Technical analysis describes different ways of predicting the future of the stock/futures market based on its history. Unfortunately, technical analysis is not an exact science. Many prominent scientists label it as "voodoo science". They claim that due to market efficiency, if you use TA to find your entry positions, you're no better off than someone who chooses those positions randomly. Market efficiency means that all the available information is already calculated in the stock prices, and that you can only guess how the price will behave in the future.
The "voodoo science" theory would make sense if it wasn't for the fact that there is a significant number of traders who are able to consistently make profits in the stock/futures market. These traders use technical analysis as their main tool. Since any trader has or can have access to the same TA tools we have to ask how can a small group of traders consistently win and the other larger group, more or less consistently lose in the stock market game. What is it that winning traders know about technical analysis that gives them the upper hand?
The answer is simple: Technical Analysis works but not necessarily for the reason most people believe. Many successful traders don't want to share this secret. TA works because many people use it, and successful traders are able to predict how other people will react on the different TA indicators and signals. In other words, while the losing traders are using TA to determine their trades, the winning traders are winning because they know how the losers are going to react based on this data.
For example, when a price goes below one of the key moving averages, (MA's) many investors sell that instrument to protect themselves against additional losses. By doing so, they will drive the price of that instrument lower and that will prompt some traders to start short selling that instrument in anticipation of further decline. Prices continue the downward trend, forcing traders who were long on that stock to sell their positions because it is going below their stop limits.
This creates a domino effect as the price continues to decline. However, at this point, successful traders realize that most of the current price action was created artificially. They start to enter positions on the buy side and more often than not price starts to reverse. The losing traders have already sold their contracts based on the TA tools. The winning traders buy the contract because they understand that the fluctuation was temporary, and they seize the opportunity based on the losing trader's reactions.
No TA tool by itself will give you reliable buy or sell signals. There is no Holy Grail or magic black box that will give you the perfect, accurate signal. However, the combining of the right group of TA indicators with discipline and adequate trading capital has been the road to fortune for many traders. There is no reason why you cannot emulate their success.
Software For Technical Analysis
No matter which style of investment you are engaged, you have to meet and know the basic of technical analysis. As you know, fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two main ways to forecast the price trend. Fundamental analysis involves researching and evaluating the characteristics of the object. Technical analysis, on the other hand, pays
more attention to price movements.
To understand technical analysis, you have to believe three assumes: all market fundamentals are depicted in the actual market data; history repeats itself and therefore markets move in fairly predictable, or at least quantifiable, patterns; prices move in trends.
Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements by looking at purely market-generated data. Price data from a particular market is most commonly the type of information analyzed by a technician, though most will also keep a close watch on volume and open interest in futures contracts. Based on these information, there are many technical analysis methods which can be used as a tool to forecast the price trend, such method as chart research and technical indicators.
Chart research is the basic method of technical analysis. You can know a variety of charts patterns that show price action or specific trend. Trend is a term used to describe the persistence of price movement in one direction over time. Trends move in three directions: up, down and sideways.
Technical indicators can be expressed by the value of the indicator. The value will be up, down or same and you can get the signals which are coincident or leading the market. Technical indicators are objective, and you can be objective too.
Almost every trader uses one method or more of technical analysis. Even the most reverent follower of market fundamentals is likely to glance at price charts before executing a trade. At their most basic level, these charts help traders determine ideal entry and exit points for a trade. They provide a visual representation of the historical price action of whatever is being studied.
Genarally speaking, fundamental analysis can only judge which direction the market will move, and technical analysis can supply both direction and price. Remember, fundamental analysis is a very effective way to forecast economic conditions, but not necessarily exact market prices. And anthoer thing you should know is that fundamental analysis is not suitable for you to day trading or short term trading.
As you are only normal individual just like me, you can not get the ongoing first-hand information and should know technical analysis first.
On the surface, it might appear that technicians ignore the fundamentals of the market while surrounding themselves with charts and data tables. However, a technical trader will tell you that all of the fundamentals are already represented in the price. They are not so much concerned that a natural disaster or an awful inflation number caused a recent spike in prices as much as how that price action fits into a pattern or trend. And much more to the point, how that pattern can be used to predict future prices.
The bottom line when utilizing any type of analytical method, technical or otherwise, is to stick to the basics, which are methodologies with a proven track record over a long period. After finding a trading system that works for you, the more esoteric fields of study can then be incorporated into your trading toolbox.
After you have begun trading, the only thing you should do is that you stay focused and disciplined on the strategy or trading method. This will be the only way for you to be successful and profitable.
Both Martin Chandra & Paul Zou are contributors for EditorialToday. The above articles have been edited for relevancy and timeliness. All write-ups, reviews, tips and guides published by EditorialToday.com and its partners or affiliates are for informational purposes only. They should not be used for any legal or any other type of advice. We do not endorse any author, contributor, writer or article posted by our team.
Martin Chandra has sinced written about articles on various topics from First Date, Forex Guide and Forex Online. is a full-time investor. He has been researching investment strategies and make his own living. For more information please go to. Martin Chandra's top article generates over 9900 views. to your Favourites.