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Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets

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In FOREX trading there are two common types of analysis that most traders utilize, they are fundamental and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis attempts to predict currency movement based off of political and economy indicators. Technical analysis uses historical economic information to predict changes in the FOREX market. This is the first of two articles that will explore technical analysis.



Technical Analysis is based on the following assumptions:

1.Price movements are a result of combined market forces. Political events, economic conditions, seasonal fluctuations, supply and demand are all things that can effect currency prices. Technical analysts do not concern themselves with why the market moves, they are only interested in the movements themselves.

2.Currency prices on the FOREX market follow trends. Predictable consequences have been linked with many recognized market patterns.

3. Historical trends can be used to predict current price movements. Data on the FOREX market has been collected for the last 100 years, over that time certain patterns have become emergent. Human psychology and the way people react to certain circumstances are the basis of these patterns.

Most traders consider technical analysis to be of critical importance even though they may also use fundamental analysis to support and confirm the strategy suggested by technical analysis. Unlike fundamental analysis technical analysis can be applied to many different currencies and markets at the same time. Since fundamental analysis requires detailed knowledge of the economic and political conditions of a certain country it is nearly impossible for any single trader to perform proper fundamental analysis on more than a few countries.

For the beginning trader the complexities of technical analysis may seem overwhelming and they may even wonder if it is actually necessary. If you wish to be successful at FOREX trading you must have a strategy. Any strategy can work but technical analysis has been proven as a reliable and effective method of predicting market changes. Many forces can effect currency prices though so technical analysis is no guarantee, most successful traders utilize a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.

Any quality online FOREX broker should be able to supply you with a large variety of online charts for technical analysis. You can purchase in-depth professional charts, there is usually a monthly fee involved in gaining access to this information. There is also free software available to help you with charting. Charts provide different snapshots of timeframes and usually can also have analytical overlays. These charts will provide a broad over view and can also be zoomed into the tick level. Good charts are updated in real time. These may be available on your brokers site or could be part of their software.

You should learn the market and study trends before for a period of time before you begin actively trading. Most brokers will provide you with a practice account where you can place ?paper trades?. Paper trades are just practice trades where no real money is made or lost. They act just like a real trade though so you can see exactly how your trade would have turned out if you had placed it for real. This allows you to become familiar with your brokers system and software as well as learning about the market and how it moves without risking any money while you learn.

The second part of this article will explore the various charts and technical indicators.
Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets
The failure of Lehmans is scary. Formed in 1850, this was one of the biggest investment banks in the world. It made money in a wide variety of markets, but went bankrupt with an eye popping $613 billion in bad debt.

The essential failure of Merrill Lynch is even more troubling. Saddled with bad debt, it was thought to have a solid plan for surviving. Obviously, that was not the case. With help form the Feds, Bank of America purchased Merrill for a song at $29 a share.

I cannot emphasize enough that these failures should make you and me nervous. These are huge banking efforts that make much of the financial world go. Combined with the Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae takeovers, the warning lights should be flashing.

The current market is staggeringly bad. If large banking companies keep being wiped out, the liquidity for mortgages and even basic credit cards is going to disappear. Still, nobody seems to be particularly worried.

How can this be? Ben Bernanke deserves a huge amount of credit. The Fed has been taking drastic action, but with a light touch. Many banks have been taken over, but it always happens over a weekend when media attention is low.

The end result is we have not lost faith in our banks. There has been no rush to get money out. This gives us a chance to fix the banks, but cannot help with a simple fact. The housing market is in for a long, brutal ride.

The circumstances surrounding the real estate market are so bad that many larger investors will not put money into mortgages for fear of being sued by their investors. This is because mortgage securities are viewed as being so risky.

If mortgage securities are viewed poorly, the housing market is in major trouble. With no new money coming in, loans are going to be hard to get. A lack of liquidity will drive prices down and it could get very ugly indeed.

So, are we headed for the second Great Depression? With major banks failing, how can the small guys remain afloat? With no money in mortgages, how will people get cash out of their homes? In short, is this the end of the consumer America?

Liquidity is the key. Keeping banks up and running is the immediate task and the Fed has been doing just that. The latest news that the Fed has managed to get banks to kick in $70 billion for banks in bad shape is just another step to save the industry.

The financial world is a mess. Unlike the Great Depression, the Federal Reserve is working to drag us through the crisis. We may end up bruised and bloodied, but I believe we will make it out the other side.
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