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Summary of Overnight News:
• The FTSE-100 will open slightly higher, encouraged by last night's positive performance by Wall Street,
although much will depend upon another barrage of earnings due in the UK today, while rate decisions in the
UK and Europe will also be eyed, dealers said.
• US stocks closed higher on Wall Street last night as investors put their interest rate worries on hold and
welcomed strong earnings reports from Time Warner and Procter & Gamble.
• The DJIA ended 74.20 points higher at 11,199.93, while the Nasdaq finished 16.82 points up at 2,078.81.
• Overnight across Asia, the Nikkei 225 index began its afternoon session 47.71 points higher at 15,512.00, while
the Hang Seng was up 2.24 points at 17,034.99 at midday.
• Oil prices were higher in Asia, adding to sharp gains made overnight amid concerns that an approaching storm
could hit vital US oil installations, and after a decline in US crude reserves.
• Worries about the continued conflict between Israel and Lebanon also kept crude prices high.
• Meanwhile, the Dollar firmed in FX ahead of the BOE & ECB meetings. These dominate the day ahead along
with services PMIs
USA
Figures out Today:
13:30 US jobless claims (w/e 29/7) k Prev 298
15:00 US factory orders (Jun) %m/m Prev 0.7
15:00 US ISM non-manufacturing (Jul) Prev 57.0
Europe
Figures out Today:
08:55 GE PMI services survey (Jul) Exp 61.5 Prev 61.0
09:00 EA PMI services survey (Jul) Exp 60.8 Prev 60.7
10:00 EA retail sales (Jun) %m/m Exp 1.2 Prev -0.6
10:00 EA retail sales (Jun) %y/y Prev 0.3
12:45 ECB interest rates (Aug) % Exp 3.00 Prev 2.75
UK
Figures out Today:
09:30 PMI services survey (Jul) Exp 58.5 Prev 58.7
12:00 BoE announces rates (Aug) % Exp 4.75 Prev 4.50
• With a 25bp rate hike to 3.0% by the ECB fully priced in by financial markets, the main focus will be on the
Bank of England. Only 7 ex 46 City economists forecasting a rate hike understates the risks of a move in rates –
especially as this meeting coincides with the Bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report and forecast round (the
first since the Blue Book’s upward revisions to GDP). With the UK economy growing at its fastest pace for two
years, consumer spending and borrowing proving more resilient than expected and growing evidence of upside
inflation risks (import price inflation at decade highs, less generous price discounting by retailers and rising
factory gate inflation), August’s Inflation Report provides an opportune moment for a pre-emptive rise in base
rates as a precaution against any future overshoot in CPI inflation. Even if rates are left on hold, the next
fortnight could be bumpy for sterling markets with the publication of the Inflation Report next week and the
Minutes the week after.
EURO US DOLLAR @ 1.2768 GB POUND US DOLLAR @ 1.8760 GB POUND EURO @ 1.4690 USDJPY @ 114.75
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