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Your Online Guide » Guide to the Stock Market » Understanding the Stock Market

[I483]Invest In Oil Stocks
by Michelle Bery, Mic

One popular choice of investment is that of oil stocks; the reasons for its attractiveness are incredibly diverse. And deciding whether you want to involve yourself in this particular industry is a very personal choice.

Oil stocks are generally thought of as a safe and consistent investment. The need for oil will never dissipate; the theory is that oil stocks will continue to hold their value because of the demand for the product.

Not every oil stock is the same. And so each stock must be researched thoroughly to avoid any surprises. You must first determine whether a particular oil stock is overvalued. Some oil stocks may look to yield a dramatic return on investment but the earning ratio must be considered; such a large profit margin – while appealing – may indicate volatility.

Another thing to consider when deciding whether to invest in oil stocks is to choose between what is referred to as a Trust Unit and a Common Share. Trust units are a conservative form of oil stocks that does not attach tax to the stock. The growth that the oil stocks can achieve - in the form of a trust unit - is limited but the risk is also minimal.

The riskier oil stocks are what are known as common shares, whereby earnings by the company are reinvested into the stock. This type of oil stock carries a greater risk but the possibility for greater reward.

Finally, you need to make the decision between natural gas or oil stocks. Natural gas – not as consistently in demand as oil – tends to be more unpredictable. These are things to keep mind when making your decision.

Whatever you choose be sure to conduct thorough research before making any purchases. There are plenty of online resources available for those looking to begin trading on the stock market.

You may also want to consult a stock market professional who can expertly guide you through the process of buying and selling oil stocks. It's okay to ask questions. Stop at nothing to learn all you can about oil stocks and the stock market in general.

Deciding whether or not to venture into the stock market can be an enormous decision. Oil stocks can be a relatively predictable way to begin your journey.


I noticed that the Amex Oil Stock Index had
recently broken out to fresh highs after moving
above a 1? year congestion zone.

The first thing I wondered was - what does this
meant for the price of Oil? Will it re-challenge
its July ?06 highs of $79? And what would that
mean for the stock market?

It's worth noting the relationship between Oil
and the Oil stocks is not as clean as Gold and
Gold stocks.

Gold Stocks lead and the metal follows soon after
in the same direction. Not so with Oil.
Oil Stocks can diverge from the price of Oil for
long periods of time, as can be seen below when
Oil Stocks moved higher between 1992 and 1998
whilst the price of Crude hovered around $20/
barrel.The reason, Oil Stocks behave like regular
stocks in that they benefit from an increase in
growth expectations, quite independent from
movements in the price of Oil.

Chart 1 - Oil Stock Index looking overbought;
Crude Oil (top)

Even though it recently broke to fresh highs, the
Amex oil stock Index is currently over-extended:

? The index is nearly 40 above it 200 day moving average and the
internal indicators (not shown) are not
overbought.

So does a fresh break to new highs in Oil Stocks
mean Crude is about to bust out?

Maybe!

Due to the extreme divergences that can exist
between Oil Stocks and Oil, we cannot necessarily
assume Crude will move higher just because the
Oil Stocks have.

But here's an indication that it might:

Chart 2 - Gasoline vs. Crude Oil (behind)

Gasoline Prices have been on a tear lately.
The main reason is bottle necks at refineries.
But take into account that we are fast
approaching driving season, hurricane season, and
never-ending geopolitical strife in the Middle
East; one can be forgiven for thinking the price
of Gasoline will be heading much higher.

A move above $2.50 would clinch it from a
technical point of view. Projecting a target of $
3.70. That may very well mean gas at the pump of $
5 in some areas. Ouch!!

Based on the close correlation between Gasoline
and Crude, a breakout in gasoline would surely be
followed by a breakout in Crude!

And that brings us to the stock market. What does
a breakout in Crude prices mean for the stock
market?

Chart 3 - Oil Stocks : Crude Oil ratio ; S&P (
below)

During periods when Oil Stocks outperform Crude
Oil, the stock market is usually bullish (the
above chart is rising). When Oil outperforms the
Oil stocks, the stock market does poorly as can
be seen between 2000 and 2002. In other words,
rising Oil is not necessarily bad for the stock
market as long as Oil stocks are rising.

Current Interpretation: The AMEX Oil stock Index
in Chart 1 looks very over extended technically
whilst Crude Oil in Chart 2 looks like it may be
setting up for a run to its previous highs. Under
such conditions the Oil Stock: Crude Oil ratio
would decline which as mentioned above is not
good for the stock market.

$5 Gas may very well be the consumers? nemesis.
The point where the consumer retrenches and
reigns in spending. At least that's what the
market is telling us!

Implications for Gold: A rising Oil price and a
falling Stock Market would be a heady cocktail
for investors. Inflation would be undeniable and
the prospect of money printing to stem a falling
market would be huge. Gold has a promising future
indeed!


More commentary and an oil stock pick follows for
subscribers...


keywords: oil stocks, oil stock

Article Source : How Is The Stock Market Doing

About Author
Both Michelle Bery & Greg Silberman are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Michelle Bery has sinced written about articles on various topics from Asthma, Home Security and Abdominal. For easy to understand, in depth information about stocks visit our ezGuide 2 .. Michelle Bery's top article generates over 135000 views. to your Favourites.

Greg Silberman has sinced written about articles on various topics from Stock, Nutrition and Investments. To learn more about successful investing in oil stocks and a free trial to my newsletter, please visit me at: or. Greg Silberman's top article generates over 5400 views. to your Favourites.
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