World economies are facing a triple threat. Oil reserves will be close to depletion by the year 2050. Damages from climate changes caused by escalating greenhouse gas emissions will become substantial. Rising transportation and food costs will slow economic growth rates. The results will lead to worldwide economic stagnation without hope for escape or reversal.
Future generations will have to pay dearly for the failure of previous national governments to eliminate carbon dioxide emissions and to change world energy supplies. Our dependence on fossil fuels must be terminated completely within the next three to four decades or the world will self-destruct.
Let's us look at the facts that lead to these frightening conclusions.
Statements about petroleum reserves have been dubious in the past. In 2007, lowest figures are in the range of 1 to 1.3 trillion barrels. A figure as high as 2.3 trillion barrels has been proposed but will not find many supporters, not even in the oil industry.
At the 2006 rate of oil consumption of 31 billion barrels per year, these reserves could last 32 to 74 years. Such figures are often quoted but are much too high because annual oil consumption is continually rising. The growth rate is approximately 2% per year. Projecting steady growth to the year 2050, the actual consumption is going to be 60% higher. This increases the average annual consumption rate between 2006 and 2050 to a very realistic 50 billion barrels per year. Time to depletion is reduced to a time span of 20 years to 46 years. Most likely, neither figure is correct. However, it is reasonable to assume that a figure between 20 years and 46 years will be most likely.
Combusting 1 to 2.3 trillion barrels of oil will add a huge amount of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. The amount is 0.42 to 1 trillion tons of carbon dioxide. This huge mass will increase the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere by 55 to 125 ppm. Only a small percentage of this additional mass will be absorbed in the oceans. Most of it will lead to a substantial increase in the atmosphere's carbon dioxide content.
During the same time, an even larger amount of carbon dioxide will be added to the atmosphere from the accelerating burning of coal and natural gas.
There is a direct connection between carbon dioxide accumulation and global temperature increase. During the last 30 years, this correlation amounted to approximately 2 degree C per 100 ppm carbon dioxide. If we accept this correlation as valid, we are faced with some very ugly numbers. During the next 46 years, we will increase the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration by at least 200 ppm. In turn, this increase will result in a rise of global temperatures by 4 degree C. This means that by the year 2050, the world will have warmed by 5 degree C! This figure is more realistic than recent IPCC forecasts.
The robust growth of world economies and the exceptionally fast increase in energy consumption in China and India will result in much higher energy consumption and in a much faster growth of greenhouse gases than originally predicted. Two other accelerating factors are the failure of the Kyoto Protocol to perceptibly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the decision of the USA to delay any countermeasures.
In view of actual, past developments and by accepting a realistic future outlook, we must draw several, inescapable conclusions. The increase of global temperatures on Earth will become faster, transportation of commodities and goods will get extremely costly, and the effects of global warming on climate change will continue to become more numerous and more destructive. This confluence of future developments will lead inescapably to a major threat to all world economies.
Once world economies begin to contract and collapse, national economies cannot marshal any longer the necessary resources that could have saved the world. Installation of effective countermeasures will require a minimum time of thirty years. Once economies contract, there will be no resources and no time left to implement solutions.
The world will have lost the ability to install any of the promising, renewable technologies, which are able to produce electricity and liquid transportation fuels without the emission of any destructive greenhouse gases. The world as we know it will cease to exist.
List Of World Economies
Modern economies are unthinkable without plentiful and affordable energy supplies. The double threat of global warming and climate change makes it mandatory to look for new, non-polluting energy sources. When searching for future energy supplies we must be very much aware of the critical role that energy plays in modern economies. It is imperative that we keep in mind the immense investments and the priceless inventories that were made by previous generations when building existing energy supply infrastructures.
Electricity has become the predominant energy form used by industry, commerce, and consumers alike. Transportation is a close second with industry, commerce, and individuals virtually incapable to maintain economic activity without immediate access to affordable liquid fuels for cars, trucks, ships, trains, and airplanes.
Continuing use of fossil fuels will result in unacceptable levels of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere. We have learned that this accumulation is responsible for global warming and that it is the root cause of climate change and its many incarnations. The world does not have a choice any longer. We must completely halt carbon dioxide emissions before the year 2050 or the world will have to deal with escalating and uncontrollable climate changes.
The costs of dealing with climate change can potentially overpower world economies, can inflict extreme suffering on most of the world's peoples, and can eventually lead to a worldwide economic collapse. Such a collapse will be the precursor of the disappearance of our civilizations.
Changing over from polluting fossil fuels to clean, new energy sources will be expensive. Trying to replace well performing industry segments would not only be foolish; it could be suicidal. We cannot dare to slow the world's economies. Economies must be highly productive when we attempt to halt all fossil fuel combustion and begin instead to use only clean, renewable energy sources. The changeover will create much additional economic activity, which can result in an overall positive effect on world economies during the next two generations.
In our efforts to change to new energy sources we must try to modify rather than replace existing energy consuming, energy converting, and energy distributing systems. We are well advised to continue the use of existing electricity generating plants, electricity transmission grids, petroleum refining plants, gasoline and diesel fuel distribution systems, inventories of cars, trucks, ships, trains, railways, airplanes, and airports. We must continue to use our manufacturing plants to produce these valuable and life supporting devices and the service systems with their trained personnel to keep them running.
Replacing even a part of this infrastructure would last generations and would cost trillions upon trillions of dollars. Replacement costs will be out of reach for even the most wealthy, most industrialized, and most technologically advanced countries. We must find solutions that keep much of the existing energy infrastructures in place. We must develop new technologies, which will not overburden our economies and which will not risk economic slowdowns, recessions, or total economical collapse.
The puzzle we have to solve is very complex. There will be more than one solution. To put our task into sharp focus let us state the problem this way: How can we best preserve as much of our infrastructure as possible, stop burning fossil fuels, and replace fossil fuels by only consuming renewable and alternative energies? Most importantly, how can we stimulate and maintain economic growth concurrently?
One such practical and actionable solution is based on the complete cessation of all fossil fuel burning. There is absolutely no way that we can prevent carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere by sequestering carbon dioxide for more than a few decades. Therefore, we will have to convert all our energy sources entirely to the exclusive use of solar energy, wind energy, marine energy, geothermal energy, and nuclear energy.
Fortunately, there is enough solar energy to last us forever. Nuclear fission energy will last for centuries. Geothermal energy resources are huge but will be expensive to exploit in most locations.
Continuing shortsightedness and greed are still keeping us on the march into certain disaster. This is tragic and unacceptable. We must force our governments to accept change. New technologies are available that can give us the means and the tools to not only avoid disaster but make this world a better place to live in. All we have to do is to act with foresight. Most importantly, we must subordinate the interests of the few to the wellbeing of the many. What must we do?
We must continue to use the existing inventory of energy consuming machinery and appliances. We must preserve our marvelous transportation systems that deliver unerringly the goods, foods, and all necessities for us to live and for everybody to pursue business and pleasure. We must keep the electric transmission nets and grids that cover the world. We must keep the distribution systems that deliver motor fuels to neighborhoods and to the farthest corners of the world. We must keep the power plants, our manufacturing plants, and the refineries that convert crude energy into motor fuels. We must save our buildings and our homes.
We must concentrate our intellectual efforts and our financial resources on the development of a selected, few technologies. It appears entirely feasible to develop and demonstrate these few key technologies in less than two decades. Above all, we must act very, very soon or we will leave to future generations a very hot and barren world.
Klaus H Hemsath has sinced written about articles on various topics from Cars, Politics and Facts about Barack Obama. Dr. Hemsath recently published the book CLIMATE CHANGE - GOLD RUSH OR DISASTER? For 50 years he has worked as scientist, process engineer, Director of R&D, Corporate Vice President of R&D, Company President, Chief Executive Officer, and Inventor. He hold. Klaus H Hemsath's top article generates over 5400 views. to your Favourites.
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