Technical analysis believes that prices tend to follow patterns. Therefore, if one analyzes past price patterns, one can more easily predict what prices will be in the future.
Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, studies a nation's overall economy. Proponents of fundamental analysis focus on the "big picture," and believe that price trends are best predicted to analysis of the various economic indicators; this, in turn, gives a picture of the overall economic health, which in turn helps one predict what the market is going to do.
Of the two, which is better?
Well, neither is, really. In fact, each has its strengths and weaknesses, and when you use both types of analysis and work in tandem with them, you're going to get your most accurate picture. This in turn is going to make you a more successful trader. If you limit yourself to just one or the other, this can give you inaccurate results, which will lead to improper analysis; this, in turn, can cause you great disaster as a trader.
Why is this true?
If you utilize just fundamental analysis or technical analysis, you're only getting half of the picture. Let's take an example to illustrate this point.
If you are focusing strictly on technical analysis, for example, you might not put much stock in fundamental analysis, if at all. Your belief is that your price charts are your saviors, so that you have no need for economic indicators.
In studying your charts, let's say that you see an opportunity coming up. Three or four indicators are telling you that there's going to be a huge breakout. In fact, the United States dollar is looking as though it's going to go on a rampage, and you want to get in on it early. So you make the trade, sit back, and wait to see what happens. Of course, prices will soar, right?
But instead of rising, the price drops 50 pips. What happened?
To provide yourself some distraction, you flip on the television, and there, lo and behold, is the US financial report. In fact, the latest unemployment numbers have just been released and the number is much higher than was expected. Simultaneously, one of the world's largest companies has announced that its earnings were well under what it had forecasted, and sales are also expected to be sluggish for at least the next quarter.
These two elements have caused the price to drop instead of rise as you had expected. You would not have been caught out like this if you had utilized a little fundamental analysis along with all of your technical analysis and price charts.
However, you can't use fundamental analysis alone, either. Fundamental analysis is great at giving a "big picture" view, which gives you general trends in price movement. However, you can't get close enough in detail with this type of analysis to provide exit and entry points. For example, you may know that the Swiss franc will soon have a price increase, but you won't know how much. You also won't know when you should buy and sell.
Therefore, only by utilizing both technical and fundamental analysis in your trading system can you become a successful trader.
Technical And Fundamental Analysis
It is important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on the company and economic events while technical analysis focuses primarily on price action and market behavior.
Technical analysis include chart patterns, %change, new highs/lows, breakouts, etc...
In this thread I will be explaining some of the important information for fundamental analysis. While the TRIN, TICK, PC ratio, premium, tape,etc... all give clues about the health of the market, fundamentals provides us information on the health of the company and its sector.
Let's go over a few key data.
1. Market capitalization: number of shares outstanding x share price
This data gives us an idea of the company size. Companies are classified according to its size: small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap.
2. EPS: Net income or earnings of the company / number of shares outstanding
This data shows us the profitability of a company.
3. P/E Ratio: Last trade price / earnings per share
One of the most important piece of information to determine whether a company is overvalued or undervalued. Useful number to compare the P/E ratio to other companies. A high P/E ration indicates an overvalued company. A low P/E ration indicates a undervalue company. It is important to compare the company you are analyzing to different companies in the same sector.
Other fundamental tools: revenue, price-to-sales, R&D, debt/equity, management effectiveness ratios, cash flow from operations, etc...
When analyzing the company it is important to ask several questions: What type of business is the company in? How do they earn profits? Does the company profit in during an economic expansion or decline? These are just a few questions you need to ask yourself when analyzing a company. For example, oil companies profit when oil prices are high while airline companies struggle with high oil prices. Home building companies do well during an economic expansion because consumers will look to build new homes. During a recession, a company such as Home Depot may profit because consumers can not afford to spend money on a new home and will look for renovation instead.
Identifying Market Share: industry leaders
Picture the sector of the company as a pie. Whoever owns a bigger piece has a bigger market share. A smaller company will have more difficulties competing with a company that holds the majority of market share.
Look to see the rank of your company within the sector. IBO or Investor's Business Daily is a good place for research market leaders and sector strength.
Insider Transactions
Insider buying and selling must be reported to the SEC so this information is readily available to the public. It is always good to know that the CEO of a company has just purchased shares of its company. Why? These people are in the front lines of the company and hold information that the public does not know. If for example, the president, chairman, and directors are selling a significant amount of shares this can indicate a fundamental problem in the company. However, if the selling is small do not be alarmed. They may be selling shares to purchase a new home, new car, or paying for their childrens education.
Generally, you would prefer to own a stock with insiders owning shares. An insider with a large stake in his company is likely to run a company more efficiently than an insider with no stake in his company.
Analyst Ratings
I personally do not pay much attention to analysts ratings. Instead I prefer to do my own research. Here is a ranking of stocks:
1. Strong buy: Indicates a company that will outperform that market over the next 1-2 years.
2. Buy: Indicates a company stock prices will rise.
3. Attractive: Indicates a stock in good value.
4. Accumulate: Indicates an uptrending stock. Analysts recommend investors to buy on the pullbacks.
5. Market outperform: Indicates a stock that outperform the S&P 500.
6. Market perform: Indicates a stock to perform similar to the S&P 500.
7. Market underperform: Indicates a stock to perform less than the S&P 500.
8. Hold: Analysts would not recommend adding new shares. If an investor owns shares in his portfolio an analyst recommends to hold.
9. Avoid: Analyst does not recommend adding any new shares.
10. Sell: Analyst is very negative about a company and recommends a sell.
11. Strong Sell: Indicates a strong fundamental problem with the company.
One important thing to understand is that the analyst maintains a relationship with the company. Many analysts will not issue a sell rating because this will affect their relationship. Instead they may downgrade a stock from market outperform to market perform. Issuing a sell rating may hurt the brokerage firm and companies future business relationship.
All publicly traded companies are required to submit a financial statement called the 10-Q and 10-K by the SEC. You can also request additional information at the companies investor relations department.
Both Ian Armstrong & James Lee are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
Ian Armstrong has sinced written about articles on various topics from Mobile Phone Reviews, Forex Guide and Finances. Ian Armstrong is an avid Forex enthusiast.Ian recommends downloading the free beginner's guide to Forex trading at . Ian Armstrong's top article generates over 18100 views. to your Favourites.
James Lee has sinced written about articles on various topics from Information Technology, Day Trading and Build Muscle. James Lee is a full-time day trader specializing in the mini-sized Dow futures. His core trading strategy is based on pivot point clusters and Market Profile. Find out how to identify high probability trading opportunities at. James Lee's top article generates over 1900 views. to your Favourites.
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