The stock market is always volatile. There are risks involved in investing your money in a company's stock. Savvy investors take the time to research the company thoroughly before investing in its stock. But one risk investors often overlook is market risk, or the volatility of one market and how it might affect another. This was seen in February 2007, in a dramatic turn when the Chinese stock market dropped a whopping 9% in a single day, causing a tidal wave effect throughout the world. The United States Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 4.3% in the Chinese aftermath, its worst decline since the terrorist attacks of 2001.
The International Organization of Securities Commissions urges investors to take the time to learn what market risks are and how they may affect investments worldwide.
Interest Rate Risks
Changes in interest rates directly affect the value of bonds. As interest rates rise, the price of previously purchased bonds falls; while dropping interest rates will increase the bond's value.
Inflation Risks
Inflation reduces a consumer's purchasing power, which also reduces the value of investments.
Currency Risks
When purchasing stocks or bonds issued by companies outside of the United States,any fluctuation in currency exchange rates can directly affect how much a stock or bond really costs, and how much you'll make when selling it.
Liquidity Risks
The ability to sell off your investments at the moment you choose can greatly affect your profit margins. Being unable to make trades due to foreign regulations, not being able to find a buyer, selling at a discount, among other reasons may cost you valuable assets.
Sociopolitical Risks
Worldwide events such as a terrorist attack, war, and even an election can all affect investor attitude toward the market and cause serious up or downturns. Worse yet, some catastrophic events can lead to wide-spread disruptions in financial markets all over the world, which can be risky for individual investors.
ICountry Risks
Country risks are similar to sociopolitical risks, with one important exception: they are tied to a specific country and the economic and political climate within it.
Legal Remedies Risk
When dabbling in the oversees market, keep in mind that problems which may arise with your investment must be handled by that governments market overseers, which may work very differently than those your used to in the United States. This in itself can be very risky for foreign investors.
While no one can completely avoid all market risks - that's what makes the financial market so profitable - there are a few things every investor can do to minimize the risk.
Do Your Homework
Take the time to research all of the things that can affect your oversees investments. Stay tuned to global economic trends and changes, and be certain that you completely understand all of the trading practices, regulatory practices and restrictions in investing internationally.
Diversify
Vary your holdings by region, country, length of holdings (long term vs. short term), product, and sector.
Investing is always risky. But don't let that scare you. Oversees markets can be very profitable, as long as the investor understands the ever-changing market risks associated with specific investments and takes the necessary precautions.
The Market Risk Premium
You must stay invested to earn the market's risk premiums. To earn market risk premiums, your assets must be invested and exposed to potential risk or loss. The more risk you can tolerate, then the higher your potential return and perhaps the rougher the investment road you may travel. Those who have better emotional tolerance for asset volatility can more easily weather market sell-offs.
The securities markets pay risk premiums. You have to have your money invested and at risk to be paid a risk premium. Attempting to avoid risk or losses by jumping in and out to "time the markets" does not work. Scientific finance studies demonstrate the both amateurs and professionals are lousy at market timing.
Historically, U.S. securities markets have paid substantial risk-adjusted returns or risk premiums to investors. While risk premiums have been substantial, they have occurred irregularly. There have been intervening periods of losses, some of which were long.
Practical considerations will also affect your tolerance of investment risk. In difficult times, whether you need to liquidate risky assets at depressed prices will depend on your expenses and on your other other holdings of less risky, salable assets. Paying necessary living expenses and taxes are good reasons to withdraw funds. Trying to time the markets for a better return is not a good reason.
If you do not need to take out money during a market retreat and recovery cycle, then risk tolerance is solely emotional. For a risk tolerant investor with stable earned income, the recent bubble crash was just a few years of unpleasantness, if he or she was fully diversified and, therefore, not heavily loaded with technology and communications equities. The same, however, could not be said for those who were poorly diversified and also found themselves to be highly risk averse, when risk actually happened. This is especially true, if job loss forced the liquidation of assets at depressed values.
To some degree, all sane investors are averse to risk, so risk tolerance is a relative rather than absolute issue. Therefore, you need to judge your preference or tolerance for risk relative to other investors. While very few people like investment risk, those who can tolerate it better are those who will be less uncomfortable when risk happens from time to time and market values decline by a little or a lot. Tolerating the potential for loss is the cost that investors occasionally pay so that they are always at the table, when the markets deliver their positive rewards.
The vast bulk of individual investors' publicly traded investment assets are held in the primary cash, fixed income, and equity financial asset classes in the form of individual securities or funds. Your relative investment risk tolerance should influence how your assets are allocated among these primary financial asset classes. If your actual asset allocation is more risky than your risk tolerance, you may not be able to handle the downturns. You might panic, when you should stand firm. If your asset allocation is less risky than your risk tolerance, then you are likely to need to spend less and save at a higher rate to reach your goals.
Nothing is certain about this process, and that is the nature of investment risk. However, the scientific investment literature is relatively clear on certain points. Amateur and professional investors are just not good at timing changes in the markets. Active strategies that attempt to time market turns have under-performed continuous investment strategies. Consistently and profitably calling serial market turns correctly has been a skill beyond mere mortals and certainly beyond the skill of even the most proud of professional and individual investors.
It is better to buy into the asset markets in proportion to your preferred asset allocation and risk tolerance and to stay in the securities markets through thick and thin. Trying to sit on the sidelines and jump in when things seem safe simply does not work. When things seem safer, they also seem safer to others. In this situation, securities prices will have already reflected this confidence. Most of the "upside juice" or risk premium will already be reflected in current asset prices and only current securities holders will have been paid.
If you stay out of the markets due to such fears, then you are likely to need to save far more to reach your goals. Over-cautiousness is not a free ride. There is never a safe time to be in the markets, because investing is always inherently risky. There is never a safe time to be out of the markets, because you cannot earn investment risk premiums on the cash under your mattress.
Both Bob Freeman & Larry Russell are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
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