Forex trading is often regarded as risky. Is this perception true or false? How does this affect our decision to trade currencies? What can we do to reduce our risk and avoid one of the majority of traders who lose money from trading.



Before we make a decision on how risky forex trading is, let's define what risk means. Risk is simply the variability of investment returns. If you graph the value of an investment portfolio over time, a low risk investment such government bond should have a smooth curve, while a riskier investment would have a more jagged curve.

The fact is that most beginning forex traders lose money. Is this a characteristic of the currency markets, or is it to do with the traders themselves?

To answer this question, we need to understand what factors contribute to risk. To an extent, risk depends on the market. If the market rapidly moves up and down, then that can contribute to variable returns. In this respect, forex markets are not more volatile than many other investments. Unlike stocks, it is impossible to manipulate currencies. The market risk of forex is comparable to other major markets.

One factor that magnifies risk in forex trading is the level of gearing, or leverage used. Typically professional traders use up to ten times gearing. That means for each dollar of their own money, they control a position of ten dollars. Many small traders using gearing of up to two hundred times, and this can rapidly magnify both gains and losses. It is best to have enough capital to be able to trade without using excessive gearing to avoid massive exposure to market risk.

One other risk is that of liquidity. This is the ability to get in or out of the market at a fair price. Recall the recent losses suffered by hedge funds trading mortgage securities ? the markets suddenly became illiquid, and they could not sell their positions at a reasonable price. In contrast, the forex markets turn over more than $1 trillion per day and are the most liquid markets available. This is not to say that there are not sudden movements from time to time, but traders can always get into or out of the market. Forex liquidity risk is low.

However market volatility andliquidity are only part of the risk equation for forex trading. Most risk comes from the individual trader's approach. These factors are controllable by the individual. This is why some traders consistently win, while others consistently lose. The trader chooses when to participate, the timeframe to trade over, which currency to trade, and how much the market should move before liquidating a position.

It is better for the trader to select their own risk parameters, based on careful testing of a trading system against the market. That way, you can know exactly when to enter or exit the market, how much you want to risk per trade and can select a risk level that you are comfortable with. This gives you a level of transparency that you don't get when you hand your money over to ?an expert? to invest, or buy a ?sure fire winning system? advertised on the Internet.

You should test your parameters against the market over a period of time using paper trading before committing real money.

In conclusion, forex trading is not more inherently risky than other forms of investment, but the new trader must understand the impact of leverage, and clearly define entry and exit criteria, how long a position should be open, profit and loss targets (which should reflect the volatility of current market conditions).

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