 88%, a fall 1.4% year-on-year. The Sukhumvit area achieved the highest rate, with about 96.4%.
There is demand for brand new units that meet expatriate requirements, in both the apartment and condominium sector. Sukhumvit is still the most popular area due to its convenience and range of facilities.
Overall, condominium units being let out by individual landlords are able to achieve higher rates per square meter as they are relatively small compared to apartment units. The achieved rent for grade A condominium units remained stable, in the range of THB 500-600 per square meter.
Prospects
Although the total supply will increase significantly this year, the expatriate apartment market is expected to be healthy especially if the economy improves and foreign investment increases. Some 662 new apartment units are expected to be added in the downtown area within this year, raising the total supply to 10,844 units. There will also be competition from new condominiums which will gain some share in the expatriate residential market. In the next two years 19,600 condominium units will be completed and up to 50% of these new condominiums will be available for rent.
In The Second Quarter
Overall the housing market experienced a slowdown with the exception of the condominium segment. New supply of both single-detached and townhouses declined, while demand was weak throughout the first half of the year. Sales of upscale condominiums, however, improved slightly, while prices continued to rise in most market segments. The changing lifestyle of city dwellers continued to drive the mid-end condominium market along the mass transit routes. This upturn in the midtown condominium market has raised demand for land along mass transit lines, while pushing up land prices in secondary locations such as Ratchada, Ladprao, Tha Pra, Bangkapi and Outer Sukhumvit.
The market for commercial properties such as retail outlets and offices was subdued. Political and economic factors continued to negatively affect the commercial property market. Office and retail rentals remained largely unchanged as business and consumer sentiment remained low throughout the first half of 2007. The hotel industry in Bangkok improved slightly, while hotels in resort destinations continued to outperform their peers in the capital. The continued increase in the number of tourist arrivals in the first half suggested that foreign tourists? confidence still remained at high levels.
Housing - New residential supply in Bangkok dropped 10% q-o-q in Q1 2007 due to the large decline in the number of developer-built housing units. This number increased slightly by 0.3% y-o-y. Future residential supply is expected to drop since the numbers of land allocation and building construction permits dropped significantly recently. The demand for the housing market remains weak with sales rates dropping in almost all areas of Bangkok. Townhouses performed better than SDH (single detached house) as buyers seemed to prefer lower-priced products that are located closer to the city area.
Lower interest rates will continue to be supportive, even though the market is not expected to respond significantly. The delayed construction of new mass transit lines has caused new launches to be delayed and home buyers to put their buying decision on hold. The political uncertainty continues to affect consumer confidence, and lower economic growth is affecting purchasing power.
Condominiums - Sales of upscale condominiums improved slightly in the second quarter, while prices continued to rise in most market segments. Consumer sentiment seemed to improve as we saw more buying activities in both luxury and middle markets.
The condominium market will remain active throughout the rest of the year, especially those projects located in the prime area and those near the mass transit routes. As sales for luxury and upper-middle market started to increase in Q2 2007, the situation for this sub-market further improved in the second half of the year. The ?skytrain generation? and the changing lifestyle of city dwellers will continue to drive mid-end condominium market in the secondary locations. Prices of these condominium projects are likely to increase further as land prices continue to rise.
Serviced Apartments - The supply of serviced apartments increased to over 9,000 units in downtown Bangkok in Q2 2007. Weak demand continued as a result of the ongoing political uncertainty in the second quarter. The average occupancy rate stood at 79.1%. The average achieved rent of grade A serviced apartments increased by 4.3% y-o-y.
The continuing increase in supply has led to a more competitive market, which in turn has resulted in an increase in the number of projects targeting not only expatriates but also tourists. The total supply looks set to reach 10,800 units at year's end. This will further increase competition and could limit increases in occupancy and rental rates unless demand can catch up.
Office - Demand improved slightly in the second quarter, raising the total take-up in the first half of 2007 to 79,000 sq.m. In Q2 2007, the total office supply in Bangkok increased to 7.47 million sq.m. Despite an improvement in overall demand for office space this quarter, net take-up of office space in the first half of 2007 still dropped by 37% y-o-y. The average occupancy rate of offices slightly increased. Despite a slight decrease of grade A rentals in the CBD area on a quarterly basis, overall office rentals in Bangkok continued to rise by about 3.5% y-o-y.
A rebound in take-up will be crucial to this year's performance. The office market looks set to register a lower level of whole-year net new take-up than last year. Average rents will remain mostly flat should demand fail to improve in the second half of the year. The average occupancy rates could drop once the new supply comes on stream at the end of the year. The situation could reverse if the demand comes back.
Market Outlook
The property market in Bangkok is likely to perform moderately towards the end of 2007 as Thailand's economy looks set for a slower growth this year. The housing market is expected to continue slowing, while the condominium market will perform well with prices in the luxury category and mid-end in some locations increasing toward the end of the year. More residential developers are building to target the mid and lower market as the purchasing power of home buyers remains weak. Deeper discounts are anticipated as developers are now trying to reduce their backlog in housing developments. More community malls will be opened to serve growing residential communities along existing transit routes. Offices will face a challenge as about 140,000 sq.m. of new office space is due in the second half of the year.
Ngamjai Jearrajarat has sinced written about articles on various topics from Investments, Real Estate. CB Richard Ellis (Thailand) - - established an office in Bangkok in 1988 and in Phuket in 2004. The firm has grown to be a leading real estate services p. Ngamjai Jearrajarat's top article generates over 720 views. to your Favourites.
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