Understanding commodity ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) is actually easier than it sounds. The first commodity ETFs were introduced in 2004 and skyrocketed in the first year. Commodities are things found in nature, like corn, gold, silver, natural gas, and even cattle. Corporations amass large amounts of commodities and sell them off in smaller parts (funds) via commodities indexes (like NASDAQ indexes).
There are three major umbrellas that commodity ETFs fall under. These include metals, energy and agriculture commodities. An investor would benefit from a portfolio that includes commodities from all three major groups.
Metal commodities include precious metals like copper, gold and silver. These metals are used to make jewelry, for housing construction, and in industries and production including aerospace and pharmaceuticals. Metal prices can effect retailers who sell jewelry, the cost of real estate, the price of medicines, even services like plumbing. The stability of metals was questioned in the early 1900's when the United States decided to use paper certificates rather than gold to back US currency. Many people shied away from investing in gold at that point due to the popular notion that gold would become essentially worthless. Gold, however, continued to rise right along with inflation and is fast becoming one of the most traded commodity ETFs.
Energy commodities are made up of crude oils, coal and natural gas for the most part. The price of gasoline has an effect on just about every part of our lives. When the price of a barrel of oil goes up, the price of gas follows suit. When the transportation industry has to pay more for gas, they have to charge more to transport goods. When they charge more for goods, the producers have to charge us more to buy them. In May, 2008, it cost one trucker nearly $1,000 to fill up his tank. As a consumer this is never good news. As an investor, however, knowledge that prices are going up means that it is time to buy, not only in energy commodity ETFs, but in anything that is affected by the cost of energy.
Agriculture, or farming, commodities include anything that is grown or raised by farmers or ranchers. The price of food is determined by the price of agriculture, as is the clothing industry, construction, household goods, furniture, and just about anything that uses cotton, rubber or wood. Corn commodity ETFs are definitely ones to watch. Not only because corn is used to feed us, but also because it is being tested in laboratories to make a new kind of fuel.
A beginning investor should not overlook commodity ETFs as they can be fairly inexpensive to add to your portfolio. Even experienced, long-term investors should take the time to learn about this somewhat new market.
You can learn more about commodity ETFs by searching the internet, subscribing to major publications that focus on business and the stock market, or by watching television news shows that discuss financial issues. If you still don't understand them, give your broker a call and ask him to explain commodity ETFs - in plain English.
Plain English For Lawyers
You can do analysis in two different ways. You can utilize fundamental analysis and technical analysis.
Technical analysis studies prices. Here, you want to analyze price movement history so that you can try to predict future prices.
Fundamental analysis studies a nation's overall economic health. This can otherwise be termed as "big picture" analysis. You focus on the strength of a nation's economy and how it will affect the supply and demand of its currency. This, in turn, will affect the currency's price.
As an example, let's say that the US economy is in a major positive trend. The economy is strong, so the dollar is expected to rise, and currency traders will invest great amounts in the dollar. This can be a self-fulfilling prophecy, so that the dollar increases in value.
As a concept, that's pretty simple, but it's not so easy to judge the health of the nation's economy. In fact, you need to consider many things. Two traders may look at the same figures and come up with entirely different interpretations of the data.
Those who focus on fundamental analysis look at a variety of economic indicators to determine how strong a particular economy is. Some of the indicators they may analyze include the unemployment rate, the interest rate, gross domestic product, and the Consumer Price Index.
Various government agencies regularly release reports on these factors, as do non-government agencies. Find the latest schedule of upcoming releases and make note of them. Keep an eye on them for a few months to see what effect if any they have on currency prices.
One thing you should keep in mind is that it's often not the numbers in a report that carry the greatest impact, but the relation of the numbers to what was forecasted.
Put another way, if interest rates rise, this may not have a significant impact if forecasters were indeed expecting it. However, if they weren't expecting it, and they expected interest rates to remain steady or fall, an unexpected increase may have a significant impact on currency prices.
Fundamental analysis does have a disadvantage in that it can be a little too general, a little too "big picture." It's wonderful to predict overall economic growth and price changes that result, but you can't usually get enough detail from it to target specific exit and entry points. This is why technical analysis is just as important, so that it can help to further refine an estimate based on a "big picture" prediction with fundamental analysis.
In conclusion, successful forex traders usually develop a trading system that's based on a mix of fundamental and technical "triggers" to instigate trading orders. Some, however, have been successful with using as few indicating sources as possible to determine trades - such as price-driven variables on a certain currency pair.
Both Ryan Moxie & Ian Armstrong are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
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