Bird or H5N1 flu represents a spreading mortal danger globally. Millions and millions of people traverse the globe each and every day, crossing borders both legally and illegally. If does not matter if the spread is sea, air, train or donkey in the end. In the end a virus at one small village in a remote geographical door can be spread to hundreds if not thousands of potential victims of the malady. The fortuitous nature all depends in the end on chance - on the cunning nature of the influenza virus to mutate - in this to mutate so that it can spread from avian or even pigs to human beings. On top of that a most lethal virus strain may mutate so that it passes a number of hosts before doing its final toll and damage to humans - crippling international trade and economies. Imagine how we could function in our economy without goods from China, not only those goods but smaller components and pieces of work on item simply marked "Made in the United States"



The H5N1 "bird flu' strain that worries most of those who study the statically spread of diseases (epidemiologists) at present, caused a nasty shock in Hong Kong. Approximately ten ago this peril struck killing six people and forcing the Hong Kong authorities to in essence slaughter its entire flock of chicken , ducks and all other forms of poultry. Remarkably and amazingly the virus lay "dormant" in the field, only to resurface to do its damage in 2003.

Since, that point, according to the experts at the United Nations, avian flu has spread to over 65 countries in Europe, Africa, Asia and the Middle East. Untold millions of birds have been taken down and culled, some according to the books, others unreported .What worries the experts as well is the birds not taken down - that are in isolated remote areas off the beaten track, infected wild birds, and poultry whose demise would cause financial hardship to the farmers or storekeepers and although reported as officially destroyed in the culling process are not.

It appears that most of the cases reported in the spread of H5N1 flu have been mainly in the area of Vietnam, China (including Hong Kong), and Indonesia. However in a worrisome trend Burma and Pakistan have reported their first spread of human infections. Nearby to Pakistan both Bangladesh and India are not reporting major outbreaks of this scourge.

Experts warn that the only way the spread of the disease can be put under control is to get at the actual root source of the disease. If the disease is controlled at its initial base it cannot be prevalent and then spread from an initial base. Controlling the growth and cultivation of H5N1 avian virus is the most effective way of seeking control of this most lethal agent.

Overall from year to year the "flu" has a mortality of between quarters of a million to half a million people worldwide each year. Major flu outbreaks are referred to as "pandemics". A pandemic is a large scale outbreak of a disease over a large area.

In the case of the 1918 post World War 1 "Spanish Flu", a pandemic might have been said to attack the population of the city of Baltimore. 3100 people alone perished in Baltimore.

With modern methods of transportation the area of the pandemic would include the whole world. By the time the 1918 "Spanish flu" had run its course it is estimated that between 50 and 100 million people were killed - many of them in isolated areas of country.

If a pandemic of flu occurs the effects would be catastrophic for the globe - and not only for countries directly affected. Normal commerce and business functions would grind almost to a halt. By this stage of a spread of the flu virus most of the spread is from person to person. People would stay at home and not go work, where they might be infected by other people at work or along the normal course of the day. Even countries not directly infected would be affected. Not only would communications not be at high levels of service but international trade would shut down as countries lock their borders to keep out the spread of the H5N1 avian flu.

We live in a highly interdependent world where most products and services come from a number of sources and steps around the globe. Just one vital choke point of a step in a process of manufacturing or delivery of a products or services would be limited, restricted or even curtailed.

Luckily we live in a modern world today, not only with modern transportation and communication but the ability to plan ahead and coordinate efforts for both the treatment and most importantly the prevention of the spread of the H5N1 avian flu virus.