What are the most simple things you studied or knew in technical analysis that you can use in FOREX trading?, of course most will answer this without even thinking about it, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages. The more professional traders will think more about it and would answer ?Yes, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages but who can use them alone successfully in trading FOREX??.
Here it is my turn to answer, trend lines, resistance and support points and moving averages are the best simplest ways to achieve success trading FOREX and keep in the positive area always.
Just to make it simple we need first to state the definition of these tools and later to know how to use and apply them to our chart in order to succeed and build a real FOREX fortune.
1. Trend Line : Trend line is the line that we can draw between two or more price tops or bottoms on a chart whatever was the type of the chart ?linear, bars or candlesticks?, this line itself which could be an uptrend line which is being drawn between bottoms in a bullish market and it becomes a good support if the price goes south again or a downtrend line which is being drawn between price tops on the chart when market is down and it considered as a resistance when the price turns to up direction.
Note: The line which touches more tops or bottoms is more stronger and the signal produced by it is more reliable.
2. Trend Channel : A trend channel is the space between two lines, the trend line and a parallel line to it which is always drawn on the opposite side of the trend line so it is drawn between tops in an up trend direction or through bottoms in a bearish price movement. The trend channel requires some conditions to give an accurate signal, the most important are: to be a wide channel, more wider more reliable and to last more longer.
3. Moving Average : Moving average is a mathematical average of set of prices we can say that a simple moving average (SMA) with value of 5 and applied to close is the sum of close prices for 5 moving bars on the chart divided to 5 (eg. the average of Friday is the sum of the previous 5 days ?week? on a daily chart divided to 5, while Thursday's average is the sum of the 5 days before divided to 5 and so, the moving average is the line which passes through these averages points?, the most important condition for its reliability is its value, more greater value more reliable moving average.
Note: I suggest using more than one moving average, 2 or 3 are acceptable.
4. Support And Resistance Points : Support points are the price points were tested more than two times when price was going south and it could not pass it, support points are completely the opposite. These points are being used to measure the probability of price turning at mean points, these points can be decided by using ?pivot points, fibonacci rates....etc.?
Note : The more times price touches a point and turn its direction the more stronger it is.
How can we apply this to chart and get money, I'll summarize this in the following chart image, it explains itself, it's a chart for GBP/JPY, signal return was 1000+ pips in 2 days:
Three moving averages were going south, trend line was broken ?price in green circle? a good support point ?23.6% fibonacci was nearly broken?, strong signal, yes? For the chart please visit
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Forex Trading Technical Analysis
Political and economic conditions may affect currency prices; FOREX traders rely on news reports regarding various economic factors, such as the unemployment rate, the current administration's policies, and inflation or growth rates. Examination of these factors is what is known as “fundamental analysis”.
This type of analysis is primarily used to get the “large picture” view of currency market movement, and to determine the economic conditions that affect a particular currency. It is usually considered supplemental to “technical analysis”, which is relied on for establishing specific points of market entry and exit.
Economic conditions affect supply and demand; these forces in turn affect currency prices on the market. The strength of the current economy and the current interest rates are the two most important factors for examination. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), our nation's trade balance, and the amount of foreign investment all affect economic strength.
Both government and educational institutions release various “indicators” – generally reliable ways to measure economic vitality – on a weekly or, more often, monthly basis. These are followed by all segments of the market. In the United States, 28 key indicators are used, of which interest rates and international trade balances are two of the most important. Other primary factors include: retail sales numbers, the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), Durable Goods Orders, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and, of course, the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The CPI weighs the cost of living. The PPI measures production costs. The GDP is a means of determining the value of goods and services produced within the country. Also, the total amount of all currency is measured by the M2 Money Supply.
Currencies can be both strengthened and weakened by rising and falling interest rates. High rates can strengthen a local currency by attracting foreign investment; however, investors may sell holdings in reaction to a rise in rates on the theory that a higher cost of borrowing capital will have a negative impact on many corporations, causing a downturn in both the stock market and national economy. Many factors go into determining whether foreign investment increases or local stock market downturns will predominate; however, observers usually come to a shared understanding of the ways in which the economy as a whole. The price of a specific currency in particular, will be affected by a change in interest rates.
A trade deficit (more imports than exports) is generally considered an unfavorable indicator, because the country is spending more money to buy foreign-made goods than it's bringing in through sales of its own products. This may have the effect of devaluing the nation's currency. Market expectations have a say in determining whether or not a particular deficit trade balance will be considered unfavorable – if it's normal for a country to operate with a trade deficit, that's already factored into the currency price.
A trade deficit only affects currency price negatively when it exceeds the normal deficit level expected by the market. It is important for FOREX traders to be aware of the leading indicators in preparation of trading strategies. Thus, many websites and FOREX brokers provide continually updated information to traders as part of the services they offer.
Both Moneytec & Richard M. Davieess are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
Moneytec has sinced written about articles on various topics from Forex Analysis, Forex Guide and Forex Trading Forex. Balayya is an active trader at MoneyTec, - Active Traders Community Forum, Chat. MoneyTec is an online trading community that promotes mature, intelligent & respectfu. Moneytec's top article generates over 1000 views. to your Favourites.
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