Guide to Finance

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Mutual Fund Market Timing

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Ideally, investors try to buy a stock when the price has reached a support level (a level at which the price is as low as it will go) and sell the stock when it hits a resistance level (a level at which the price is as high as it will go). This is easier said than done. Most investors end up missing out on a continual rise by waiting for a stock to plummet first, or sell way to early by underestimating how high the price will go. In this article, we will focus on the two most popular strategies that you can use to invest without having to worry about market timing.



Dollar cost averaging (DCA) is an investing technique intended to reduce exposure to risk associated with making a single large purchase. According to this technique, shares of stock are purchased in a specific amount on a specified periodic basis (often monthly), regardless of current performance. The theory is that this will lead to greater returns overall, since smaller numbers of shares will be bought when the cost is high, while larger number of shares will be bought while the cost is low.

An example of DCA would be as follows: If I want to buy 1,200 shares of IBM stock using DCA, then I might decide to purchase 400 shares of IBM per month over the course of the next three months. Hypothetically, during month one, the price of IBM may be $105 per share, and then it might drop to $95 per share during month two, and then rise to $100 during month three. If I bought all 1,200 shares during month one, I would have cost me $105 per share. But, by spreading the purchase over a three month period, I managed to buy IBM at an average price of $100 per share.

The primary drawback of using DCA is that you may not be maximizing your overall return. If there is an indication that a certain stock is currently undervalued and might shoot up in price, you would actually make less money using DCA than if you had bought all the shares in the beginning before the price skyrocketed. So, it is not always a winning strategy to spread your purchases over a period of time.

Value averaging, also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique of adding to an investment portfolio to provide greater return than similar methods such as dollar cost averaging and random investment. With the method, investors contribute to their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance increases by a set amount, regardless of market fluctuations. As a result, in periods of market declines, the investor contributes more money, while in periods of market climbs, the investor contributes less.

Here is an example of DVA: I want to invest in Yahoo using DVA. For the sake of argument, we will say that Yahoo is currently $10 per share. I determine that the value of the amount I am going to invest over the course of 1 year will rise, on average, $1,000 each quarter as I make additional investments. If I use DVA, I invest $1,000 to start. If, at the end of the first quarter, the share price has risen to $15 per share, that means that the value of my investment is now $1,500, which means I will only have to invest $500 at the start of the second quarter in order to bring the total amount of my investment for the first and second quarter to $2,000. So, I am investing less as the stock price increases.

Dollar value averaging usually works better than cost averaging because value averaging results in less money being invested as the stock price goes up, whereas with cost averaging you continue to invest the same number of dollars regardless of the share price. But, neither of these strategies are necessarily full-proof. Make sure you know something about the company you are going to invest in before you go forward.
Mutual Fund Market Timing
Confirmation

If you simply try and buy low sell high by selling into resistance and buying into support your making a fatal error - why?

Because you are predicting which is the same as hoping or guessing and you don't get rewarded for relying on hope in any venture, let alone forex trading.

Many novice forex traders think that to win they have to predict - but as we don't know the future, this is not going to help you make money, you simply don't have the odds on your side.

If you learn forex trading correctly, you will understand that you need to act on the reality of price, confirmed by momentum oscillators which are leading indicators and can confirm trend changes.

Let's look at the correct way to use momentum oscillators in your forex trading strategy, so you can enjoy currency trading success.

Momentum & Support and Resistance

For example, when a price gets near to support you don't just simply buy - you wait for confirmation that price velocity is turning away from the level, by using momentum oscillators.

You're not hoping or guessing - you're acting on the reality of price change.

We don't have time to go through momentum oscillators in detail here (there covered in our other articles) but two of the best are - RSI and the stochastic indicator.

Look them up - their easy to understand and use and all you need to do is watch for simple visual setups.

Momentum oscillators can also help you take advantage of some of the best moves which don't involve looking for support and resistance to hold but help you spot if it will break.

Momentum and Breakout Trading

If you want to catch the biggest moves with your forex trading system you need to trade breakouts.

The fact is the best market trends don't start from market lows - they take off from new market highs.

Traders who sit back hoping for a lower entry point - end up just waiting as the trend accelerates and DOESN'T pullback.

Buying a new market high is difficult will it continue or do you get the worst possible entry point?

Momentum oscillators can help you decide.

If you have a breakout on your forex chart supported by rising momentum, chances are it will continue and you should go with the break. If momentum on the other hand is weak, it could be a failed breakout and should be avoided.

It's all about getting the odds on your side and that's what momentum oscillators help you do.

Momentum and the Odds

Momentum oscillators can help you time market entry better and also help you stay out of trades that don't have good odds. If you use momentum correctly, you will increase your odds of currency trading success.

So if you are trading forex keep in mind:

Don't rely on hoping guessing or predicting - rely on trading the reality of changes in price momentum and enjoy greater forex trading success.

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About Author
Both Jim Pretin & Kelly Price are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Jim Pretin has sinced written about articles on various topics from Insurance, Medicine and Homeopathic Remedies. Jim Pretin is the owner of , a service that helps programmers make an HTML form. Jim Pretin's top article generates over 33100 views. to your Favourites.

Kelly Price has sinced written about articles on various topics from RSS, Learn Trading and Forex Trading Forex. PROFESSIONAL FOREX TRADING COURSE AND FREE ESSENTIAL INFOFor free 2 x trading Pdf's with 90 of pages of essential info and an exclusive. Kelly Price's top article generates over 165000 views. to your Favourites.
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