According to Morgan Stanley, falls in the value of the UK commercial property to the end of 2009 show an increase in total negative equity from ?13 billion to ?41 billion. Morgan also says an increase in the amount of negative equity at risk from the need to re-finance is likely to rise sharply from ?2.6 billion to ?8.2 billion.

Since August, the total returns on swap-market expectations for capital growth in 2010 have turned negative, increasing the overall predicted downside in property values, and have extended the period of debt refinancings by a year.

This has forced the broker to extend its modelling period to the end of 2010, which results in an increase in negative equity by the end of the period to ?54 billion. It also doubles to ?16 billion the amount of negative equity that is vulnerable because of debt refinancings.

Morgan Stanley's views succeeded in depressing an already badly battered property sector today. British Land fell 13p to 540p, Land Securities lost 11'p at 953'p and Segro was down 12'p at 247p.