No matter what investment discipline you use, there are three important variables for measuring your success - peak-to-valley drawdown, beta, reward/risk ratio. The first and most important factor is your measure of risk. Performance volatility is a measure of the variability of an investment's rate of return.
Specifically, it is the standard deviation of the sample set of monthly returns that have been observed for the investment over the interval being considered. A simple way to measure a good stock market timing system is to calculate the largest peak-to-valley drawdown that has or would have occurred in the last five years. This drawdown is your measure of risk.
Second, is your beta to the overall market. Beta is an important variable that measures portfolio or timing system volatility as compared to an index. Most Betas are calculated based on the S&P 500 index. A beta of one tells you that the system has the same volatility (i.e. risk) as the S&P 500 index. A beta of two tells you that the system has twice the volatility as the S&P 500 index.
By actively managing your money, your stock market timing system should allow you to reduce the beta of your portfolio as compared to the index you are trading and substantially improve your returns over time.
Third, is your reward/risk ratio, which calculates your reward as compared to your risk. In order to calculate this, you need to know your average rate of return. A rule of thumb is that your return should be at least twice as large as your risk. For example, if your largest peak-to-valley drawdown percentage over the last five years is 15%, your average rate of return should be at least 30%. In other words, your reward/risk ratio (30%/15% = 2) should be 2 or greater.
The best stock market timing system for you will depend a lot on your personality, specifically your tolerance for risk. You might think a trend timing system that averages 80% is a great system, but what if I told you that system had a risk potential of 35%?
Most people cannot tolerate a system that decreases their investment capital more than 20%. Your tolerance and ability to accept risk should help you identify a stock market timing system that's right for you.
There are only a few systems available that really work. Most come and go like mayflies on a warm summer's day. When evaluating a timing system, it's important to consider all of the above factors plus whether or not the system has survived and prospered over at least a five year period. If they've made it through the last five to six years, you've likely found a good stock market timing system.
How To Play The Stock Market
(1) What specific stocks will I buy?
(2) When should I buy these stocks?
(3) How should I buy these stocks?
(4) When should I sell these stocks?
(5) How should I sell these stocks?
In addition, the answers for questions #2, #3, #4, and #5 should vary depending upon the different components of an individual's stock portfolio. If the answers for questions #2 , #3. #4, and #5 exhibit no variance, then the risk profile for all stocks in the portfolio will be the same, an undesirable trait.
There is a very good reason why people that try to mimic the portfolios of very wealthy successful investors never can achieve nearly the same success as the investors they mimic. The reason is that they can only answer one piece of the above 5-part investment puzzle– the question of what to buy. In fact, I could open up my portfolio to investment novices, show them all the stocks I own now, and out of 1,000 novices, all of them would have an extremely difficult time duplicating my future returns. In fact, it's entirely plausible that investors would lose significant amounts of money on the very same stocks that would produce my largest gains.
Again, understanding a complete investment system will determine portfolio returns, not just knowing what to buy.
Why Most Investment Firms' Strategies Fail to Adequately Address the 5 Questions
The evolution of job titles for investment professionals from broker to financial consultant to financial advisor is ironic, because the original title, for the great majority of employees in this industry, is by far the most accurate. Most financial consultants are nothing more than brokers that broker the money you give to them. They serve as middlemen between you and the money managers hired by the firm, and are so interchangeable with one another that a retail investor's portfolio returns are not likely to vary significantly from one consultant to another at the same firm.
Back when I worked as a “broker” at a Wall Street firm, I remember hearing a story about a very successful (meaning high-income earner) financial consultant that bought nothing but exchange traded funds (ETFs) for his clients. His rational for doing so was four-fold.
(1) Mutual fund expenses were too high (true);
(2) Expenses on ETFs were low (true);
(3) The overwhelming majority of money managers can't beat the performance of the major domestic indexes (true); and
(4) Therefore, ETFs were the best way to invest for his client (false).
Global investment firms never train their brokers how to be superior stock pickers. They train them how to be superior salespeople. So in concluding that allocating entire portfolios solely to ETFs was the absolute best possible strategy for his clients, this particular consultant's logic was erroneous. The consultant drew this conclusion solely based upon his foundation of investment knowledge, one primarily filled with investment sales strategies. In fact, though I was never able confirm this, I heard many anecdotal stories that this particular financial consultant was able to outperform the vast majority of financial consultants at the firm with his “I will only buy ETFs” strategy.
Though I wouldn't be surprised if this were true, the fact that this particular consultant was able to gather so many clients based on such a faulty strategy was a remarkable statement about the average investor's knowledge of how to build wealth. To me, as unknowledgeable as financial consultants are about proper wealth building strategies (given their constant diet of investment sales strategies), this proves that the average retail investor, even those with millions of investable assets, are far less knowledgeable.
In conclusion, every retail investor should thus utilize the 5 questions of building wealth to determine if his or her investment strategy is faulty or strong. With any strong investment strategy, all 5 questions will be relevant. Own a faulty investment strategy and most likely, one or more of the 5 questions will be irrelevant. And the faultiness of the strategy no doubt will be manifested in weak returns. To illustrate how the 5 questions of building wealth will “out” any poor investment strategy, let's take a look at a couple of examples. Let's start with two different portfolios, one primarily built around ETFs; the other primarily built around Mutual Funds.
(1)What Specific Stocks Should I Buy?
Neither the Mutual Fund or ETF strategy can answer this question, so you don't even need to ask the final four questions to know that neither of these strategies will help you build wealth.
How about a portfolio that consists of all individual Chinese stocks? This portfolio passes question #1, the question of what specific stocks to buy. Next, if we drill down to see how this portfolio was constructed, the portfolio manager's answers to questions #2 and #3 - “When were these stocks bought and why?” and “How were these stocks bought and why?” – will reveal whether or not the portfolio was indeed constructed solidly.
Finally the portfolio manager's answers to questions #4 and #5 - “How will these stocks be sold and why?” and “When will these stocks be sold and why?” will reveal if strategies are in place to lock in profits or minimize potential losses. However, remember the earlier point I made in this article: “the answers for questions #2, #3, #4, and #5 should vary depending upon the different components of an individual's stock portfolio.” Most likely for a portfolio built on stocks that trade in a frothy, emerging market, there will be little variance in the answers for questions #2, #3, #4 and #5. This lack of variance again would expose the weakness of this investment strategy.
Although just a rough guide, the 5 questions should provide you a quick way to establish the intelligence and strength of your current investment strategy.
Both John M. Mcclure & J.s. Kim are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
John M. Mcclure has sinced written about articles on various topics from Property Guide, Best Mutual Funds and Stock. John M. McClure is CEO and President of EquiTrend Inc., a stock market timing system that averages 42% profits per year. Mr. McClure is also a Registered Investment Advisor and President of the National Association of Active Investment Managers.. John M. Mcclure's top article generates over 2900 views. to your Favourites.
J.s. Kim has sinced written about articles on various topics from Finances, Higher Education and Finances. J.S. Kim is the founder and managing director of SmartKnowledgeU™, LLC, a unique investment education system. Please
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