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Nelson who wrote the 'ABC of Stock Speculation ' designated the research
findings of Dow Jones as the Dow Jones Theory. Charles Dow was frank in
stating that his Theory is not infallible and that the real method of
forecasting the duration or extent of a primary trend was unknown to
Technical Analysis !
Identifying the Primary Trend is difficult. Even Secondary Reactions are
deceptive. There is only one Science which can forecast this and it is Stock
Market Astrology !
Fundamental Analysis concentrates on the Intrinsic Value of the Share, but
Intrinsic Value has no practical value, as stock prices are either
overpriced or underpriced. Technical Analysis can indicate whether the
market is bearish or bullish, but cannot easily identify trends. The
beginning of a Primary Bull Market may appear as a bear rally. Similarly the
start of a Primary Bear Market may appear as a bull decline. There are
unknown & hidden factors determining stock market movements like
macroeconomic, political and planetary factors. Neither Nelson's book ' The
ABC of Stock Speculation' nor Hamilton's " Stock Market Barometer"
supposed to be a Bible for stock investors ) take these hidden factors into
consideration. Stock Market Astrology alone takes into cognizance all the
five fundamental factors and can identify primary trends and secondary
reactions !
In our earlier articles, we have already given all the five factors
responsible for the major bull run on the Indian bourses.
Correlation of Planetary Cycles & Economic Cycles
Jupiter Cycles & Indian Economy
When the Narasimha Rao Government initiated liberalisation in 1991, India's
GDP growth was just 3 %. After that GDP grew at an average 6%. Jupiter was
in Leo in 1991 and now Jupiter has completed one Jupiter Cycle of 12 years.
He is starting another cycle and we will have better growth. His transit of
Scorpio was a bullish factor for India ( He was in India's lunar fifth, till
Nov ) Economic boom ( Vitha Samruddhi ) has always been predicted when
Jupiter transits the 2nd. CMIE points out that this year GDP growth will be
7.4 %.
We had in our earlier articles identified the primary trend as bullish. A
secondary reaction is expected at any moment now. The market can dip by
about 400/500 points and we have already warned our subscribers about this
danger. During the market dip you can either hold your portfolio or sell off
at high levels and enter at low levels !
The Dow Jones Theory states that Markets move in three trends - primary,
secondary & tertiary.
Primary Movement
The first, and the most important is the primary trend which is the broad
trend ( which is upward or downward ) which is known as a bull or bear
market extending over periods which may vary from less than a year to
several years and is generally interrupted by secondary reactions.
Secondary Movement
Second and the most deceptive movement is the secondary reaction - an
important decline in a bull market or a rally in a primary bear market and
which usually lasts from three weeks to three months.
Tertiary Movement
The third movement is the daily fluctuation. This is the least important of
all the three movements.
The Primary Bull Market
Averaging more than 2 years, a primary bull market is a broad upward
movement, interrupted by secondary reactions Due to improved business
conditions and increase in speculative activity stock prices advance because
of demand created by both speculation and investment.
There three characteristics of a bull period are
1) Revival of business confidence due to optimism
2) The rise of stock prices to the known improvement in corporate earnings.
3) Speculation is rampant - a period when stocks rise on expectations &
euphoria.
We have seen that there is an economic revival, corporate earnings have gone
up and speculation is becoming the order of the day.
The investor population is confused, they do not know whether it is the end
of a Bull Phase and the beginning of a Bear Phase. I was talking to a friend
and he is of the opinion that the market is overheated and may crash at any
moment ! Things are not so.
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