When investing in bonds, stocks, or mutual funds, investors have the opportunity to increase their rate of return by timing the market - investing when stock markets go up and selling before they decline. A good investor can either time the market prudently, select a good investment, or employ a combination of both to increase his or her rate of return. However, any attempt to increase your rate of return by timing the market entails higher risk. Investors who actively try to time the market should realize that sometimes the unexpected does happen and they could lose money or forgo an excellent return.
Timing the market is difficult. To be successful, you have to make two investment decisions correctly: one to sell and one to buy. If you get either wrong in the short term you are out of luck. In addition, investors should realize that:
1. Stock markets go up more often than they go down.
2. When stock markets decline they tend to decline very quickly. That is, short-term losses are more severe than short-term gains.
3. The bulk of the gains posted by the stock market are posted in a very short time. In short, if you miss one or two good days in the stock market you will forgo the bulk of the gains.
Not many investors are good timers. "The Portable Pension Fiduciary," by John H. Ilkiw, noted the results of a comprehensive study of institutional investors, such as mutual fund and pension fund managers. The study concluded that the median money manager added some value by selecting investments that outperform the market. The best money managers added more than 2 percent per year due to stock selection. However the median money manager lost value by timing the market. Thus, investors should realize that marketing timing can add value but that there are better strategies that increase returns over the long term, incur less risk, and have a higher probability of success.
One of the reasons why it is so difficult to time correctly is due to the difficulty of removing emotion from your investment decision. Investors who invest on emotion tend to overreact: they invest when prices are high and sell when prices are low. Professional money managers, who can remove emotion from their investment decisions, can add value by timing their investments correctly, but the bulk of their excess rates of return are still generated through security selection and other investment strategies. Investors who want to increase their rate of return through market timing should consider a good Tactical Asset Allocation fund. These funds aim to add value by changing the investment mix between cash, bonds, and stocks following strict protocols and models, rather than emotion-based market timing.
Market Timing Mutual Funds
Ideally, investors try to buy a stock when the price has reached a support level (a level at which the price is as low as it will go) and sell the stock when it hits a resistance level (a level at which the price is as high as it will go). This is easier said than done. Most investors end up missing out on a continual rise by waiting for a stock to plummet first, or sell way to early by underestimating how high the price will go. In this article, we will focus on the two most popular strategies that you can use to invest without having to worry about market timing.
Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.
An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.
The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.
Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.
Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start. If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.
Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.
Both Tony Reed & Jim Pretin are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
Tony Reed has sinced written about articles on various topics from Stock, Investments and Hedge Funds of Funds. About the author: Tony Reed is the author of " ", visit his website. Tony Reed's top article generates over 201000 views. to your Favourites.
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