The Hirsh report published in March, 2005 discusses the peaking of world oil production and its effects on the US economy. The report was prepared by Robert Hirsh for the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory. Its purpose was identification of the critical issues related to world peak oil and suggestions as to how to reduce its effects.

The report does not specifically state when peak oil will happen but cites different opinions of anywhere from 2007 to 2027. The dramatic impacts of a scarcity of oil and the resulting price increases in the decade after peak oil onset could have a trillion dollar effect on the US economy. Peak oil is a worldwide energy problem that needs to be addressed massively a decade prior to onset to develop alternative energy sources.

The major problem to solve is transportation related, the liquid fuels used for cars, airplanes, trains and ships. Increasing fuel efficiency in cars and trucks in significant enough numbers to reduce demand for gasoline will take 10 to 15 years. The average age of U.S. automobiles is nine years. Other energy sources, like solar, wind, photovoltaics, produce electricity but will take decades to reach widespread use in transportation.

The report states that the key to reducing the risk of peaking world oil is constructing large numbers of substitute fuel production facilities in combination with significant increases in fuel efficiency.

The report discusses the commercial options available to increase world oil supply and to produce substitute liquid fuels. These options include increasing production from existing reservoirs through improved extraction techniques by companies like Western Pipeline Corporation, extracting oil from oil sands, coal liquefaction and clean substitute fuels from remotely located natural gas. To achieve world wide contributions from these options will take 10 to 20 years and a lot of effort.

The report states that mitigation will require an intense effort over decades due to the time needed to replace liquid fuel consuming vehicles and the time needed to build substitute fuel production facilities. Production of substitute liquid fuels in large amounts must be provided.

The report concludes that with adequate, timely mitigation, the economic costs to the world can be minimized. Without this mitigation, shortages will cause significant economic hardship to the world. Government action will be necessary to assist in planning, development and regulation to assure the nation’s energy supply remains stable.

Many people consider the description and analysis of the impacts, mitigation and risk management recommendations related to peaking oil production presented in the Hirsh report deserves close review by government and industry leaders in the U.S..