Without a doubt, 2007 was one of the worst real estate years many had seen in quite some time. In fact, many people have begun to compare the current market crash to the crash of the 1980s. While it does not appear that prices will improve this year, there are indications that the market may begin to experience some recovery next year. This could mean an improvement in prices which have appeared to be in free fall for the last few months. One of the reasons that it is anticipated that prices will begin to improve in 2009 is the fact that many experts have anticipated the market will bottom out in 2008. At first glance, this can certainly seem to be frightening news but, it is important to keep in mind that the market really cannot begin to recover until it does bottom out.
In understanding the recovery of the market it is important to look at the factors that resulted in the current real estate market slump. There are actually several factors that led to the current slump. One of the most important factors is the fact that prices in several areas throughout the country doubled between 2000 and 2005. In some cases, those prices even tripled. As a result, there were a record number of people who were unable to afford homes, especially first-time home buyers. As the number of buyers able to purchase real estate began to dwindle, resulting in price and sales declines throughout the country.
As headlines have proclaimed recently, subprime loans also contributed to the recent debacle. During the last few years, a large percentage of the number of loans that were made was issued to buyers with credit scores that were below average. Additionally, a large number of loans were made to buyers with minimal down payments. Approximately two years ago real estate prices stopped rising. At this time, a number of buyers who had snapped up houses in red hot markets suddenly discovered that the balance of their mortgage exceeded their home's values.
The rate of defaults began to escalate at this point. Before long, foreclosures also began to increase as a direct result. As more and more foreclosures hit the market, the inventory in many markets began to spiral out of control. As more homes hit the market, prices began to drop even more. To make matters even worse, economic growth began to stall and massive layoffs in many areas further fueled defaults and foreclosures.
While it has taken some time, assistance is now being provided to homeowners; which is anticipated will help to stave off the increasing rate of foreclosures. Overall, this is anticipated to help stabilize the rapidly rising inventory of homes for sale throughout the nation.
It is important to keep in mind that while headlines appear to be constantly blasting news about the softening market, there are actually some markets in the country where prices have continued to rise rather than decline. On average, real estate prices nationwide are approximately 5% less than they were last year; however, many of the metro areas in the nation are still experiencing price increases. This is largely due to first-time home buyers who can still afford to purchase properties and retiring homeowners who are selling their home sand then either moving into a retirement community or purchasing smaller properties. These markets include Salt Lake City, Utah; Charlotte, North Carolina; Beaumont, Texas and Bismarck, North Dakota.
Stock Market May 2009
So it's no wonder that when a story ran in the Florida media earlier this year about two key financial rating agencies (A.M. Best and Demotech) threatening to downgrade the ratings of dozens of Florida homeowners insurance companies unless something was done about the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund shortfall, no one paid any attention.
If these rating agencies follow through on their threat to downgrade Florida home insurance company ratings, the impact would be disastrous for all homeowners in the state.
Let's start with a look at how this potentially lethal situation was created.
The Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund (Cat Fund) charges all Florida home insurance companies a premium for reinsurance - which is insurance for insurance companies. It is merely a way to permit insurance companies to be paid back by the Cat Fund, once Florida hurricane claim losses exceed certain levels.
To address rapidly rising Florida homeowners insurance costs, the Florida Legislature passed laws in 2007 that increased the obligations of the Cat Fund by an additional $12 billion over previous levels. That move made the Cat Fund directly responsible for up to $28 billion in losses and led to some modest reductions in Florida home insurance rates.
This modification to the Cat Fund seemed like the appropriate step to take at the time, but this approach was not without its own problems. The Cat Fund relies on the full faith and credit of the State of Florida to be able to issue bonds at reasonable interest rates to cover the cost of major storms. That ability to borrow is what allows the Cat Fund to charge less for the reinsurance than insurance companies would have to pay in the private market for this coverage - and in theory, would result in lower Florida home insurance rates.
In perfectly functioning bond markets, this approach might have worked successfully for many years. However, our current financial crisis has changed all of that. Even the most credit worthy governments across the country cannot borrow all that they need from the bond markets. The Florida Cat Fund is no exception.
As the Cat fund assesses the $28 billion in exposure that it has, it has publicly stated that given the current bond markets, it has an estimated shortfall of $18 billion.
That shortfall means that it is very possible that after your Florida home insurance company satisfies its primary claim obligations after a hurricane, it can't rely on the Florida Cat Fund to reimburse it for losses above those levels. In plain English, that means that some Florida homeowners won't have their hurricanes paid in a timely fashion.
So why do the financial rating agencies care about this shortfall?
When the rating agencies issue their ratings on Florida home insurance companies they know that both you and your bank rely on those ratings to help predict the financial ability of your insurance company to pay your claim promptly and satisfactorily. These rating agencies factor into their ratings the quality of the reinsurance contracts among other things - regardless of whether those contracts are purchased in the private market or from state agencies like the Florida Cat Fund.
When the rating agencies see a potential $18 billion shortfall in the Florida Cat Fund, they know that the chances of an insurance company not being able to meet its obligations increases dramatically if the reinsurance is not reliable. That is why they have threatened to downgrade the ratings of all the Florida home insurance companies that rely on the Cat Fund.
So what will happen to you in May if the ratings downgrade happens?
You will face nothing short of a major disaster - even if you pay for mortgage on time each and every month.
Here is how this shocking scenario would play out if nothing is done to address this.
The Florida Legislature fails to close the shortfall in the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund during the 2009 session.
The rating agencies downgrade all of the Florida home insurance company ratings around May 15, 2009.
Your mortgage company or bank is notified of these downgrades and let's you know immediately that you need to find a new, more highly rated insurance company or you will be in default under the terms of your mortgage.
Because all the Florida home insurance companies are required to buy certain layers of reinsurance from the Cat Fund, you won't be able to find even one company that will satisfy your Florida mortgage lender.
Your Florida mortgage company will take action to protect the lien that it has on your home by putting forced placement insurance coverage on your home at about 4 times the amount that you had been previously paying for your Florida homeowners insurance - so if the homeowners insurance that you had been buying from your company that had its ratings downgraded was $4,000, the bank will step in and buy a forced placement policy from a company of its choosing that is now going to cost you $16,000 per year!
And here's the worst part.
You'll be paying 4 times the cost of regular Florida home insurance and you won't get a dime after a major Florida hurricane if you have a claim. Forced placement coverage only covers the unpaid balance of your mortgage and it will be paid directly to the bank, not you!
You will be financially on the hook for paying your bank the cost of that $16,000 a year policy every month until you are able to find a replacement Florida homeowners insurance company that has a rating that is acceptable to your mortgage company.
During this period of turmoil all Florida real estate transactions will come to a complete stop - which will further worsen the housing crisis in Florida.
This downgrade in the insurance company ratings is expected to happen by May 15, 2009 if the Florida Legislature does not adequately address the shortage in the Florida Cat Fund - with only two weeks remaining before the start of the 2009 hurricane season.
Unless you feel like $16,000 a year is a small price to pay to protect only your lenders interest in your property, now would be a good time to contact your Florida Legislator to ask them to clean up the mess that they created in 2007!
Both Heather Seitz & Michael Letcher are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
Heather Seitz has sinced written about articles on various topics from Finances, Foreclosure Help and Energy Healing. Heather Seitz is a national real estate investor, trainer and publisher and has worked with top advisors worldwide. To get current and accurate real estate investment tips and advice, visit. Heather Seitz's top article generates over 33100 views. to your Favourites.
Michael Letcher has sinced written about articles on various topics from Real Estate, Mortgage Insurance and Finances. Michael Letcher is a Fortune 500 executive and a licensed CPA. His on-line buyers guide can help you find low cost . Get all the sec. Michael Letcher's top article generates over 18100 views. to your Favourites.
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