Yes we know that people are feeling the pinch, that retail sales are down, that banks were sucked into the huge mortgage fraud over in the States, that petrol has been almost as expensive as bottled water, that we have a government which has dodged any difficult fiscal decision for eleven years, that house prices are sliding from their highs etc.
There may not be many positives at the moment. However, on the plus side, most retail, building and bank stocks have now reached levels which seem to be indicating that all these factors are almost terminal for everyone.
Yields on many of the aforementioned sectors are now eye-watering. Although we can be sure that some will see their dividends cut, the same is not true of all. Those who had high dividend cover in the first place or have indicated that business, whilst not exactly stunning, is still going along at a respectable pace or those that have little or no borrowings to weigh them down should be eyed from an acquisition point of view rather than a ?get out at all costs?.
If that still seems too risky for your portfolio does that mean you should convert it into cash or start spread betting on the markets to continue to go down?
Clearly the spread betting companies, one of the few places where you can speculate on the markets to go down, are enjoying the volatile markets. They are seeing a lot of business.
However it is interesting to note that even they think there are some sectors which still look interesting.
Simon Denham of Financial Spreads recently commented ?Many years ago I was reliably informed that, aside from utilities, the best performing sectors in a recession were brewing, gambling and prostitution.
?The first was brought home in the summer with one of the biggest takeovers for some time. The $52bn sale of Anheuser-Busch to InBev. The second is evidenced by the continued strong performance of most of the major gaming companies like 888. The third is rather more difficult to quantify without some in-depth field work.
?With time to do nothing it seems that a large enough percentage of the population reverts back to the old vices of drink, gambling and the other. Enough activity to make a reasonable impact on company numbers. It is, of course, rather difficult to ?invest? in the latter but the former two have innumerable quoted companies to interest a speculative punt or two. At least it makes an interesting change from buying into ?tediously boring water company? plc.?
It should be noted that if you are looking at spread betting, the Financial Services Authority have put a temporary ban on betting on Financial Stocks to go down. Having said that, you can still spread bet on a range of other shares and assorted financial markets to fall. Continued selling of the markets still offers an interesting angle for the more pessimistic (realistic?) amongst us.
Of course, looking at what the professionals are saying, if you do not fancy that form of investing then there are the above sectors which are more recession resistant.
Note that spread bets carry a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all classes of investor. Only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Make sure you fully understand the risks involved. If necessary, seek independent financial advice.