This is stock broker's phrase telling investors not to try to buy "bargains" when the market is in a free fall.
In order to lower your risks, you let the market bottom out, even bounce once or twice before buying. Just don't think you can catch that falling knife without getting hurt in the process.
The Residential Property Knife
Residential Real Estate Markets are in a free fall in many areas and I am going to go out on a limb here and say ... don't buy into this first wave of bargain hunters.
The thing that triggered this thought is an article in the WSJ about the "Foreclosure Bus" in Las Vegas.
Seems a local Real Estate Agent couple have purchased a bus and dolled it up to tour prospective buyers around to the foreclosed properties in town.
They even have a little song they and the passengers sing as they tootle around Sin City, "All aboard the Foreclosure Express, Climb aboard and get your houses for less"
Less than what?
Less negative cash flow than caused the last owner to crap out?
The example quoted in the article looks like this
3 bed
2 bath
"granite counters and a small bricked yard"
$235K in 2003
$395K in 2006
for sale now by the bank at $285K
What a bargain ....
Head's up... There's no Bounce in sight...
The problem here is you are looking at a falling knife with no bounce in sight. This residential splat is not due to bottom out until mid 2009! This is not even the midpoint of the projected meltdown in single family houses.
If you do buy a "bargain" now, here are some questions that you might want to answer before you sign the contract...
- What lender are you going to use?
Don't believe what they are telling you about loan terms. We are in a major credit crunch. Until you get to the closing table their rates and LTV's are very fluid and they may drop you altogether at any point in the process.
- What rent will you expect to collect?
Your's is not the only new rental on the market so watch for falling rents and lower quality renters.
- Will that "bargain" continue to drop in value along with the rest of the market?
There is another way
I would suggest that if you are a determined single family investor you hold all the cash you can scrape up for the REAL bargains that will start showing up as more time passes and we drop deeper into the slump.
Your "Green Light"
Another analogy from the world of stock brokers is that you are not at a market bottom until you see signs of "Capitulation". The Foreclosure bus is not one of those signs.
When the owners of the foreclosure bus have completely given up ... certain that the market is so bad no one will ever buy another house again ... when you see the Foreclosure Bus sold for scrap and mashed into a little cube by the car crusher ... THAT is Capitulation. That is your buy signal ... your green light.
That's when you take that pile of cash and start snapping up the real bargains.
In the meantime...
There's always Texas multifamily...
Sale Of Residential Property
The First W is Who.
When you are assessing a particular area you should find out who is currently buying in that area. Are they investors, owner occupiers or weekends? Are they families, young double income no kids couples, empty-nesters, or retirees?
You may well have all of these buyers in the area that you are assessing but you need to know the proportion of buyers that fall into each category
The Second W is Which.
Once you have established who is buying and what proportion of the buyers fall into each category then your next step is to ask which groups are on the increase and which groups are on the decrease.
Discovering this information will show you the buying trends for the area. Professional investors believe that the trend is your friend and always try to be buying one step ahead of the current trend.
The Third W is What.
The last W helped you identify trends. The trends that you are most interested in as an investor are the fastest growing group and the fastest shrinking group. The fastest growing group is your category for potential buyers and the fastest shrinking group is the category for your potential sellers.
The first "what" to ask is; what is the growing group looking to achieve by buying in this area. For example in the case of owner occupiers and weekenders you will be looking to identify a particular lifestyle. In the case of investors you will be looking to identify a particular form of profit potential.
The second "what" is what type of properties are they buying and the third "what" is what are they doing to those properties once they have bought them.
The fifth "what" is what is the major shrinking group hoping to achieve by selling? The sixth is what are they selling? And the seventh is what potential is there in turning what is being sold by motivated sellers into what is desired by motivated buyers.
The Fourth W is When.
When did the fastest increasing buyer category start to target this area and when are they likely to reach a virtual saturation point? Answering these two questions gives you a good idea how much high profit potential is left in the area and whether of not it is a good time for you to invest there.
The Five W is Where.
Where, specifically, is the fastest increasing buyer group buying within this area and where are those buying trends spreading to? Just like I mentioned above the trend is your friend. If you can pinpoint the location trend for motivated buyers then you can buy in front of that trend and maximize your capital growth potential.
The Sixth W is Why.
If you know why the buying habits are changing in an area then you can estimate what type of changes are likely to occur in the future, what other areas are likely to soon experience similar buying trends to this one and how much longer these buying trends are likely to last.
All this provides valuable information for helping you maximize your profit potential.
Conclusion
If you are serious about investing in residential property and you would like to maximize your profit potential then study and acquire skill at using the 6 W's approach to assessing residential property.
Both Monte Lee-wen & James Delrojo are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
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