Guide to the Stock Market

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Stock Market For 2009

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Global markets are in firm downturn. Globally Banks are worst hit and most volatile sector followed by allied financial and investment sector. Due to reduced consumer spending white goods sector is also taking good hit with home builders and real estate developers.



Indian stock market also reacted to global cue and NSE ended down by 1% . Except Nifty Junior which raised by 1% all other sectors were in red. ICICI bank was again badly hit and closed down by 4.17%. Other major looser were Bharti airtel and DLF which both ended up shedding 3.75 and 3.07% respectively.

Major gainers were Tatasteel, HDFC and ITC but they also closed significantly lower than day's highs. We recommend shorting banking stocks and manufacturing to benefit from tomorrows expected fall. It is advised to keep bets small as market is near support levels which may result in some degree of choppiness.

On global commodity front Gold has nearly recovered half of its 10% fall since last week and trading at $949.6 per ounce. We release a buy recommendation on Gold on Monday so our subscribers have gained 5% in two days!! Today we have recommended half sell to book partial profits. In our view gold will again touch its last week's low or start another leg down creating golden opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate.

Silver is another big feather in our hat as we recommended buy at $17.11 and it's currently trading at $18.40 per ounce a healthy gain of 7.5% in 2 days. Silver fell by 22% last week after making double top around $21.40 per ounce. According to our analysis silver has brilliant appreciation potential and one year target of $40 per ounce. Silver is heavily used industrial precious metal and slowly and steadily its gaining popularity as preferred jewelry metal due to very high price of Gold.

Investors which are not actively trading this is very good time to start investing in mutual funds. It is prudent to make equal combination of high yield fund and growth funds. It is preferred that investor be operating its own demat account and may use any linked broker to execute their own buy and sell decisions. We have came across the investors who try to trade Mutual Funds like stocks and end not making any profits as they shed out entry and exit load each time they switch.
Stock Market For 2009
Well it is nothing new to see the government botch up a perfectly good opportunity. There was not full disclosure on the banking bailout plan and the stimulus package had more pork fat than a cheap grade of bacon. The wording today was that "private money needed" to bailout banks, we are going"stress test" the banks to see if they can survive first. Haven't they already been failing the stress test? No white knight in shining armor came today that the world was looking for. At least the media was making the stimulus package and banking bailout plan as the solution to our pain.

The reality of the world's banking problems and economic crisis is that this problem would likely resolve faster if left up to the market forces without intervention. But the government's attempt to soften the blow is probably extending the amount of time before full recovery. So for weeks now we all have been trained like Pavlov's dogs to look to the government to bail us out and when the package is not above expectations, stocks start selling off. Not a surprising scenario.

The stock market sold off today 4.62% on the Dow30 and probably overreacted to the downside but this gives us second helpings on stocks we either missed to get in or want to make money again on the long side. All stocks were either sold or stopped out today with only one remaining position and that is a short on JPM, JP Morgan for a short swing trade.

The housing stocks got whacked the last 2 days, as the pattern has been for at least 18 months. PHM, TOL, DHI, LEN, CTX, KBH and BZH got whacked. No trade here, just an observation.

Below is a list of trade ideas on an intermediate term position (over a week to 6 months) and Swing trades which are 2-7 days.

Oil prices has drifted slightly lower to $38.16; USO stopped $28.33. Totally mishandled the oil trades on this last helping on the long side.

Intermediate Trade Positions: New ideas: IBM, International Business Machines is worth a small long position tomorrow on a dip. C, Citibank is also worth a small long position. C will take more patience on the investor's side to see it move. C won't move like BAC, WFC, or JPM did on the last run we just sold a few days ago.

HNT, Healthnet is worth a small long position as well but not sure if it will get a big bounce. This was stopped out this morning but looking for an entry to buy long if it drops.

RIMM, Research in Motion is worth a small long position, especially if it drops more the next 2 days.

Swing Trades: USB, US Bancorp overreacted on the selling and is worth going long here for a swing trade long that may last for only days.

Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas: Emeril Lagassi on Food TV says "Pork fat rules" and I have been saying that intraday trading or scalping has been ruling. Watch for a nice bounce on BAC, Bank of America, if it drops hard tomorrow morning. Keep scanning amongst these and other

past favorites for good drop and pop signals. We will also see reversals Continue to watch ICE, BLK, CME, POT, MON, MOS, AMZN, AAPL, FSLR, BIDU, WFC, JPM and any high volume, high volatility stocks.

NOTES: We are going to have second helpings on the long side with some of these stocks that have been sold off the last few days. Be patient, use small positions and use wise money management and trailing stops in intermediate trades.

I am still expecting some sort of substantial rally in the stock market sometime this year mostly driven by the massive stimulus that has already been poured into the system plus the planned stimulus package being proposed now. Longer term though, in a couple years down the road, no doubt the taxpayer is going to have to pay for such the high debt amounts that the US government (and other countries) have taken on. So tax rates probably will rise in coming years, interest rates will very likely have to rise as inflation surfaces and likely the bear market resumes sometime down the road. But we don't have to be stuck in a miserable cycle like most investors. With the techniques and approach to the market, we will still thrive.

If you have been uncomfortable shorting stocks, which most people are, learn to get used to it, this will be a useful tool in the coming years.

When I list several stocks from the same sector, like the housing industry for example, don't short all of them unless you are well diversified and it represents a small percentage of your total stock account (in that same account). REPEAT: Keep an eye out for biotechs; they are building momentum and often do well in January.

SWI (SWING): 2-7 days INT: Intermediate term position 8 days to several months. Open Price: price paid on opening long position or price sold on short position. Bold notes on table above represent changes from previous day. Current positions are highlighted in yellow.

Thoughts: Best odds only, be decisive, aggressive, mentally flexible, stay in position size, don't overtrade and wait a little longer to buy and wait a little longer to sell. You will find that will make you more money on your trades. Trade what you see, not what you hope for. Intermediate trades are really important to have trailing stop losses set. Don't trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor. Don't force anything to work for you, let the setups develop and then take advantage of that. Be patient. Stay in position sizes without letting any intraday trade represent no more than 10-15% of your total account value. As you build your account, your position size percentage should get smaller and smaller to lower your risk. Have a great day and I'll talk to you tomorrow. Mitch King
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About Author
Both Arth Sutra & Mitch King are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.

Arth Sutra has sinced written about articles on various topics from Investing and Trading, Investments and Day Trading. ArthSutra have dedicated team of experts for analyzing Indian Stock markets. We also provides trading tips and recommendations for Australian and US stock markets. Visit us for 4 week FREE trial for NSE BSE tips delivered to your inbox. Also. Arth Sutra's top article generates over 4400 views. to your Favourites.

Mitch King has sinced written about articles on various topics from Marketing, Investments and Finances. . Mitch King's top article generates over 4400 views. to your Favourites.
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