There are several tips how to stay on the side of value:
1.Doubling your stakes is madness. Remember if you flip a coin a thousand times and it comes up tails, the odds are still even money that it will come up tails the next time you flip it!
Conclusion: Investing lots of good money just to get back what you are losing plus a little profit, is making the risk is too high and the return too low. You are not on the side of value. Keep away from deals like that, but if involved, cut your losses and stop as soon as you can. It is far better to wait for value when trying to recoup.
To keep on buying falling foreign currency in the belief that it is bound to go up any minute, is a similar kind of example. More chance to recoup will come, when the sentiment is showing signs to support the currency you bought. Value will be knocking on the door.
When it comes to housing, value comes into play again, whether if you are selling or buying. If selling, value is found in investing a little to make the house look that much better. Whatever amount you invest to make the house nicer, it will return back twice as much, and surely help to sell the property quicker. Many sellers think that it is silly to make improvements to a house they no longer want. Yes, but they have to sell it first. If you are buying, the value is better when the prices are down rather than up. Not many lose in the long run on houses bought at sensible prices.
2.When the risk is big and the gain is big, there is no point in getting involved.
3. When the risk is small and the gain is big, in the long run you profit.
4. When there is no risk and the gain is big, beware, unless you are a burglar.
You would think that all you have to do is to follow rule 3 to succeed. Maybe so, but it requires one more thing which is, to have the rare ability to convince yourself to wait for value. Very few people have that, hence they lose money.
If you cannot find value by yourself go to experts who can.
I used to know a fellow, who thought himself a dab hand at being able to always foretell foreign currency exchange trends, but otherwise, he was quite normal. Last time I heard, he married a rich old widow just in time to avoid financial problems. I hope he got value.
