Guide to the Stock Market

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After Stock Market Crash

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Of late, fear psychology has gripped the investors in stocks. The mood of the market has become totally unpredictable; No one knows what will happen in the next second, and what would be the grim news when the market opens the next day. All the investments plans have gone haywire. You have lost confidence in your investment plans. These things happen with a stock market crash.



Investors all over the world, including USA, are stunned and feel cheated! The trusted share-market is paying the unbelievable tantrums. The deeply hurt are the middle-class and the retired people with limited savings. The savings which you thought you had wisely invested in a share portfolio has shrunk dramatically, and in some cases, been wiped out. You have stopped giving advice on investment matters, which you so generously poured out not long ago, to your investor friends. Nothing in the market comes out as per your calculations.

With this crash, the prices of shares sliding day after day, your confidence is shaken. You are constantly worried, how to get back the money that you have lost. Will you ever be able to recover it! Will you ever face the market with the same confidence with which you dealt with it in the recent past? Will you be able to regain the lost balanced mental attitude? Which is that power pulling strings that have totally confused the common investor and immobilized one's capacity to invest further? Is the market crash an unexpected occurrence?

The present crash is definitely not unexpected. They say, the coming events cast their shadows before! In the S& P500 monthly charts, the analysts clearly indicated that all is not going to be well with the stock market. They had predicted a long-term bullish posture in April 2003. They again indicated in November 2007, that the downturn is ahead and to get ready for the bearish market. That was the golden opportunity for the investors who possessed knowledge as to how to deal with the bearish developments.

Those with some knowledge of the behavior of the Exchange would never be able to forget the market crash of the 1929. This is linked to the Great Depression. Within a couple of months, the investors lost half of their money. October 29, 1929 is known as the Black Tuesday. This is the worst day in the history of the U. S. Stock Exchange. A record of 16.4 million shares was traded on that day. The investors lost $100 million within a month.

The investors hoped against hopes that the market conditions would improve. But the subsequent developments crushed the investors beyond redemption. They began to sell their holdings blindly and desperately. The market continued to confuse people week after weeks. The prosperous American economy was in shambles. The poor condition of the economy gave rise to unemployment, poverty, homelessness, adversely affected the education of children resulting in sharp increase in the number of school dropouts, crimes and many other social problems.

In reality, no one can blame the market. It behaves in the way it does, in the given conditions. People and policies make the market; it only complies as per the demands and the results of the Nation's policies. What happens in the Exchange is the consequential action. The majority of the investors, and the brokers, go by the market hype and blindly follow the trends of investments, without making independent research and analysis. The avalanche of yellow journals related to trading in shares and their advice as to how to get rich quickly, remains fresh in the minds of the investors and they hanker after profits. The warning signals are taken lightly and they hope against hopes that something dramatic will happen!

The best investment in the market is that which expects and meets the challenges of the worst possible situations. One should remain alert and know how to cash on the crash!
After Stock Market Crash
There has never been a correction that has not proven to be an investment opportunity. While everything is down in price, there is actually less to worry about than when prices are historically high. More money has been lost by people who bought into last year's markets than by those who will buy into this one, at this stage of the correction. When the going gets tough, the tough go shopping.

Every correction is different, the result of various economic and/or political circumstances that create the need for adjustments in the financial markets. This correction is worse than most that I've experienced, but the doom and gloom scenarios many have been pushing are unlikely to come to fruition. Once the media elects a new president, they'll just have to start reporting better news: 96% of all mortgages are current sounds a whole lot better than 20% of all sub-prime mortgages are in trouble.

Some fundamentals in many excellent companies have eroded significantly (due in part to accounting rules that are being changed), but for the most part, interest payments are being made and few dividends have been cut. Bargain prices abound in both the equity and fixed income markets and interest rates are historically low.

A cocktail of credit market laxatives is working its way into a constipated world economy. Relief is on the way. Today's prices may well be looked at as the lowest of the next ten years! Here's a list of things to think about or to do while Investment Grade value Stock prices are at ten-year lows:

Don't beat yourself up by looking at your account market value. You should expect it to be down significantly because all security prices have fallen. Look for ways to add to your portfolios---that's what the smart guys are doing.

Keep in mind that someone is buying the individual shares that the others are selling. The buyers will hold on until they can turn a profit, and the cash on the sidelines will eventually find its way back into the markets as prices rise.

There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy. Buying too soon, in the right portfolio percentage, is nearly as important to long-term investment success as selling too soon is during rallies.

Take a look at the future. Nope, you can't tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality securities now, as you certainly should be, you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time--- as you take yet another round of profits.

As, or if, the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely so that you can add to them safely later. There's more to "Shop at The Gap" than meets the eye, and you may run out of cash well before the new rally begins.

Cash flow is king, so take smaller profits sooner than usual as long as there are abundant buying opportunities. Today, nearly eighty percent of all Investment Grade Value Stocks are down more than 15% from their 52-week highs.

In looking at your income securities, cash flow is the primary concern; as long as it continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual/emotional issue. A loosening of the credit markets should move CEF prices back into normal ranges.

Note that Working Capital keeps growing in spite of falling prices. Examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase your yield on fixed income securities.

Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on Investment Grade Value Stocks; it's easier, generally less risky, and better for your peace of mind.

Stop examining your portfolio's performance in market value terms--- it leads to fearful, often frantic, decision-making. Keep your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus and try to think in terms of market and economic cycles as opposed to calendar quarters and years. The Working Capital Model provides a calmer way of dealing with portfolio dislocations during severe corrections.

So long as everything is down, there is really less to worry about. This is the result of panic selling by ETF and open-end mutual fund owners and the beginnings of year-end window dressing by fund managers.

Corrections, regardless of cause, will vary in depth and duration, but both characteristics are only clearly visible in rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable; the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. If you over-think the environment or over-cook the research, you'll miss the after-party.

Unlike many things in life, Stock Market realities need to be dealt with quickly, decisively, and with zero hindsight. Because amid all the uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact that reads equally well in either market direction: there has never been a correction/rally that has not succumbed to the next rally/correction.

Get out there and buy low for a change.
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