Guide to the Stock Market

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Invest In Oil Stocks

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One popular choice of investment is that of oil stocks; the reasons for its attractiveness are incredibly diverse. And deciding whether you want to involve yourself in this particular industry is a very personal choice.



Oil stocks are generally thought of as a safe and consistent investment. The need for oil will never dissipate; the theory is that oil stocks will continue to hold their value because of the demand for the product.

Not every oil stock is the same. And so each stock must be researched thoroughly to avoid any surprises. You must first determine whether a particular oil stock is overvalued. Some oil stocks may look to yield a dramatic return on investment but the earning ratio must be considered; such a large profit margin – while appealing – may indicate volatility.

Another thing to consider when deciding whether to invest in oil stocks is to choose between what is referred to as a Trust Unit and a Common Share. Trust units are a conservative form of oil stocks that does not attach tax to the stock. The growth that the oil stocks can achieve - in the form of a trust unit - is limited but the risk is also minimal.

The riskier oil stocks are what are known as common shares, whereby earnings by the company are reinvested into the stock. This type of oil stock carries a greater risk but the possibility for greater reward.

Finally, you need to make the decision between natural gas or oil stocks. Natural gas – not as consistently in demand as oil – tends to be more unpredictable. These are things to keep mind when making your decision.

Whatever you choose be sure to conduct thorough research before making any purchases. There are plenty of online resources available for those looking to begin trading on the stock market.

You may also want to consult a stock market professional who can expertly guide you through the process of buying and selling oil stocks. It's okay to ask questions. Stop at nothing to learn all you can about oil stocks and the stock market in general.

Deciding whether or not to venture into the stock market can be an enormous decision. Oil stocks can be a relatively predictable way to begin your journey.
Invest In Oil Stocks
I noticed that the Amex Oil Stock Index had

recently broken out to fresh highs after moving

above a 1? year congestion zone.

The first thing I wondered was - what does this

meant for the price of Oil? Will it re-challenge

its July ?06 highs of $79? And what would that

mean for the stock market?

It's worth noting the relationship between Oil

and the Oil stocks is not as clean as Gold and

Gold stocks.

Gold Stocks lead and the metal follows soon after

in the same direction. Not so with Oil.

Oil Stocks can diverge from the price of Oil for

long periods of time, as can be seen below when

Oil Stocks moved higher between 1992 and 1998

whilst the price of Crude hovered around $20/

barrel.The reason, Oil Stocks behave like regular

stocks in that they benefit from an increase in

growth expectations, quite independent from

movements in the price of Oil.

Chart 1 - Oil Stock Index looking overbought;

Crude Oil (top)

Even though it recently broke to fresh highs, the

Amex oil stock Index is currently over-extended:

? The index is nearly 40 above it 200 day moving average and the

internal indicators (not shown) are not

overbought.

So does a fresh break to new highs in Oil Stocks

mean Crude is about to bust out?

Maybe!

Due to the extreme divergences that can exist

between Oil Stocks and Oil, we cannot necessarily

assume Crude will move higher just because the

Oil Stocks have.

But here's an indication that it might:

Chart 2 - Gasoline vs. Crude Oil (behind)

Gasoline Prices have been on a tear lately.

The main reason is bottle necks at refineries.

But take into account that we are fast

approaching driving season, hurricane season, and

never-ending geopolitical strife in the Middle

East; one can be forgiven for thinking the price

of Gasoline will be heading much higher.

A move above $2.50 would clinch it from a

technical point of view. Projecting a target of $

3.70. That may very well mean gas at the pump of $

5 in some areas. Ouch!!

Based on the close correlation between Gasoline

and Crude, a breakout in gasoline would surely be

followed by a breakout in Crude!

And that brings us to the stock market. What does

a breakout in Crude prices mean for the stock

market?

Chart 3 - Oil Stocks : Crude Oil ratio ; S&P (

below)

During periods when Oil Stocks outperform Crude

Oil, the stock market is usually bullish (the

above chart is rising). When Oil outperforms the

Oil stocks, the stock market does poorly as can

be seen between 2000 and 2002. In other words,

rising Oil is not necessarily bad for the stock

market as long as Oil stocks are rising.

Current Interpretation: The AMEX Oil stock Index

in Chart 1 looks very over extended technically

whilst Crude Oil in Chart 2 looks like it may be

setting up for a run to its previous highs. Under

such conditions the Oil Stock: Crude Oil ratio

would decline which as mentioned above is not

good for the stock market.

$5 Gas may very well be the consumers? nemesis.

The point where the consumer retrenches and

reigns in spending. At least that's what the

market is telling us!

Implications for Gold: A rising Oil price and a

falling Stock Market would be a heady cocktail

for investors. Inflation would be undeniable and

the prospect of money printing to stem a falling

market would be huge. Gold has a promising future

indeed!

More commentary and an oil stock pick follows for

subscribers...

keywords: oil stocks, oil stock
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About Author
Both Michelle Bery & Greg Silberman are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Michelle Bery has sinced written about articles on various topics from Asthma, Home Security and Abdominal. For easy to understand, in depth information about stocks visit our ezGuide 2 .. Michelle Bery's top article generates over 135000 views. to your Favourites.

Greg Silberman has sinced written about articles on various topics from Stock, Nutrition and Investments. To learn more about successful investing in oil stocks and a free trial to my newsletter, please visit me at: or. Greg Silberman's top article generates over 5400 views. to your Favourites.
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