The average price of a home sold in Canada will fall this year for the first time in a decade and might not even recover by 2010, the Canadian Real Estate Association said Monday. The Ottawa-based group, which represents 100 boards across the country, updated its forecast in light of new economic conditions and now expects home prices to drop 0.6 per cent this year and 2.1 per cent next year. Three months ago the group was forecasting price increases for this year and next year.
"Canadian economic growth is being side-swiped by financial market turmoil, slowing world economic growth and weaker commodity prices," says Gregory Klump, chief economist with CREA. "The question of whether Canada will avoid a technical recession is moot, growth will be slow enough that it will feel like a recession."
The forecast comes on the same day Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said new home construction remains strong, but economists cast doubt on the strength of that market, too.
"While new home construction in Canada has been holding up quite well thus far, we expect starts to weaken considerably over the next year," said Dina Cover, an economist with TD Bank Financial Group. She expects a decline in the part of the market that includes economist Dina cover condominiums.
"We expect this month's drop in multiple-family units to continue and to put a major dent in the headline figure."
CMHC said there were 211,800 units constructed in October on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down three per cent from a month earlier. The Crown corporation said last month that for the first time in seven years it expects housing starts to dip below 200,000 in 2009. It is forecasting a 16.1 per cent decline in new home construction next year.
Klump said despite the fact Canada is still building more homes than are required based on demographics, existing home sales have not been affected. CREA expects housing sales will decline by 12 per cent this year from 2007 and then fall another three per cent next year. It expects improving conditions in 2010.
"The pricing environment will be more firm than it is now," said Klump, adding it's too early to say whether prices will rise in 2010.
CREA president Calvin Lindberg also repeated his position Monday that the U. S. housing market is much different, most notably because the Canadian market does not have the same oversupply of homes.
House Prices Fall 2009
Cash rich Buy to Let investors are waiting to pounce on bargains and take advantage of an ever weakening market, says RICS' UK housing market survey published this week. The South West has shown the greatest increase in demand with a net 12 percent of Chartered Surveyors reporting a rise in new buyer enquiries, the highest figure in the region since May 2007.
The South West house price boom has traditionally been connected to the growth in holiday lets and second homes and investors are closely watching those struggling at the margins.
This news comes as the average number of transactions per surveyor fell to less than one per week in September as a lack of mortgage finance continued to stifle the ability of buyers to access the market.
New instructions to sell property stayed in negative territory with 14 percent more Chartered Surveyors reporting a fall than a rise, a drop from 2 percent in August. With the decline in house prices unlikely to abate in the near term and the likelihood of achieving a sale a distant memory, many are placing their property on the market for rent or sitting tight while the financial turmoil continues. The market has still yet to experience significant numbers of forced sales but surveyors are surprisingly optimistic that sales will increase over the next three months.
The balance of surveyors reporting house price falls rose for the first time since April. 84.2 percent more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in house prices, an increase from 81.8 percent in August.
Meanwhile the continued inability of many to secure mortgage finance is reflected in a further drop in transactions. The average number of transactions per surveyor (over the last three months) is now at 11.5, the lowest figure since the survey began in 1978. London is the worst hit region with Chartered Surveyor estate agents reporting only eight sales on average over the past three months.
Buyer enquiries rose to the highest net balance for 16 months. 17 percent more Chartered Surveyors reported a fall than a rise in new buyer enquires compared to 27 percent in August. Sellers have been forced to drop asking prices to more realistic levels but even so the gap between asking and selling prices continues to widen.
For the first time since June 2007 the net balance of surveyors expecting sales to improve turned positive.
RICS spokesperson Jeremy Leaf said: "The recent turmoil in the financial markets has dented confidence further but the announcement by the Government that the re-capitalisation of banks will be accompanied by increased lending to home owners, raises the possibility that the lack of mortgage finance that has so damaged the housing market might be eased.
"As it stands, only those with significant finances are in a position to access the market. The housing market continues to hold its breath and unless mortgage liquidity improves, the market is likely to remain a dormant beast for some time to come."
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