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In several weeks there will be a Presidential election in France which will end the 12

year reign of Jacques Chirac. It looks to be a close and interesting race, and the first

round of voting is on April 22. Here is a brief look at the top four candidates in the

polls.

There are in fact 12 candidates who have qualified to be on the ballot based on

obtaining the endorsement of at least 500 elected officials (mostly town mayors).

This list will be pared down to two, and a second round of voting will occur two weeks

after the first to decide the winner. The reason for two rounds of voting is that the

President must be elected by a majority of those voting, and that is virtually

impossible in one round with so many candidates.

Polls are notoriously inaccurate in France for choosing the eventual winner of an

election. Many people do not decide upon their choice until the end of the campaign,

and at best the polls are a snapshot of feelings on a given day.

The leading candidate in the polls thus far has been Nicolas Sarkozy, the leader of

the UMP party. M. Sarkozy is known to be tough, sometimes blunt, decisive, and

ambitious. He generally favors free enterprise as opposed to socialistic tinkering with

the economy and markets. In particular he opposes the mandatory 35 hour work

week limit passed several years ago by a socialist government. He is also outspoken

about the existing immigration policies in France. He recently resigned as Interior

Minister, a top cabinet position, in order to concentrate full-time on the campaign. He

has held a lead in the polls for some time, but that lead is normally only a few

percentage points. Polls currently indicate that he will be the top vote getter in the

first round and would defeat Mme Royal in a second round match-up but would lose

to Francois Bayrou in the second round.

The second strongest candidate in the polls thus far is Segolene Royal of the PS

(Parti Socialist). The PS is of course on the left of the political spectrum. Mme Royal

would be the first female President of France. One might say that she has a certain

advantage in that the UMP party with Jacques Chirac, her most significant

opponents, has held the office for 12 years, and the French might be ready for a

change. M. Chirac’s popularity is currently quite low, although it has picked up a bit

in recent weeks since he finally announced recently that he would not be a candidate

again. Mme Royal has been slightly behind in the polls, but it is entirely possible that

she can win.

The third strongest candidate in the polls thus far, Francois Bayrou of the centrist

UDF party, has been a surprise. At the beginning of the year his poll numbers were

low, about 6% intention to vote in the first round. He has steadily moved up in the

polls to over 20%, a major advance, and he is thus not far from Mme Royal and M.

Sarkozy. His centrist position seems to be appealing to the French, and in fact if he

manages to make it to the second round, the polls show him defeating both Sarkozy

and Royal! If he does not place in the top two, however, he will certainly have a large

voice in determining the eventual winner, assuming his followers will adhere to

whatever advice he chooses to give.

The fourth major factor in the campaign is Jean-Marie Le Pen, founder of the FN

party. M. Le Pen is still dynamic at over 80 years of age, and he has been an

outspoken factor in French politics for a long time. He actually made it to the second

round of the 2002 election by defeating the PS candidate. This was a huge shock

for the French at that time. It is inconceivable that M. Le Pen would ever be elected

President of France. His message is very much right wing, and he is a strong

nationalist and would certainly curtail immigration to France substantially. He is a

lightening rod for anti-immigration sentiment and has a loyal following with whom his

message resonates. Current polls show him at 13.5% intention to vote in round one,

rather far behind Sarkozy at 28%, Royal at 23%, and Bayrou at 21%, according to

the Ifop poll released on 30 March 2007. Le Pen surprised everyone in 2002,

however, and the polls did not predict his success at that time, so anything is

possible.

The other 8 candidates in the race, mostly from small far left or right wing parties, are

splitting up the remainder of the vote. No other candidate has more than 3.5%

intention to vote in the first round, according to the Ifop poll cited above. These

candidates are in the race to promote themselves and get their messages out as

best they can.

The upcoming Presidential election in France could easily be won by any of the top three candidates. The results for the first round should be known at about 2pm New York time on April 22, unless it is too close to call at that moment.

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