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2007 Nfl Draft Picks

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (14-2 SU, 9-7 ATS): New Head Coach Norv Turner takes over from conservative Marty Schottenheimer. Turner figures to open up the offense, not that you want to stray too far from handing the ball off the NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson. Known for developing quarterbacks, Turner should help Pro Bowler Philip Rivers, now in his second year as a starter. The line is nasty and TE Antonio Gates is the best at his position but Rivers lacks a stud wide receiver. The 3-4 defense, led by LB Shawn Merriman and NT Jamal Williams, is top notch. San Diego is a definite Super Bowl contender.



By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 66-78

ATS: 72-65-7

HF: 19-16-2

HD: 14-16

AF: 9-8

AD: 29-22-5

Sportsbook Buster: The Chargers are 7-1 ATS versus the Raiders, the last eight meetings.

Sports Betting Angle: San Diego is 13-2 ATS as an underdog in its second straight road game.

DENVER BRONCOS (9-7 SU, 5-11 ATS): The Broncos were busy in the off-season, making a series of moves that could land them back in the playoffs after missing the post-season party for the first time since 2002, last year. RB Travis Henry, TE Daniel Graham, DT Sam Adams and QB Patrick Ramsey (a backup to Jay Cutler) all came via free agency while CB Dre Bly was garnered in a trade with Detroit. The offense figures to pound the ball on the ground with Henry while the defense, which allowed 26.1 PPG over the final 10 games of the season, will get an aggressive tune-up from new coordinator Jim Bates.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 90-74

ATS: 71-66-7

HF: 31-35-3

HD: 2-0-1

AF: 20-20-2

AD: 18-10-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Broncos are a combined 1-9-2 against the Bears (Nov. 25) and Vikings (Dec. 30).

Sports Betting Angle: Denver is 1-10 ATS coming off a SU win as an underdog.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS): Priest Holmes is back in camp as insurance against a protracted holdout by Larry Johnson, the heart of the Chiefs running attack. With steady but unspectacular Damon Huard replacing Trent Green at quarterback, KC will need Johnson to bring some much needed stability to the offense. The drafting of speedy WR Dwayne Bowe could open up lanes for superb TE Tony Gonzalez but the offensive line is a real concern. The addition of LBs Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris should boost the performance of an improving defense.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 76-68

ATS: 72-67-5

HF: 30-21-2

HD: 10-6-2

AF: 12-18

AD: 18-22-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Chiefs are 7-1-2 ATS versus the Chargers, the previous 10 meetings.

Sports Betting Angle: At 40-27-4 ATS, Kansas City has proven to be a solid play at home.

OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-14 SU, 6-10 ATS): At 31, Lane Kiffin will be the NFL’s youngest head coach, a job made all the more difficult by an offense that averaged just over 10 points a game last season. Franchise quarterback JaMarcus Russell, the No. 1 overall pick, will bring some excitement—-but probably not too many wins—-in his first season with the silver and black. Kiffin has a stronger hand on defense where the Raiders finished third overall in yards allowed and first in pass against the pass last year.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 64-80

ATS: 61-77-5

HF: 22-25-2

HD: 7-14-1

AF: 9-12-1

AD: 24-25-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Raiders are a surprising 4-1 ATS their last five games versus the Colts, who they play in Oakland, Dec. 16.

Sports Betting Angle: Oakland has lost 11 of its last 12 home games ATS versus the division.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

Fourth of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the NFC East
2007 Nfl Draft Picks
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS): His personal problems behind him, Head Coach Andy Reid should lead the Eagles to their seventh playoff appearance in the last nine years. Returning from injury and motivated by the drafting of Houston QB Kevin Kolb, Donovan McNabb will be the key to Philadelphia’s offensive success. RB Brian Westbrook is nothing if not versatile and the offensive line had all five starters play all 16 games last year. The Eagles attack on defense, blitzing as much as any team in the league. The corners can handle that pressure but Philadelphia needs to upgrade its rush defense, ranked 26th in the NFL last year, to make a playoff run.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 83-61

ATS: 80-59-5

HF: 23-23-1

HD: 13-9-3

AF: 18-11

AD: 26-17-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Eagles are a stellar 8-1 ATS versus the Vikings, who they play in Minnesota, Oct. 28.

Sports Betting Angle: Philadelphia is 11-1 ATS the week after playing the NY Giants. This year’s post Giants foes are the Jets (Oct. 14) and the Cowboys (Dec. 16).

DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS): Taskmaster Bill Parcells has retired, turning over the reigns to easy-going Wade Phillips, who earned his reputation forming the San Diego defense. Indeed, Dallas should be more aggressive (and more productive) in the Phillips 3-4, than under Parcells, who was more conservative. On offense, there’s a question whether QB Tony Romo can rebound from a devastating playoff loss (the botched field goal hold in Seattle) and whether WR Terrell Owens can be placated. Julius Jones and Marion Barber form a tough running tandem but the line is just average. The Cowboys should be in the wild card hunt.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 67-77

ATS: 69-69-6

HF: 25-21-4

HD: 14-7

AF: 8-11

AD: 23-28

Sportsbook Buster: Their last six meetings, the Cowboys are 0-5-1 ATS versus the Giants, who they play Sept. 9 and Nov. 11.

Sports Betting Angle: Dallas is 4-15 ATS versus non-conference foes on the road.

NEW YORK GIANTS (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS): The pressure is on Head Coach Tom Coughlin and QB Eli Manning to produce. Coughlin, not the most popular of coaches, needs Manning to improve on his 18-24 TD to interception ratio. That might be difficult now that RB Tiki Barber (1,662 yards rushing) has retired and the offensive line lost Luke Petitgout. Jeremy Shockey is a gifted tight end while Plaxico Burress and Amani Toomer (if the latter is healthy after ACL surgery) are competent wideouts. On defense, the Giants must address problems in their secondary but new coordinator Steve Spagnuolo hopes to minimize that concern with a strong pass rush. Manning will have to have a big year for New York to reach the playoffs.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 73-71

ATS: 69-73-1

HF: 23-29-1

HD: 8-10

AF: 15-9

AD: 23-23-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Giants have covered three straight against the Jets, who they play Oct. 7.

Sports Betting Angle: New York is 10-2 as an underdog against the AFC East.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS): Jason Campbell got the call in week 11 and now has the job at quarterback but will Washington open it up or play it tight this year? The return of Clinton Portis, who missed the final seven weeks of the season with a broken hand, and the return of Ladell Betts (1,154 yards rushing) suggest that the Redskins will be primarily a running team. If Campbell wants to throw, TE Chris Cooley and wideouts Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, are quality targets. The Washington defense, which ranked 31st in the NFL last season and set a league record for fewest turnovers (12) in a 16-game schedule needs to improve dramatically if the Redskins are to climb out of the NFC East basement.

By the Numbers (Regular Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 65-79

ATS: 66-73-5

HF: 18-23-2

HD: 12-15

AF: 8-11-1

AD: 27-18-1

Sportsbook Buster: The Redskins have failed to cover six straight games against the Packers, who they play in Green Bay, Oct. 14.

Sports Betting Angle: Washington has been an adept road underdog, a position in which the team is likely to find itself seven or eight times this season.

Legend:

SU = Straight Up

ATS = Against the Spread

HF = Home Favorite

HD = Home Underdog

AF = Away Favorite

AD = Away Underdog

Fifth of an eight-part NFL betting preview series

Next: Analyzing the NFC North

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