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Informed sources, including the Stratfor
Consulting Group, believe that the action was
taken to undermine the popularity of President
Ahmadinejad among the Iranian public. Many
elements in the Iranian government, including the
military, Ayatollah Khameni, the parliament, and
other power centers believe that he has gone too
far with his rhetoric and actions toward the U.S.
and the West.
In essence, this action is the result of a
struggle for control between the pragmatic
conservatives, represented by the above groups
and the ultra conservatives headed by Ahmadinejad
and his allies.
This announcement is widely believed to be a
herald of more instability in Iran. Some believe
that the price increases and rationing could lead
to riots and other problems for the Ahmadinejad
regime. I have previously mentioned in memos that
all was not well within the Iranian economy, and
this news will be badly received by the public at
large, in our opinion.
If riots occur, we can reasonably expect a higher
risk premium for oil and higher oil prices. This
will lead to more inflation pressures in the
world. More inflation pressures mean higher
interest rates, higher commodity prices and
higher gold prices.
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Any opinions expressed herein, are subject to
change without notice. In addition, there are
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